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California Auto Outlook

Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market

Volume 16, Number 3

Released August 2020

Covering Second Quarter 2020

Publication Sponsored By:

California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD 2019 & 2020, thru June

TWO YEAR

PERSPECTIVE

Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News.

Sales Low Point Likely Reached in Second Quarter; 11 Percent Increase Predicted for 2021 Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian. California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2021

ANNUAL

TRENDS

New vehicle registrations in Cal-

ifornia are expected to decline to

1.63 million units in 2020, down

22 percent from last year.

Latest projections are for the

market to exceed 1.8 million units in 2021, an increase of more than

10 percent from this year.

Although the trend is positive,

sales will be subject to periods of ups and downs due to possible surges in the virus and any busi- ness shutdowns. *'20 and '21 forecasts by Auto Outlook. 1.45 1.04

1.171.291.621.801.932.162.212.202.152.09

1.63 1.81 0.0

0.51.01.52.02.5

New vehicle regs. (millions)

Years

CaliforniaU.S.

YTD '19YTD '20ChangeYTD '19YTD '20Change

Registrations

Light Truck617,823491,436-20.5%5,947,5834,860,494-18.3%

Market Share

Car42.637.5-5.129.825.0-4.8

Light Truck57.462.55.170.275.04.8

Domestic32.533.40.945.345.50.2

European14.914.6-0.39.39.60.3

Japanese45.944.9-1.037.736.5-1.2

Korean6.77.10.47.78.40.7

California new light vehicle mar-

ket declined 26.9 percent during the ?rst six months of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market fell 23.5 percent.

Light truck registrations in the

state declined 20.5 percent versus the 35.6 percent drop for passenger cars.

Light truck market share in

California was 62.5 percent in

the ?rst half of this year vs. 75.0 percent in the Nation.

QUARTERLY

RESULTS

California Quarterly New Light Vehicle Registrations

Percent Change vs. Year Earlier

The California new vehicle

market felt the full impact of the

COVID-19 pandemic in the Sec-

ond Quarter of this year, as new vehicle registrations declined by nearly 50 percent versus year earlier.

The market showed signs

of stabilizing as the quarter progressed. June registrations fell by less than 20 percent compared to 2019.Data source: AutoCount data from Experian. 3 5 %-3.7%-3.8% 0 3 4 3 48
9 %-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%

1Q '19 vs.

1Q '182Q '19 vs.

2Q '183Q '19 vs.

3Q '184Q '19 vs.

4Q '181Q '20 vs.

1Q '192Q '20 vs.

2Q '19

% chgange vs. year earlier

Page 2 California Auto Outlook

Non Luxury SUVs

30%

Pickups and Vans

16%

Small Cars

19%Luxury SUVs, 11%Non Luxury Mid

Size & Large Cars

13%Luxury & Sports

Cars 11%

Non Luxury SUVs

33%

Pickups and Vans

18%Small Cars, 16%Luxury SUVs, 12%Non Luxury Mid

Size & Large Cars

11%Luxury & Sports

Cars 10%

SEGMENT MARKET SHARE TRENDS

Non Luxury SUV Market Share in California Increases to 33 Percent

HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Electric Vehicle Market Share Moved Higher During First Half of 2020

Segment Market Shares in California

YTD 2019 thru June

Segment Market Shares in California

YTD 2020 thru June

The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the ?rst six months of 2019 and 2029.

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Non Luxury SUV

YTD '19:

30%

Non Luxury SUV

YTD '20:

33%

Hybrid/electric vehicle

market share in 1st half of 2020:

13.4 percent

Estimated Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%

20152016201720182019YTD '20

Market Share

ElectricHybrid (excl. plug ins)Plug In Hybrid

Estimated Hybrid and Electric New Vehicle Registrations and Market Share

2016201720182019YTD

2020

Electric registrations41932593889912110675245601

Electric share1.9%2.7%4.6%5.1%5.8%

Hybrid regs. (excl. plug ins)1059341011809265811721844028

Hybrid share (excl. plug ins)4.8%4.6%4.3%5.6%5.6%

Plug in hybrid regs.3751848391646445232915724

Plug in hybrid share1.7%2.2%3.0%2.5%2.0%

The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle market share in the state. Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped with multiple

engine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The estimates are based on model registrations compiled by Experian, and engine installation rates collected from other

sources.

Covering Second Quarter 2020 Page 3

The table below shows the top

?ve selling models during the ?rst six months of 2020 in 20 segments. In addition to unit registrations, it also shows each model"s market share in its re- spective segment.

MODEL RANKINGS

Honda Civic Regains Top Spot in California New Vehicle Market; RAV4 is Second

BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS

Compact Car: Honda CivicFull Size Pickup: Ford F-Series Mid Size Car: Toyota CamryCompact SUV: Toyota RAV4 Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander Luxury Car: Mercedes E-ClassLuxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX Chevrolet Bolt357520.8Honda Civic2997431.0Ford Mustang476437.6Toyota Camry2595032.6 Nissan Versa286516.7Toyota Corolla2177122.5Dodge Challenger420833.2Honda Accord1996225.0 Kia Soul285416.6Toyota Prius75117.8Chevrolet Camaro201515.9Nissan Altima845210.6 Honda Fit261515.2Nissan Sentra66946.9Mazda MX55994.7Ford Fusion66078.3 Chevrolet Spark12497.3Kia Forte54075.6Hyundai Veloster5214.1Kia Optima54006.8 Dodge Charger565865.9Mercedes CLA-Class144724.0Tesla Model 32485048.5Mercedes E-Class291313.3 Nissan Maxima8499.9Mercedes A-Class138923.0BMW 3-Series48939.6BMW 5-Series276712.7 Toyota Avalon8309.7Audi A3104317.3Lexus ES40507.9Tesla Model S239811.0 Chrysler 3006747.9BMW 2-Series98616.3Mercedes C-Class34106.7Audi A612375.7 Chevrolet Impala4935.7Acura ILX91115.1Audi A416933.3Porsche 91112255.6 Toyota Tacoma1816552.8Ford F-Series2420431.0Honda Odyssey421130.6Ford Transit Connect813649.2 Ford Ranger555616.2Chevrolet Silverado2113227.1Chrysler Pacifica391328.4Mercedes Sprinter235414.2 Chevrolet Colorado405511.8Ram Pickup1930624.7Toyota Sienna271219.7Ram Promaster192511.6 Jeep Gladiator26777.8GMC Sierra819210.5Chrysler Voyager173712.6Nissan NV180810.9 Nissan Frontier19805.8Toyota Tundra47666.1Dodge Caravan6064.4Chevrolet Express12267.4 Honda HR-V567415.3Toyota RAV42707622.9Toyota Highlander900910.4Chevrolet Tahoe302325.1 Toyota C-HR454812.3Honda CR-V1534613.0Ford Explorer896010.4Ford Expedition231719.3 Hyundai Kona388710.5Mazda CX592237.8Subaru Outback77749.0Chevrolet Suburban171814.3 Nissan Kicks30588.2Jeep Wrangler91847.8Jeep Grand Cherokee60797.0GMC Yukon149812.5 Kia Niro30588.2Subaru Forester85497.2Toyota 4Runner54776.3Nissan Armada136411.3 Lexus UX231719.1Lexus NX527216.8Lexus RX761018.9Mercedes GLS-Class205921.4 Audi Q3212917.6BMW X3423013.4Mercedes GLE-Class443311.0Land Rover Range Rover162816.9 BMW X1197216.3Mercedes GLC-Class375711.9BMW X539679.9BMW X7160016.6 Mercedes GLA-Class176414.5Audi Q5338710.8Tesla Model X39339.8Cadillac Escalade120312.5

Mercedes GLB-Class150712.4Acura RDX29349.3Acura MDX23205.8Infiniti QX80/QX5696410.0Subcompact SUVCompact SUVMid Size SUVLarge SUV

Luxury Subcompact SUVLuxury Compact SUVLuxury Mid Size SUVLuxury Large SUV

Compact/Mid Size PickupFull Size PickupMini VanLarge VanTop Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (Y

TD 2020, thru June)

Cars

SubcompactCompactSports/Pony CarsMid Size

LargeEntry LuxuryNear LuxuryLuxury and High End Sports Cars

Light Trucks

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Figures for Prius include Prius Prime.

Page 4 California Auto Outlook

BRAND SUMMARY

Toyota, Honda, and Ford Are Top Three Selling Brands in California

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Percent Change in Brand Registrations - YTD '20 thru June vs. YTD '19 (Top 30 selling brands in state)

Registrations declined by less than

20 percent for Chrysler, GMC, Lin-

coln, Ram, Kia, Porsche, Volvo, Tesla, and Subaru California and U.S. Market Share - YTD '20 thru June (Top 15 selling brands in state)

Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet,

and Nissan were market share leaders in California 47
6

100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%NissanDodgeInfinitiVolkswagenMINIMitsubishiCadillacAcuraBuickFordMercedesHyundaiBMWHondaJeepLexusLand RoverChevroletToyotaAudiMazdaSubaruTeslaVolvoPorscheKiaRamLincolnGMCChrysler

Percent change in registrations

2 0 2 4 2 7

Market Share

State U.S.

Covering Second Quarter 2020 Page 5

BRAND REGISTRATIONS

Detailed Results for All Brands in California Market

The table above shows new light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in California. Figures are shown for the Second Quarters of 2019 and 2020,

and year to date totals. Vehicle registrations are recorded based on when the vehicle title information is processed by the state, which typically occurs

after the vehicle is sold. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow

California Auto Outlook

Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc., PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone 610-640-1233 Email: jfoltz@autooutlook.com

Any material quoted must be attributed to California Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the California New Car Dealers Association. Data source must also be

shown as “Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian" Please contact CNCDA with any questions or comments regarding the publication. Copyright: Auto Outlook, Inc. Aug., 2020.

At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and

contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make

no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook

expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to

update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.

California New Car and Light Truck Registrations

Second QuarterYear to date thru June

RegistrationsMarket Share (%)RegistrationsMarket Share (%)

2Q '192Q '20% change2Q '192Q '20ChangeYTD '19YTD '20% changeYTD '19YTD '20Change

Alfa Romeo887691-22.10.20.20.01,9251,783-7.40.20.20.0 Land Rover4,4302,274-48.70.80.80.09,6117,251-24.60.90.90.0

Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Page 6 California Auto Outlook

Retail Light TrucksRetail Passenger CarsFleet Light TrucksFleet Passenger Cars

Registrations

YTD '18YTD '19YTD '20

BREAKDOWN OF RETAIL AND FLEET MARKETS

State Retail Registrations Declined 22.3 Percent in First Half of '20 vs. 41.1 Percent Drop for Fleets

California New Car and Light Truck Retail and Fleet Registrations - YTD '18, '19, & '20 thru June

REGIONAL MARKETS IN CALIFORNIA

Northern and Southern California Markets Posts Similar Results

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

PERCENT CHANGE:

YTD '20 vs. YTD '19

Retail cars: DOWN 30.4%

Retail light trucks: DOWN 16.0%

Fleet cars: DOWN 54.2%

Fleet light trucks: DOWN 33.1%

New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (excluding fleets) YTD '20, Jun e

North and South CaliforniaYTD '19YTD '20% chg.

Statewide Total813,207631,806-22.3%

Cars357,564248,879-30.4%

Light Trucks455,643382,927-16.0%

Northern California275,549212,433-22.9%

Cars116,63279,777-31.6%

Light Trucks158,917132,656-16.5%

Southern California537,658419,373-22.0%

Cars240,932169,102-29.8%

Light Trucks296,726250,271-15.7%

Selected Regional Markets

San Francisco Bay157,517113,782-27.8%

Cars72,48246,563-35.8%

Light Trucks85,03567,219-21.0%

LA and Orange Counties323,860242,806-25.0%

Cars150,400102,747-31.7%

Light Trucks173,460140,059-19.3%

San Diego County69,04855,677-19.4%

Cars28,30719,820-30.0%

Light Trucks40,74135,857-12.0%

Percent Change in New Retail Registrations - YTD '20 vs. YTD '19

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

Cars DOWN 31.6%

Light trucks DOWN 16.5%

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Cars DOWN 29.8%

Light trucks DOWN 15.7%

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Covering Second Quarter 2020 Page 7

Toyota

Honda

Subaru

Ford Jeep

Chevrolet

Nissan

Hyundai

Mazda Kia

Volkswagen

GMC

Mitsubishi

Dodge Buick MINI FIAT Other

0K5K10K15K20K25K30K

YTD 2020 Registrations

Mid Size and Large SUV

Small SUV

Lexus BMW

Mercedes

Audi

Land Rover

Tesla Acura Volvo

Inniti

Cadillac

Porsche

Lincoln

Jaguar

Alfa Romeo

Other

Maserati

0K2K4K6K8K

YTD 2020 Registrations

Luxury Mid Size and Large SUV

Luxury Small SUV

Toyota is Top Selling Non-Luxury SUV Brand

New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations in Non Luxury SUV Segments - YTD 2020 thru June

The two graphs below show new retail light vehicle registrations for Non Luxury and Luxury SUV brands. Each graph shows Small SUV registrations and

Mid Size and Large registrations. Brands are positioned from left to right based on total registrations. Each circle corresponds to brand registrations

for Small SUVs (orange circle) and Mid Size and Large SUVs (blue circle). Note: Small SUVs consist of subcompact and compact models.

Toyota was the best-selling non-luxury SUV brand

Small SUVs were higher for

Toyota and Honda.

Ford was the best-selling Mid Size and

Large SUV brand.

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations in Luxury SUV Segments - YTD 2020 thru June Note: Small SUVs consist of subcompact and compact models.

Lexus was the best-

selling luxury SUV brand

Small SUVs were higher for

BMW

SUV CLOSE UP

Page 8 California Auto Outlook

Toyota Is Best-Selling Brand in Six Year Old Or Newer Used Vehicle Market

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

Used Vehicle Market Holds Up Relatively Well in First Half of '20 Percent Change in New and Used Vehicle Registrations - YTD '20 thru June vs. YTD '19

Used vehicle registrations

in California declined 14.4 percent in the ?rst half of '20, better than the 26.9 percent drop for new vehicles.

The nearly new used vehicle

market (3 years old or newer) declined at a faster pace than older vehicles.

Used vehicle market has been

given a boost by sparse new vehicle inventories and cost conscious consumers. Used vehicle market should remain relatively strong for the remain- der of 2020.

3 KEY TRENDS IN

USED VEHICLE

MARKET

01. 02. 03.

Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.

CALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKET

CALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKET

Top 15 Selling Brands in California Used Vehicle Market (vehicles 6 years old or newer)

YTD 2020 thru June

13 0 9 5 9 3 %9.1% 8 4 5 6 4 7 %4.3%3.6%3.3%3.1%3.1%2.8%2.4%2.2%15.5% 0.0%

6.0%12.0%18.0%

26
9 %-14.4% 17 6 %-12.4%-3.1% 50.0%

25.0%0.0%25.0%

New vehiclesAll used vehicles3 year old or newer

used vehicles4 to 6 year old used vehicles7 to 10 year old used vehiclesquotesdbs_dbs19.pdfusesText_25