The VSREF system consists of three procedures, the ensemble

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1

J12.3 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology,

90th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, 17-21 Jan, 2010

Introduction to the NCEP Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (VSREF)

Binbin Zhou*, Jun Du and Geoff DiMego

Environmental Model Center/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD

Abstract The NCEP Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast (VSREF) System is specially developed for aviation

weather and potential NextGen applications. Its development was initiated in 2009. The VSREF system is

based on NCEP's operational Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model

runs using a time-lag ensembling technique. The current domain is over the contiguous US (CONUS). The

VSREF is routinely updated every hour with hourly output through 6 hr forecast length. In the current

developing stage, there are 11 aviation-weather related probabilistic products in the VSREF system,

including icing, clear air turbulence (CAT), visibility, fog, ceiling, low level wind shear, jet stream, surface

wind gust, simulated reflectivity, convection, and freezing height. There is an experimental web page to

display these products for demonstration. In this paper, more detailed information about the NCEP VSREF

including its system configuration, product generation, verification and future plan will be described.

1. Introduction

Ensemble forecasting is a new modeling

technique to deal with forecast uncertainties, steming from either initial conditions or models.

The National Centers for Environmental

Prediction (NCEP) of NOAA has developed

ensemble forecast systems at both global scale (Toth and Kalnay 1993) and regional range scale (Du and Tracton 2001, Du et al. 2006) over

Contiguous US (CONUS), Alaska and Hawaii. In

recent years, NCEP has been making efforts to apply its Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)

System to aviation weather forecast (Zhou et al,

2004), including system configuration, post-

processing, preliminary aviation-related ensemble products. However, the current system configuration for the NCEP SREF still dose not

NextGen,

Traffic Management System

(ATM). Currently, NCEP has a Rapid Update Cycle model (RUC: http://ruc.noaa.gov) that is hourly run and specially serves deterministic aviation weather prediction. However, due to

Corresponding author address: Binbin Zhou,

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Rd. Camp

Springs, MD 20746. Binbin.Zhou@noaa.gov

uncertainties of model prediction and its critic impacts on aviation traffic decision making procedure, NextGen will heavily rely on ensemble-based probabilistic forecast data as input (Benjamin and DiMego 2010; Souders et al.

2010). As a promise to support and comply with

the NextGen requirements, NCEP and Global

Systems Division (GSD) of Earth System

Research Laboratory (ESRL) of NOAA will

cooperate to develop NCAR ARW-WRF based

Rapid Refresh (RR) and High-Resolution RR

(HRRR) systems. The RR or HRRR based ensemble forecast system (NARRE North

American Rapid Refresh Ensemble and HRRRE

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble) will be

established in 2014 as planed. As a prelude of the

RR/HRRR ensemble development stages, a RUC-

NAM based Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast

System (VSREF) has been first suggested and

developed at NCEP recently. The basic idea of the

VSREF is time-lagging the forecasts from existing

RUC and NAM cycles. An obvious advantage of

the time-lagged technique is its low computational cost since it uses existing model output data without large amount of computational resources including CPU and memory space as requested mainly by, for instance, integrating a model and 2 generating initial condition perturbations such as

Ensemble Transform used by GEFS and breeding

technique used by the SREF ( Du et al. 2006 ).

The only cost for the time-lagged ensemble

forecast system is on the procedures to collect the existing model data and then apply a post processor to generate required ensemble products.

For the VSREF, a rapid refreshed ensemble

forecast system, employing the time-lagged ensembling technique is an appropriate choice for current computational condition at NCEP. The current VSREF system consists of three procedures, including the ensemble member creation, the aviation ensemble product generation and the ensemble product visualization. This paper will give a brief description of each of these procedures.

2. System configuration

There are two types of approaches for the time

lagged technique: - quotesdbs_dbs15.pdfusesText_21

[PDF] The VSREF system consists of three procedures, the ensemble