[PDF] The Future Is Not What It Used to Be

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The Future Is Not What It Used to Be

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Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions

TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v2.0

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be

Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions January 2016

Carl Benedikt Frey

Co-Director for the Oxford Martin

Programme on Technology and

Employment and Oxford Martin Citi

Fellow

Michael A Osborne

Co-Director for the Oxford Martin

Programme on Technology and

Employment and Associate

Professor in Machine Learning at

the University of Oxford

Craig Holmes

Senior Research Fellow at the

Institute for New Economic

Thinking at the Oxford Martin

School and Teaching Fellow in

Economics, Pembroke College,

University of Oxford

Ebrahim Rahbari

Global Economics Team

+1-212-816-5081 | ebrahim.rahbari@citi.com

Elizabeth Curmi

Thematic Analyst

+44-20-7986-6818 |
elizabeth.curmi@citi.com

Robert Garlick

Global Equity Product Head

+44-20-7986-3547 |
robert.j.garlick@citi.com

Johanna Chua

Head of Asia Pacific Economics

and Market Analysis +852-2501-2357 |
johanna.chua@citi.com

George Friedlander

Municipal Strategy & Policy

+1-212-723-4451 | george.friedlander@citi.com

Peter Chalif

Head of Structured Trading,

Municipal Securities

+1-212-723-3518 | peter.chalif@citi.com

Graeme McDonald

Japan Machinery & Shipbuilding

Analyst

+81-3-6270-4732 |
graeme.mcdonald@citi.com

Martin Wilkie

Head of European Capital Goods

Research

+44-207-986-4077 |
martin.wilkie@citi.com Contributors Greg R Badishkanian Jason B Bazinet Alex Chang Tina M Fordham Arthur Lai Tiia Lehto Kate McShane, CFA Walter H Pritchard, CFA Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA Fred Wightman Ken Wong, CFA Steven Rogers January 2016 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions

© 2016 Citigroup

3

TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v2.0

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be

It is a pleasure to introduce Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It

Used To Be. This report is the third in a long

term series of Citi GPS reports co- produced by Citi and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford in order to explore some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century. The report further explores the concepts introduced in our February 201

5 report, Technology at

Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment, which marked the introduction of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a long-term programme of research at the University of Oxford supported by Citi that will focus on the implications of a rapidly changing technological landscape for economies and societies.

In this new report, Oxford

Martin School academics; Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey,

Associate Professor Michael Osborne and Dr. Craig Holmes expand their theories on the changing nature of innovation and work and the associated implications for the future of employment and society more wid ely. Based on their methodology that predicted 47 percent of US jobs were at risk from automation, the authors now look at the probabilities of jobs at risk across the world as well as the disparities of job risk between cities. To protect against jobs being eliminated due to automation, it is important to recognize which characteristics are most likely to be associated with a given job being automated - perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, and social intelligence are the three bottlenecks to automation. Cities and regions that have invested in skilled industries remain relatively safe from automation and technological dynamism will remain the best way to maximize employment and to benefit positively from new technologies. Education is also a very important tool that policymakers will need to leverage in preparation for the effects of accelerated technological change. Throughout this report, Citi Research analysts drill deeper into specific industries to highlight a number of sectors already fe eling the effects of automation as well as areas where technology is helping to create new jobs. The Citi Research Economics team investigates whether traditional measurement tools are failing to capture the productivity and GDP improvements as well as the subsequent inflation effects that come from accelerated technological change. Finally, we look to identify adequate policy responses for the issues highlighted in this report. We hope that you enjoy this Citi GPS report. We look forward to sharing the results of the exciting collaboration between Citi and the Oxford Martin School in future reports.

Andrew Pitt Ian Goldin

Global Head of Research Director of the Oxford Martin School

Citi Professor of Globalisation & Development

University of Oxford

Accelerating technological change

Do you believe that automation will lead to major challenges (e.g. on labour or wealth distribution)?

The risk of jobs being replaced by automation varies by country

47% of US jobs are at risk from automation, but not all cities have the same job risk

47%

The payback period for robot systems are falling

Boom or doom - techno-optimists vs techno-pessimists

Which policies are likely to be most effective to offset the risks of automation impacting labour and wealth distribution?

Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions January 2016

© 2016 Citigroup

6

Contents

Executive Summary

7

Macro Implications

How Susceptible are Countries Worldwide? Jobs at Risk of

Automation

11

Does Au

tomation Change the Trend of Offshoring to Low Cost

Regions?

20 How Does Susceptibility Vary Within Countries? Cities at Risk 30

What New Jobs do We See Ahead? New Jobs in a New

Economy 37

Demography vs Automation: Will We Run Out of Workers or

Out of Jobs?

53

Impact of Automation on

Productivity: Are Traditional

Measurement Tools Failing to Capture Productivity and GDP

Improvements?

61
Impact of Automation on Inflation: What Does this Point I mply for Economic and Interest Rate Cycles? 68

Industry Implications

Sector Analysis: How is Automation Impacting Jobs in the

Near Term?

74

What are the Barriers to Automation?

89

Policy Implications

Response: Policy and Job Risk f

rom Automation 96
What Are the Challenges for State and Local Governments from Technological Change? 104

Policies for New Job Creation in Cities 113

How Should Education Adapt In the Race Between Education and Technology? 115

Will Robot Laws Slow

the Pace of Change? Privacy, Ethics and Liability Issues 125 Will Keynes Prediction of a World of Leisure Prove Correct? 136

Conclusion

145

About the Oxford Martin School 148

The Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment is a new research programme established in January 2015 with support from Citi. It has been created to investigate the implications of a rapidly changing technological landscape for economies and societies. The programme will provide an in-depth understanding of how technology is transforming the economy, to help leaders create a successful transition into new ways of working in the 21st century. The programme is part of a wider research partnership between the Oxford Martin School and Citi, analysing some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st Century. January 2016 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions

© 2016

Citigroup

7

Executive Summary

1 The debate over the impact of automation has been going on for several centuries, from the Luddites in 1811 to John Maynard

Keynes' prediction of technological

unemployment in the 1930's, to Stephen Hawking's recent warnings over Artificial Intelligence. Most recently, the topic has been chosen as the primary theme for the

2016 World

Economic Forum meeting in Davos and the Financial Times awarded their 2015 Business Book of the Year to Martin Ford's 'The Rise of the Robots'.

In our February 2015 Citi GPS report

Technology At Work we cited three primary

reasons why we believed the impact of technology change on the economy was different this time: (1) the pace of change has accelerated; (2) the scope of technological change is increasing ; and (3) unlike innovation in the past, the benefits of technological change are not being widely shared - real median wages have fallen behind growth in productivity and inequality has increased. In the report that follows, Citi again teams up with Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne from the Oxford Martin School to answer a number of the questions that were generated post the original report - on a range of topics from susceptibility to solutions. There seems little doubt that the pace of technology change has accelerated. Whereas it took on average 119 years for the spindle to diffuse outside of Europe, the Internet spread across the globe in only 7 years. Going forward, as argued in the Citi GPS Disruptive Innovations III report, the cost of innovation continues to fall as cheaper smartphones will help bring 4 billion more people online. The next stage of connectivity will move from people to 'things' with Cisco estimating 500 billion devices will be connected by 2030, up from 13 billion in 2013. Increasing digital connectivity is fuelling a data boom, with data volume estimated to be doubling every 18 months, and computers are likely far better able to handle this volume than people. In 2015, the Edelman Trust Barometer found that more than half of the global "informed public" believe that the pace of development and change in business today is "too fast" with 70% citing technology as the driver of change. Over

96% of institutional clients who participated in Citi's survey on technology and work

believe that automation will accelerate over the next five years vs. the previous five years. Our work also suggests the scope of technology change is increasing. The big data revolution and improvements in machine learning algorithms means that more occupations can be replaced by technology, including tasks once thought quintessentially human such as navigating a car or deciphering handwriting. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne's original study on employment 2 suggested

47% of US jobs were at risk of computerisation. In the chapter 'How Susceptible are

Countries Worldwide?', we use data from the World Bank to show that the risks of automation are actually higher in many other countries - - for example in the OECD the data shows on average 57% of jobs are susceptible to automation, this number rises to 69% in India and 77% in China. 1 The authors are very grateful to Andrew Pitt and Professor Ian Goldin for guidance in framing this report, as well as to Anushya Devendra at the Oxford Martin School for advice and editorial support 2 Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?

Oxford Martin School

Working Paper No. 7.

Robert Garlick

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