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THE GLOBALFINANCIAL CENTRES INDEXSeptember 2009

en 6

THE GLOBALFINANCIAL CENTRES INDEXen

6

The Global Financial Centres Index

Background & Introduction 1

The Main Themes of GFCI 6

A Return of Confidence 2

Connectivity and Co-operation 3

The Global Leaders 4

Rise of the Asian Centres 8

North American Centres 13

European Centres 15

Offshore Centres 17

Industry Sectors 22

The Five Key Areas of Competitiveness 23

Summary & Conclusions 26

Other Information from GFCI 6 27

Instrumental Factors 28

Contents

1 The Global Financial Centres Index(GFCI) was first produced by the Z/Yen Group for the City of London in March 2007. It rated and ranked each major financial centre in the world in terms of competitiveness. Since then, the increase in the number of respondents and additional data in successive editions has highlighted the changing priorities and concerns of financial services professionals. This 6th edition of GFCI provides ratings and rankings for 75 financial centres, up from 62 in GFCI 5, calculated by a 'factor assessment model'. This combines instrumental factors (external indices) with assessments of financial centres from responses to an online questionnaire: ?Instrumental factors:Previous research indicates that there are many factors that combine to make a financial centre competitive. These can be grouped into five overarching areas of competitiveness - People, Business Environment, Infrastructure, Market

Access and General Competitiveness. Objective

evidence of these areas of competitiveness is provided by a wide variety of comparable sources.

For example, evidence about the infrastructure

competitiveness of a financial centre is drawn from a survey of property and an index of occupancy costs. Evidence about a fair and just business environment is drawn from a corruption perception index and an opacity index. A review of the instrumental factors used in the GFCI model has been undertaken to ensure that the most up to date, comprehensive evidence is used from the most reliable sources. There are 64 instrumental factors used in the GFCI 6 model, up from 57 in

GFCI 5 (see page 31). Of these factors, 24 have

been updated since GFCI 5, 10 are direct replacements for factors used in GFCI 5 and 15 are completely new to the GFCI model. These new additions include an index of tax information exchange agreements, an index of global intellectual property and three new measures of transport infrastructure. Not all financial centres are represented in all the external sources, and the statistical model takes account of these gaps. ?Financial centre assessments: Responses to anongoing online questionnaire completed by international financial services professionals (who assess financial centres with which they are familiar). The online questionnaire runs continuously to keep the GFCI up-to-date with people's changing assessments. Since GFCI 5, 566 additional respondents have filled in the online questionnaire and been included in the model, thereby providing

14,877 new assessments from financial services

professionals across the world. A total of 36,497 financial centre assessments from 1,802 financial services professionals are used to compute GFCI 6.

The assessments used in the GFCI model were

collected over a two year period from July 2007 to

June 2009. The assessments are discounted

according to age so that the most recent carry more weighting. Where the most recent assessments are referred to, this means those collected in the

6- month period since GFCI 5 was computed -

January to June 2009.

The instrumental factors and financial centre

assessments are combined using statistical techniques to build a predictive model of financial centre competitiveness using support vector machine mathematics. The predictive model is used to answer questions such as: "If an investment banker gives Singapore and Sydney certain assessments, then, based on the instrumental factors for Singapore,

Sydney and Paris, how would that person

assess Paris?" Full details of the methodology behind the GFCI can be found at www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/GFCI The full list of the 75 financial centres rated in GFCI 6 is shown on page 21.

Background & Introduction

The Global Financial Centres Index

This latest version of GFCI shows that of the

75 centres rated, 59 centres have

received higher scores and only three have decreased. Thirteen new centres appear in the ratings for the first time. GFCI

5 demonstrated that the financial crisis

had created uncertainty and a significant reduction in confidence, with an unprecedented fall in the ratings for every centre. The current rise in ratings demonstrates a return of confidence to

GFCI 4 levels, with the top scores here

being very similar, and the bottom scores showing a small improvement.

GFCI 5 demonstrated a 'flight to safety'

with the top rated centres being less hardhit by the fall in ratings than the bottom centres. The rise in ratings this time is variable, with the change in ratings varying from minus six points (Gibraltar) to plus 135 (Beijing) with an average movement of plus 43 points. The large rises in ratings were achieved mainly by the

Asian centres with Shanghai, Beijing and

Seoul all seeing rises in excess of 100 points,

as did Sao Paulo, Wellington and

Budapest further down the rankings.

To demonstrate the changing pattern of

perceptions, Chart 1 shows the 3 month moving average assessments given by questionnaire respondents to the top 25 financial centres.

It seems clear that GFCI 5, based on

assessments given during the second half of 2008, showed the low point in GFCI ratings with perceptions being affected by widespread recession and uncertainty about the future of financial services. The failure of Lehman Brothers affected people's confidence in autumn 2008, forexample, and this is reflected in the chart.

The level of assessments has returned to

the scores of last spring and summer reflecting increased optimism and indications that people feel the end of the crisis may be in sight. 2

The Global Financial Centres Index

The Main Themes of GFCI 6

A Return of Confidence

Chart 1

3 Month Moving

Average

Assessments for

the Top 25

Centres

Date >

Average Assessments >

GFCI2GFCI3GFCI4GFCI5

600620640660680700720740760780

Jul 09Jun 09May 09Apr 09Mar 09Feb 09Jan 09Dec 08Nov 08Oct 08Sep 08Aug 08Jul 08Jun 08May 08Apr 08Mar 08Feb 08Jan 08Dec 07Nov 07Oct 07Sep 07Aug 07Jul 07

3

The Global Financial Centres Index

Connectivity and Co-operation

Another noticeable aspect of the GFCI 5

ratings was the large variation in individual centre responses, showing a degree of uncertainty about the global economic situation and what might happen. It is noticeable in GFCI 6 that this degree of variability has been greatly reduced. Of the top 20 financial centres that were in

GFCI 5, 15 have shown a reduction in the

standard deviation of assessments, which indicates a greater degree of consensus and certainty than in 2008.

It is interesting to note that there has been

a distinct shift in the location of respondents to the GFCI survey. Of the 566 new respondents, nearly 50% have come from Asia (previously just under 10%). There is still the highest response rate from

Europe (43%) from the total responses

included in the model. The GFCI model again has an under-representation of respondents from North America. A breakdown of respondents is shown on page 27.

The increased interest from Asian

respondents has resulted in higher numbers of people being familiar with, and rating, Asian centres. The financial centres that have risen most in GFCI 6 are

Asian, with Beijing, Shanghai and Seoul all

rising by over 100 points in the ratings.

Shenzhen is a new entrant into the GFCI

and is currently in 5th place overall.

The GFCI has previously highlighted the

need for competitive financial centres to be connected and co-operative.

Respondents to the GFCI questionnaire

believe that the need for connectivity and co-operation is greater than ever if the industry is to deal with, and recover from, the current crisis. A representative comment: "The only way we are going to rebuild a sustainable and stable finance industry is for policymakers, especially those in New

York and London, to work

together. Going it alone is no longer an option."

London Based Investment

Bank Director

These issues will be covered in more

depth within each separate section, by identifying which centres appear to be the most aware of and the most closely connected with other centres and geographical regions. 4

The Global Financial Centres Index

Hong Kong and Singapore have

demonstrated stable long term competiveness over the last two years and we consider that they have now joined London and New York as genuine global leaders; consequently thesecentres are discussed here. London and

New York still lead the field although the

gap between the second and third placed centre has been cut from 81 points in GFCI 5 to 45 points here. The four global leaders are:

London remains in top place, 16 points

ahead of New York (from 13 points in

GFCI 5). The financial crisis has had a

significant impact on both centres but they remain ahead of Hong Kong and

Singapore. London remains in the top

quartile of nearly all instrumental factors and leads all industry sector sub-indices (page 22) except the Banking sub-index, where it is 2nd to New York. London leads in all areas of competitiveness (page 23).

New York has gained 6 points since GFCI

5 and remains in the top quartile in over

80% of its instrumental factors. New York is

2nd in all sub-indices except the Banking

industry sub-index where it is in 1st position. We have long argued that the relationship between London and New

York is mutually supportive and a gain for

one does not mean a loss for the other.

Before the crisis, a level of competition

between the two centres was very evident. Whilst many industry professionals still see a great deal of competition, policymakers appear to recognise that working together on certain elements of regulatory reform is likely to enhance the competitiveness of both centres. Hong Kong continues to thrive and has risen by 45 points since GFCI 5. It has also regained 3rd place in GFCI from

Singapore (which was ahead in GFCI 4

and 5). It is in 3rd place in all areas of competitiveness and 3rd in the banking, asset management and insurance industry sector sub-indices.

Singapore has been climbing steadily in

the GFCI ratings and has risen by

32 points in GFCI 6. It is 4th place in all

areas of competitiveness and 3rd in the professional services and Government &

Regulatory industry sector sub-indices.

The Global Leaders

Table 1

The Global

Leaders

Centre GFCI 6 Rating GFCI 6 Rank Change in Change in

Rating since Rank since

GFCI 5 GFCI 5

London 790 1 9 0

New York 774 2 6 0

Hong Kong 729 3 45 +1

Singapore 719 4 32 -1

5

The Global Financial Centres Index

Shown in Chart 2 are three month rolling

averages of all assessments given to the top four centres in the GFCI online questionnaire:

It is worth noting the gradual rise of Hong

Kong and Singapore towards London

and New York. In mid 2007, before the crisis began, London and New York formed a pair with very similar average assessments (just above 800) and Hong

Kong and Singapore formed another pair

with similar average assessments (approximately 700). The four centres are now much more closely grouped, with far more similar average assessments. It is evident that all four centres have consistently performed well in all areas of competitiveness with London, New York and Hong Kong being in the top five in most of the sub-indices since GFCI 1 and

Singapore making a gradual rise over the

past two years.quotesdbs_dbs14.pdfusesText_20