❖ So, from 1 January 2020, new transactions cannot reference EONIA ❖ A transition to ESTER is necessary Page 8 8 Source: ECB MMSR
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EONIA at a glance: EONIA (“Euro Overnight Index Average”) is the benchmark 1- day interbank interest rate for the Euro zone It is produced by the European
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16 oct 2019 · EONIA in its current form will not become BMR compliant, given the lack of underlying transactions and high concentration of volumes by only a
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La réponse législative de la BCE est donc d'en finir avec le taux EONIA, jusqu'ici externalisé L'UE fait donc « machine arrière » et met en avant le taux ESTR
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Finally, ESTER relies on the full range of wholesale overnight bank borrowing operations,14 whereas EONIA is calculated using only interbank lending operations
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❖ So, from 1 January 2020, new transactions cannot reference EONIA ❖ A transition to ESTER is necessary Page 8 8 Source: ECB MMSR
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Euro OverNight Index Average (EONIA) is the rate at which banks of sound - 0 52 -0 5 -0 48 -0 46 Rate Comparison (EUR) O/N Euro LIBOR ESTR O/N
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ConnexMe: AFTE2018 #JAFTE2018
Camille de Courcel
Stratégiste taux
BNP Paribas UK
Louis de Longeaux
Avocat
Herbert Smith Freehills
Franck Hebeisen
Consultant et membre du
steeringcommitteede ů'Cédric Dondain
Responsable trésorerie internationale
et creditmanagementServier Laboratoires
Cyril Merkel
Trader in the dealing room
Sanofi & président de la
commission "placements»ͻCrise de liquidité
ͻCrise de solvabilité2007
ͻWSJ publie un article sur des suspicions de
manipulations sur le LiborͻDébut des enquêtes du US DoJsur
manipulations sur le LiborΨ͕ά͕Φ͘͘ĂǀĞĐͻImage des banques ternie
2012Les régulateurs et la réforme des benchmarks
ͻFinancial StabilityBoard2009
ͻDodd-Franck Wall Street Reformand
Consumer Protection ACT2010
ͻESMA, ABE et AEAPP2011
ͻIOSCO "Principlesfor Financial
benchmarks»2013ͻBMR publication2016
ͻBMR application2018
AvantIndice géré par la profession
Pas d'autorité de tutelle du
participants de marché et transactions réellesRègles déontologiques
"libres» et droit communAprès
Administration indice par
organisme indépendant (ICE,Superviseur pour le
participants de marchéCalcul basé sur des
transactions réellesRègles déontologiques :
réglementation et droit commun Cible CibleICE, EMMI ..
BMR compliant
Superviseur
Calcul basé sur des
transactions réellesRéglementation et droit
communTransition
Problématique
Nouveau périmètre
Exposition juridique forte pour les établissements contributeurs et leurs opérateursRisque juridique en l'absence de directive adhoc
CibleProblématique
Coûts
Nouveau périmètre
Marché sous jacent
Exposition juridique
opérationnelleRisque juridique
transitionRéponses
Couts de souscriptions, adaptations internes
ESTER (EONIA),
Euribor méthode hybride
RFR au lieu indice BOR
Tentation de sortir des panels
(pas possible pour ESTER)Directive, transactions bilatérales?
Réponse ?
7EUR Risk-Free Rate: Welcome, ESTER
AdministratorECB
Reporting agents52 banks reporting to the ECB's Money Market Statistical Reporting (MMSR) datasetEligible transactionsMoney market, overnight deposits collected by those 52 MMSR agents from their financial counterparties(described
as 'wholesale' by the ECB) Excluded transactionsTransactions smallerthanEUR 1m CalculationsVolume-weighted trimmed mean at 25% level (top and bottom 25% removed) PublicationBy 9am CET on the following business dayTimelineESTER will start to be officially published by October 2019 -in the meantime the ECB is publishing 'pre-ESTER'
ECB Working Group meeting on 13 September 2018: the Working Group unanimously chose to recommended ESTER (Euro Short-Term Rate)
as the new risk-free rate (RFR) for the EUREONIA is not BMR-compliant.
So, from 1 January 2020, new transactions cannot reference EONIA.A transition to ESTER is necessary.
8Source: ECB MMSR, BNP Paribas
0 5 10 15 20 2530
35
40
45
50
55
60
Mar 17Jun 17Sep 17Dec 17Mar 18Jun 18
Interbank lendingInterbank borrowing
Wholesale borrowingFinancial corporations borrowing Averagedaily turnover during the Maintenance Period (EUR bn) 0 100200
300
400
500
600
700
0 10 20 30
40
50
60
70
Mar 17Jul 17Nov 17Mar 18Jul 18
Number of reporting banks
Daily turnover (EUR bn)
Percentage of volumes reported by the largest five banksNumber of transactions (rhs)
MMSR: Financial corpborrowings 5 times greater than interbank 0 10 20 3040
50
60
70
80
20032005200720092011201320152017
Daily volumes (EUR bn)
Bi-weekly moving average
ESTER versus EONIA: Key differences
Representativeness: MMSR agents versus Panel banksEONIA: Daily volumes below EUR 1bn several times in May (low of
EUR 0.5bn), average EUR 4.3bn in 2018
ESTER: EUR 33bn average daily turnover in 2018
Source: ECB, EMMI , BNP Paribas (* ECB: over the August 2016 ʹmid-Jan 2018 period; total NC = 4%)Source: EMMI, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas
Source: ECB MMSR, BNP Paribas
ESTEREONIA
Banks participating52 MMSR agents28 Panel banks
Average number of banks
reporting daily vol.3112Lowest number of banks
reporting daily vol.246Average number of
countries represented106 EONIA panel52 reporting banksAverage share of daily vol.*28 Panel banksAT2%NC4%
BEL6%15%4%
FIN2%NC7%
FRA27%36%18%
GER29%22%21%
GRE2%NC4%
IRE2%NC4%
ITA12%1%11%
NET8%17%4%
SPA12%5%14%
LUX, POR, UK4% each
MMSR data
9ESTER versus EONIA: Statistics
EONIA/ESTER: 91% of the time >8bp and <10bpFrom EONIA to ESTERSource: ECB MMSR, EMMI, BNP Paribas
Source: ECB, EMMI, BNP Paribas (all data based on MMSR data except for EONIA) -0.60 -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 Mar 17May 17Jul 17Sep 17Nov 17Jan 18Mar 18May 18Jul 18EONIAInterbank lending
Interbank borrowingWholesale borrowing
Non financials (implied)ESTER
Non-bank financials (implied)
Averageinterest rates through Maintenance Periods (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25-0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10
Mar 17Jun 17Sep 17Dec 17Mar 18Jun 18
Pre-ESTEREONIAESTER/EONIA spread (bp, rhs)%
EONIA/ESTER statsMar-17 to Jul-18
Min5.9
Avg9.0
Median8.8
Max21.5
]8;10[91%From 1 Aug 2016 to 15 Jan 2018
Min5.2
Avg9.1
Max21.5
From 2 June 2008 to mid-Jan 2018*
Min0.0
Avg7.7
Max42.3
EONIA vs ESTER(bp)
EONIA Panel banks lending vs MMSR interbank lendingJan-17 to Jul-18-0.8 MMSR interbank lending vs borrowingJan-17 to Jul-186.2 Interbank borrowing vs all financials (trimmed)Jan-17 to Jul-183.9TrimmingAug-16 to Jan-181.5
10 Transition to ESTER: Methodology to be agreed with key stakeholders18 October 2018: Criteria for recommending an EONIA transition path
19 December 2018: Recommendation on the transition path
Q1 2019: Consultation on proposed transition
Q3-Q4 2019: EONIA follows the set transition path after ESTER starts being published betweenEONIAandESTER.Successor rate transition
apparentconceptualsimplicity? 2Market-led transition: ESTER co-exits with EONIA
Withoutatransitionperiod(puremarketled).
1January2020?
1Potential
paths 11Timeline for reform of EURIBOR & EUR RFR
EURIBOR: Live
testing of hybrid methodology May 2018July 2018
Sep 2018
Nov 2018
Dec 2018
Working group
choose to recommendESTER as the risk-
free rate for euro Oct 2019ECB to publish ESTERby
October 2019
EURIBOR: Second
consultationEURIBOR: Phased transition to hybrid
methodology to be completed by end 2019EURIBOR: Key changes come
into effect on 3 Dec:Individual contributions
no longer published;Discontinuation of 2w, 2m
and 9m tenors;Discontinuation of 30/360
and Act/365 basis. Oct 2018Dec 2019