[PDF] [PDF] Investec W&I – Morning Minutes 20072020 - Radcliffe IFA

20 juil 2020 · Facebook, Inc Q2 2020 Earnings Release Spec Sit 29 July 2020 PayPal Holdings, Inc Q2 2020 Earnings Release Green 30 July 2020



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[PDF] Investec W&I – Morning Minutes 20072020 - Radcliffe IFA

20 juil 2020 · Facebook, Inc Q2 2020 Earnings Release Spec Sit 29 July 2020 PayPal Holdings, Inc Q2 2020 Earnings Release Green 30 July 2020

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Morning Meeting 20 July 2020

Index+/-% changeCurrencies+/-

FTSE 1006290.339.60.6£:$1.254-0.011.151.33

FTSE All-Share3472.718.70.5Y:$107.1450.02102.55112.09 DJ Industrial Average26672.0-62.8-0.2E:£1.0970.001.071.20

S&P 5003224.79.20.3E:$1.1420.001.071.14

NASDAQ Composite Index10503.229.40.310 Yr BondYld %+/--3 months-12 months Nikkei Japan 1000 Index1882.2-6.6-0.3UK0.160.030.290.86

Hang Seng Index25089.2118.50.5US0.620.010.662.06

EURO STOXX 50 (EUR)3365.60.30.0Germany-0.460.02-0.48-0.30

Switzerland SMI (PR)10410.5-22.9-0.2Price (p)+/-

France CAC 405069.4-15.9-0.3

Germany DAX (TR)12919.644.60.3Investec plc174.45-1.95128.8511.4

Matrix WinnersPrice+/-% change% changeMkt Wt

Renishaw plc4880.0450.010.22.60.8

Fresnillo PLC1091.547.54.52.350.8

Ted Baker PLC76.03.34.52.160.4

Hammerson plc78.83.34.41.80.1

Capita plc39.21.64.41.81.8

Matrix LosersPrice+/-% change% changeMkt Wt

Micro Focus International plc294.0-11.8-3.9-1.37.1

Hays plc120.2-4.8-3.8-1.28.2

Syncona Ltd GBP254.0-10-3.8-0.81.1

easyJet plc663.0-22.2-3.2-0.50.2

Carnival plc1014.5-30.5-2.9-0.53.8

Stocks Hitting Relative HighStocks Hitting Relative Low

Antofagasta plcHurricane Energy Plc

BHP Group PlcMicro Focus International plc

Flutter Entertainment PlcShaftesbury PLC

Fresnillo PLC-

Renishaw plc-

Rio Tinto plc-

FTSE All-Share / Travel & Leisure - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Forestry & Paper - SEC

12 month range

12 month range

Sector Winners

FTSE All-Share / Electricity - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Health Care Equipment & Services - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Industrial Transportation - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Leisure Goods - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Mobile Telecommunications - SEC

Sector Losers

FTSE All-Share / Banks - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Oil & Gas Producers - SEC

FTSE All-Share / Nonlife Insurance - SEC

Companies discussed in Morning Meeting

UK Equities

Renishaw Company Update

International Equities None

2

Overview

Weekly Theme: Vaccine Hopes Inoculating Investor Sentiment.

Friday:

" US markets +0.3%. " Shrugged off drop in University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey.

Weekly Market Features:

" Global Equities in £ +2.2%. UK Outperformed, US Underperformed. Europe Best Performer.

Fixed Income:

" Global Government bond markets: Although UK 10 year yield hit new lows on Thursday of 14 basis points, it closed above 16 basis points, one point above where it began. US 10 year yields were 2 basis points lower at 0.63%. Bunds were two basis points higher at -0.45%. " US$ Credit Markets saw spreads narrow marginally in Investment Grade (by 7 basis points to

1.36%), but more substantially in High Yield, which saw a 0.4% narrowing to just under 5.6%.

3 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0 200
400
600
800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

2,000Gold Price

Gold $Gold in £Gold In Yuan

Commodities & Foreign Exchange

" Gold Price New High " Oil price little changed

Developments

under-taxing them. " EU Corona Virus Recovery fund talks began on Friday. " US COVID cases surge continued. " U.K. GDP for May reported at 1.8% v +5% expected, following on from the -20.3% registered in

April.

" Corporate earnings season began investment banks earnings were delivered better than forecasts.

Weekend press

" U.K.: report to be published on Russia interference in elections. UK will also highlight hacking of

Vaccine research. Russia indicate they are likely to begin testing vaccine imminently, with

expectations of large scale production by Christmas. This would be the fourth vaccine to enter stage three trials (joining Oxford, Moderna and China initiatives). " FT Gavin Davies article highlights risk of Double dip, through Covid re- is above 1 in all but 5 US states. " EU recovery fund agreement talks drag through into Monday. The issue De more in favour of loans, less in favour of grants. The original proposal pencilled- grants / loans which would tie them to compliance with European norms for political freedom. " China - U.K. suspends extradition treaty (Sunday) with HK. China retaliations beginning? Chinese students? TikTok global HQ? 4

Covid update

" 14m cases recorded " 600,000 deaths " Sat: 260,000 new cases record daily number. " CDC says covid under control in 4-8 weeks if everyone wore a mask

US politics update

" Donald Trump odds of becoming president faded by 1% last week (Biden increased by 1%) " Texas polling - reported neck & neck: The last time Texas voted Democrat was to elect Jimmy

Carter.

" Today Markets Asia mixed HK off 0.4%, CSI300 +2.8%, Japan Flat. Europe opening down 1%.

Week ahead

Key Topics:

" Corporate Earnings

" 88 releases from S&P 500 companies and another 76 from the STOXX 600. In terms of the

highlights to look out for, today we have IBM. Tomorrow Novartis, The Coca-Cola Company, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris, Lockheed Martin and UBS. Wednesday Microsoft, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Tesla. Thursday sees Roche, Intel, AT&T, Unilever, Union Pacific, Daimler, Twitter and Hyundai release earnings. Finally on Fri -

Mobile and American Express.

" Based on consensus forecasts, S&P 500 earnings for the second quarter of 2020 are expected to fall -45.8% year-over-year on -11.3% lower revenues, following an earnings decline of -15.6% in the first quarter. This is the largest drop in twelve years, when the S&P 500 posted a -68% year- over-year earnings decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. " Ex--40.5% year-over-year, while ex-financials the index estimate stands at -43.2%. " Disagreement amongst analysts covering the same stock, or earnings estimate dispersions, are high in part due to lack of guidance from company managements given the unknown impacts of the covid-19 - the number of companies issuing guidance for 2Q2020 is 54% below the five-year average. 5 " Year over year Earnings Growth Rates are expected to Trough in the Second Quarter: Q3 & Q4 currently see year-over-year earnings decline estimates of -26% and -13%. Q1:2021 is expected to see a return to positive growth. Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation benefit which expires on 25 July without being replaced. This would catalyse a 60% drop in income for those on these benefits. Replacing the

benefits is part of overall extended stimulus package initiatives being proposed by the rival political

parties. The House Democrats are seeking a $3.4tn spending package, Republicans are looking to limit the new spending to $1tnn. " FOMC next week July 28/29

Corporate News today

" Synairgen, a UK respiratory drug company, announced that its candidate SNG001 reduced risk of getting severe Covid-19 disease by 79%. The drug works by boosting a naturally-occurring

chemical that helps coordinate antiviral disease. It is commonly used and safe. This will add

another important tool to the toolbox. " Charles Schwab indicate online trading has surged since the pandemic which may be reflected in Hargreaves Lansdown. " Intesa (Italian Bank) & UBI merger terms sweetened European Bank consolidation could be a positive force for Financials. " UK Press coverage focussed on who is cutting jobs Airlines and retailers.

Economic Data

" Mon 20 July " None significant " Tue 21 July " Japan Machine Tool Orders - June (indicator of China / Global Industrial demand) " UK Public Sector Borrowing June " Wed 22 July " Japan Preliminary PMIs - July " US housing price data " Thu 23 July " US Weekly jobless claims est 1.5m v 1.3m previously. " Germany GFK Consumer Confidence August " Europe Consumer Confidence - July " Fri 24 July " Preliminary PMIs (Services & Industrial): US, UK, Euro Area " Misc " U.K. Uber appeal to Supreme Court over status of drivers. 60,000 drivers in U.K. 4.7m in Gig economy. 6 4% ( 16%) 6%

2%0%1%4%

( 3%) 9%10% ( 26%) ( 29%) 26%
0% 5% 1% ( 40%) ( 30%) ( 20%) ( 10%) 0% 10% 20% 30%
Asset Class Performance (£ -Total Return) Year To 17-Jul-20 5.9% ( 12.0%) 9.6%

3.3%6.3%

2.1% 5.9% 1.2%

9.5%6.5%

( 14.3%) ( 30.5%) 25.0%
0.0% ( 0.2%) 3.6% ( 40.0%) ( 30.0%) ( 20.0%) ( 10.0%) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Asset Class Returns

Total Return in £ Last 12 Months

7

Events Calendar

DateCompanyEventFlagConsensusAnalystFirm HoldingsRPPINRPPIBGLPRPPUK

21 July 2020BHP Group PlcJune 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Operational ResultsGreenOUTPERFORMZB£77,893,230

21 July 2020Intermediate Capital Group PlcQ1 2021 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading StatementROUTPERFORMTM/JH£708,513

21 July 2020Novartis AGQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightJMu£27,179,1753.193.371.87

21 July 2020UBS Group AGQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightTM/JH£6,287,3222.422.56

21 July 2020SGS SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldGE£1,256,658

21 July 2020The Coca-Cola Co.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightGE£9,819,462

21 July 2020Philip Morris International, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitBuyTD£864,939

21 July 2020Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightJMu£10,583,4172.092.061.94

22 July 2020Antofagasta PlcQ2 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Production ReportSunset/OtherNMZB£514,274

22 July 2020Britvic PlcQ3 2020 Sales and Revenue ReleaseROUTPERFORMGE£519,839

22 July 2020Close Brothers Group PlcQ4 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Pre Close Trading UpdateRHOLDTM/JH£2,611,268

22 July 2020Melrose Industries PlcQ1 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading UpdateSpec SitOUTPERFORMJMu£32,908,538

22 July 2020Northern Trust Corp.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldTM/JH£9,745,9102.492.632.36

22 July 2020Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightJMu£47,132,8713.623.833.89

22 July 2020Microsoft Corp.Q4 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueBuySL£74,558,5094.513.213.49

23 July 2020Croda International PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHOLDZB£36,433,8661.702.69 4.26

23 July 2020Daily Mail & General Trust PlcQ3 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading UpdateRUNDERPERFORMSL£810,531

23 July 2020Howden Joinery Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDGE£270,041

23 July 2020RELX PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOUTPERFORMSL£131,470,722 3.43 5.26

23 July 2020The Sage Group PlcQ3 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading UpdateBlueUNDERPERFORMSL£63,191,537 3.75

23 July 2020Tate & Lyle PlcQ1 2021 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading StatementRHOLDEH£4,780,387

23 July 2020Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.Q3 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightZB£1,018,721

23 July 2020Roche Holding AGQ2 2020 Earnings Release#N/ANMNM

23 July 2020Danaher Corp.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueBuyJMu£25,653,1184.12 3.70

24 July 2020Centrica PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDGE£1,424,589

24 July 2020IMI PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMJMu£4,543,216

24 July 2020Pearson PlcInterim 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDSL£1,340,503

24 July 2020Vodafone Group PlcQ1 2021 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMSL£104,708,041

24 July 2020Hexagon ABQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldTM£7,603,857

24 July 2020Schlumberger NVQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSunset/OtherOverweightZB£1,013,222

27 July 2020SAP SEQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightSL£9,844,3903.532.49

27 July 2020LVMH Mo 1/4t Hennessy Louis Vuitton SEQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightTD£28,156,4022.90 3.23

28 July 2020Greggs PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDEH£20,633,427

28 July 20203M Co.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSunset/OtherHoldJMu£6,046,979

28 July 2020Reckitt Benckiser Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMEH£108,458,707

28 July 2020St. James's Place PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMTM/JH£1,711,219

28 July 2020Roper Technologies, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightJMu£16,123,0172.722.161.55

28 July 2020Visa, Inc.Q3 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenBuyASh£68,264,2383.902.732.99

28 July 2020Mondelez International, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueBuyEH£13,537,644

28 July 2020Beyond Meat, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitHoldASh£4,389,345

29 July 2020Next PlcQ2 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading StatementGreenHOLDEH£11,078,842

29 July 2020SanofiQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitOverweightJMu£718,960

29 July 2020Tullow Oil PlcQ2 2020 Sales and Revenue ReleaseSunset/OtherHOLDZB£56,622

29 July 2020The Weir Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDZB£4,499,854

29 July 2020Barclays PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMTM/JH£32,516,280

29 July 2020Smith & Nephew PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMJMu£80,124,378 4.16

29 July 2020Taylor Wimpey PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMTBC£10,671,654

29 July 2020Rio Tinto PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueHOLDZB£243,605,4423.153.33 5.10

29 July 2020GlaxoSmithKline PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDJMu£193,329,858

29 July 2020The Boeing Co.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightGE£1,262,443

29 July 2020Facebook, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitOverweightASh£7,453,421

29 July 2020PayPal Holdings, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenBuyTM/JH£36,809,005 2.79

30 July 2020Anglo American PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMZB£5,773,605

30 July 2020AstraZeneca PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMJMu£251,975,988 3.58 6.27

30 July 2020BAE Systems PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMGE£20,462,625

30 July 2020Compass Group PlcQ3 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading UpdateBlueOUTPERFORMGE£107,585,0231.502.38 3.08

30 July 2020Equiniti Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMGE£1,963,111

30 July 2020Total SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueBuyZB£11,927,4401.701.80

30 July 2020LafargeHolcim Ltd.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitBuyZB£262,318

30 July 2020Lloyds Banking Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMTM/JH£32,045,295

30 July 2020Morgan Advanced Materials PlcQ2 2020 Earnings Release#N/ANMNM

30 July 2020Schroders PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHOLDTM/JH£29,062,065

30 July 2020Smart Metering Systems PlcQ2 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading UpdateROUTPERFORMGE£549,596

30 July 2020Standard Chartered PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitHOLDTM/JH£21,563,666 1.97

30 July 2020Ultra Electronics Holdings PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMGE£2,826,869

30 July 2020Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightTD£358,442

30 July 2020Credit Suisse Group AGQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightTM/JH£1,296,136

30 July 2020Nestl (R) SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOverweightEH£44,536,048 1.98

30 July 2020Danone SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightEH£2,273,635

30 July 2020Royal Dutch Shell PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueOUTPERFORMZB£241,470,4931.731.831.653.38

30 July 2020RSA Insurance Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRBUYTM/JH£3,770,348

30 July 2020Linde PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightZB£80,855

30 July 2020Procter & Gamble Co.Q4 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightEH£9,889,611

30 July 2020Xylem, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitHoldJMu£18,054,146 2.27

30 July 2020Alphabet, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenBuyASh£35,336,2863.553.42

30 July 2020L'Or (R)al SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldEH£2,670,873

30 July 2020Vivendi SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitBuySL£4,736,587

30 July 2020Electronic Arts, Inc.Q1 2021 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitOverweightSL£5,170,435

30 July 2020Apple, Inc.Q3 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightSL£62,471,1052.59 2.77

8

31 July 2020British American Tobacco plcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueBUYTD£77,167,689 2.89

31 July 2020BNP Paribas SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightTM/JH£2,726,317

31 July 2020BT Group PlcQ1 2021 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMSL£6,004,398

31 July 2020Fresenius SE & Co. KGaAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitOverweightJMu£223,581

31 July 2020International Consolidated Airlines Group SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMSL£1,933,147

31 July 2020Intertek Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenUNDERPERFORMGE£24,430,475 3.43

31 July 2020Legrand SAQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldTM£928,775

31 July 2020London Stock Exchange Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMTM/JH£47,722,9783.512.93 4.66

31 July 2020Chevron Corp.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSunset/OtherOverweightZB£6,751,454

31 July 2020Glencore PlcQ2 2020 Sales and Revenue Release - Production ResultsROUTPERFORMZB£684,877

31 July 2020Royal Bank of Scotland Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMTM/JH£3,541,282

31 July 2020Exxon Mobil Corp.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSunset/OtherHoldZB£3,638,974

31 July 2020Illinois Tool Works, Inc.Q2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenHoldJMu£5,216,996

03 August 2020HSBC Holdings PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueHOLDTM/JH£107,993,695 3.49

03 August 2020Renishaw PlcQ4 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitUNDERPERFORMJMu£4,461,948

03 August 2020Siemens Healthineers AGQ3 2020 Earnings ReleaseSunsetHoldJMu£64,535

04 August 2020Bayer AGQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseSpec SitOverweightJMu£4,756,941

04 August 2020BP PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOUTPERFORMZB£93,330,565 2.07

04 August 2020Diageo PlcQ4 2020 Earnings ReleaseBlueHOLDGE£275,564,9612.881.982.013.72

04 August 2020Direct Line Insurance Group PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseROUTPERFORMTM/JH£654,010

04 August 2020Rotork PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDZB£2,376,615

04 August 2020Spectris PlcQ2 2020 Earnings ReleaseRHOLDJMu£2,005,819

04 August 2020The Walt Disney Co.Q3 2020 Earnings ReleaseGreenOverweightSL£41,781,9412.903.062.60

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