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Empirical Evidence and Tax Polic

y Desi g n:

Lessons from the Mirrlees Review

44
th

Annual Conference of the CEA

May 2010

Richard Blundell

Universit

y Colle g e London and Institute for Fiscal Studies yg

© Institute for Fiscal Studies

Empirical Evidence and Tax Policy Design

•First, a little background to the Mirrlees Review•

Then a discussion on the role of evidence loosely

Then a discussion on the role of evidence loosely organised under five headings: 1

Key margins of adjustment to tax reform

1 Key margins of adjustment to tax reform

2.Measurement of effective tax rates3.The importance of information, complexity and salience

4.Evidence on the size of res

p onses p

5.Implications for tax design•

Focus on earnings tax and indirect tax design as

Focus on earnings tax and indirect tax design as leading examples

The Mirrlees Review

Reforming the Tax System for the 21st CenturyReforming the Tax

System

for the 21st

Century

Editorial Team

Ch i

Si J Mi l

Ch a i rman: Si r J ames Mi rr l ees

Tim Besley (LSE & IFS)

Richard Blundell (UCL & IFS)Richard

Blundell

(UCL IFS)

Malcolm Gammie QC (One Essex Court & IFS)

James Poterba (MIT & NBER)

Stuart Adam (IFS)

Steve Bond (Oxford & IFS)

Robert Chote (IFS)Robert

Chote (IFS)

Paul Johnson (IFS & Frontier)

Gareth M

y les

Exeter & IFS

y( )

The Mirrlees Review

•Review of tax design from first principles

-For modern open economies in general and UK in particular -Reflect changes in the world, changes in our understanding

and increased empirical knowledge •Two volumes: 'Dimensions of Tax Desi g n ':a set of 13 cha p ters on p articular g pp areas co-authored by international experts and IFS researchers, along with expert commentaries (MRI) -'Tax by Design' :an integrated picture of tax design and reform, written by the editors (MRII) h// if k/ilRi/blii h ttp: www. if s.org.u k/ m i rr l ees R ev i ew pu bli cat i ons •MRI on the web and at OUP. Dimensions of Tax Design:commissioned chapters and expert commentaries (1) •The base for direct taxation

James Banks and Peter Diamond; Commentators: Robert Hall; John Kay; Pierre Pestieau•Means testing and tax rates on earnings

Mike Brewer, Emmanuel Saez and Andrew Shephard; Commentators: Hilary Hoynes; Guy Laroque; Robert Moffitt•Value added tax and excises

Ian Crawford, Michael Keen and Stephen Smith; Commentators: Richard Bird; Ian Dickson/David White; Jon Gruber•Environmental taxation Don Fullerton, Andrew Leicester and Stephen Smith; Commentators:

Lawrence Goulder; Agnar SandmoLawrence

Goulder;

Agnar

Sandmo

•Taxation of wealth and wealth transfers Robin Boadway, Emma Chamberlain and Carl Emmerson;

Commentators:

Helmuth Cremer; Thomas Piketty; Martin Weale

Commentators:

Helmuth

Cremer;

Thomas

Piketty;

Martin

Weale Dimensions of Tax Design:commissioned chapters and expert commentaries (2) •International capital taxation Rachel Griffith, James Hines and Peter Birch Sørensen; Commentators: Julian Alworth Ro g er Gordon and Jerr y

Hausman

;g y •Taxing corporate income Alan Auerbach, Mike Devereux and Helen Simpson; Commentators:

Harry Huizinga; Jack MintzHarry

Huizinga;

Jack Mintz •Taxation of small businesses Claire Crawford and Judith Freedman•The effect of taxes on consumption and saving

Orazio Attanasio and Matthew Wakefield

Administration and compliance

Jonathan Shaw Joel Slemrod and John

Administration

and compliance

Jonathan

Shaw Joel

Slemrod

and John Whiting; Commentators: John Hasseldine; Anne Redston; Richard

Highfield

Political economy of tax reform,

James Alt, Ian Preston and Luke

Political

economy of tax reform, James Alt, Ian

Preston

and Luke

Sibieta; Commentator: Guido Tabellini

labour supply responses for individuals and families

Increased empirical knowledge:- some examples

labour supply responses for individuals and families -at the intensive and extensive margins- b y a g e and demo g ra p hic structure yg gp •taxable income elasticities

-top of the income distribution using tax return information•consumer responses to indirect taxation

-importance (or not) of nonseparability and variation in price elasticities•intertemporal responses -consumption, savings and pensions•Income uncertainty -persistence and magnitude of earnings shocks over the life-cycle• ability to (micro )simulate marginal and average rates ability to (micro )simulate marginal and average rates -simulate 'optimal' reforms

Empirical Evidence and Tax Policy Design

•Here I will focus on earnings taxation and indirect taxation:• Leading examples of the mix of theory and evidence

Kiliti ftdi

K ey i mp li ca ti ons f or t ax d es i gn •Earnings taxation, in particular, takes most of the strain in distributional adjustments of other parts of the reform p acka g e pg

Et i dit i i flb l

Key Margins of Adjustment•

E x t ens i ve an d i n t ens i ve marg i ns o f l a b our supp l y •Its not all the extensive margin -Intensive and extensive margins both matter-

They matter for tax policy evaluation and design

A nd the y matter in different wa y s b y a g e and yyyg demographic groups

G tti it i ht f

G e tti ng it r i g ht f or men

Employment for men by age - FR, UK and US 2007

90%100%

FRUK

60%70%80%

UKUS

40%50%60%20%30%40%

0%10% 20%

Blundell, Bozio and Laroque (2010)

Total Hours for men by age - FR, UK and US 2007

2000
FRUK

15001750

US 1000
1250

500750

0250

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

Blundell, Bozio and Laroque (2010)

Total Hours for men by age in the UK: 1977 - 2007

225020002250

20071977

15001750

197719871997

10001250

500750

0250
6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 1 6 1 9 2 2 2 5 2 8 3 1 3 4 3 7 4 0 4 3 4 6 4 9 5 2 5 5 5 8 6 1 6 4 6 7 7 0 7 3

Blundell, Bozio and Laroque (2010)

Et i d t i i f

Key Margins of Adjustment•

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