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ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

Technology evaluation of zero

-carbon power generation systems in Japan in terms of cost and CO 2 emissions

Toshihiro Inoue,Koichi Yamada

Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy,

Japan Science and Technology Agency

2019 4

th International Conference on Green Energy Technology

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

Outline

•Introduction

TechnologyissuestowardzeroCO

2 emission powergenerationsystem. •Methodology

REtech.scenariosandoptimalmulti-regional

power generation model. •Resultsanddiscussions •Conclusions 2

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

CO 2 emissions in Japan by sectors(2013 FY)

Energy consumption: 1.37 GJ/y

Power generation: 1,090 TWh/y

CO 2 emission from energy sector in Japan 1.24 Gt-CO 2 /y

Passenger

transportation 11%

Freight

transportation 7%

Household 5%

Office 3%Steel 10%

Other 6%

Power generation 53%

Agriculture,

forestry, fisheries 1%Ceramic 2%

Chemical 2%

3

LCS Technology

scenarios

Indicators of technology

(Cost, utility rate, parameters in operation)

Demand

curve

Elec. Demand

Totalcost of electricity system, CO

2 emissions

Power generation model䠄Cost minimized䠅

CO 2 emission reduction targets

Fluctuation constraints

Operating reserve, LFC,

Inertia䠅

Regional constraints

conditions of climate and location䠅

Trans mission constraints

cap and energy loss of trans䠅

Constraints eq.

0100200300

400

1471013161922

Cap. of storage

systems Fuels

Capacity of

transmission

Output & cap.

of power generation systemsSupply and demand balance

Regional

balance

Capacity constraints

Capacity, rate of output

change䠅

Storage system constraints

Pumped hydro, battery, H

2 䠅Seasonal balance

020406080

100
4 6 v 8 v 10 v 12 v 2 v 4

Apr Jul Oct Jan

Platform for Design & Evaluationof LCT

“Modeling Tool")

Automated process design support system developed by LCS. PFD

Equipmentsizing

Equipment cost & weight

Rawmaterials, utilities cost

Environmentalload

PFD withmass & energy

balance

Equipmentselection

& sizing

Equipmentcost& weight

Production cost & CO2

emissions PV

Battery

FC

Wind Power

Med-sized hydraulic

Geothermal

Woody biomass

Biogas

CCS 5

050100150200250300350

400

1471013161922

Base load plants

Coal, Nuclear, Hydro (Run-of-the-river),

Biomass, Geothermal

Load following power plants

LNG,Oil, Hydro(ROR. Pumped),

Hydrogen turbine, Battery output

Power generation with fluctuation

PV, Wind power

Storage sys.

Battery,

Pumped hydro,

Hydrogen

Electrolysis, H

2 turbine䠅

Constraints of

fluctuation LFC

10 min

GF : Sec. to Min.

䠄Average output of summer days, 2050 scenario)

Demand curve

GW

Stored (H

2 by electrolysis)

Stored

(Battery) hr *LFC: Load frequency control,

GF: Governor-free control

䞉Including system stability

Multi-regional power generation model

6

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

Grid system and the issues

•Short term: Go vernor Free,

LFC (Load frequency control)

•Long term:hourly, seasonal •Grid system stability (ageneratoris consideredsynchronized to the grid) LFC

10 min

GFSec. to Min.

Hokkaido7 GW

Tohoku17 GW

Tokyo66 GW

Hokuriku8 GW

Chubu33 GW

Kansai35 GW

Chugoku12 GW

Shikoku7 GW

Kyushu21 GW

Okinawa2 GW

Elec. Com. In Japan

500kV (AC)

275
-187 kV (AC)

250 kV (DC)

250 kV (DC)

Frequency Converter

AC/DC ConverterInstalled Generation CapacityAt the end of 2012 FY 7

050100150200

20102015202020252030

䠄Yen/W䠅

PV installed costs

䠄18%䠅

Compound tandem

䠄30%䠅

FutureOrg. mat.

tandem 䠄22%䠅 䠄25%䠅 mono -crystalline Silicon solar cell 䠄module efficiency

17%,wafer thicknessϭϴϬʅŵ

䠄13%䠅 future bright system

Thinner Si-wafer by new slicing tech

CIGS tandem by high speed process

Organic compound tandem

(20-30%)

Module

Cost Thin -film compound semiconductor solar cell 䠄CIGS䠅

New thin film

Organic, Perovskite etc.

䠄15%䠅Current status

Improved existing tech.

Future product

Stand

Power conditioner

BOS

Prospects of PV System Cost

䠄15%䠅 8

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

RE technology scenarios

Capacity

factor*

Power Cost [Yen/kWh]

Case,

Technology level**A

Tech.2015B

Tech.2020C

Tech.2030

PV11%16.09.55.7

Wind23%14.110.28.4

Geothermal

70%12.512.58.0

Geothermal HDR*

70%--6.9

Biomass70%33.610.910.9

Hydro54%10.810.810.8

*The capacity factors are calculated within the model. Standard capacity factors are used to estimate power cost that shows in t

his table.

**A Tech level 2015; current technology, B Tech level 2020; improving technology, C Tech level 2030; developing technology

***HDR: Hot dry rock geothermal power is optional technology 110

Yen= 1$

9

Battery (system cost)

19 Yen/Wh10 Yen/Wh6 Yen/Wh

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

Result

10

ICGET2019,July16-18Rome,Italy

7008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,400

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