Are business decision-making processes too slow?
Business decision-making processes are too slow to react and too poorly tracked to adapt, and the pandemic era has laid those shortcomings bare.
The problem is that as VUCA increases, existing decision-making problems get worse.
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Cognitive Control
As we have outlined, an emerging body of literature is beginning to demonstrate how different forms of uncertainty are processed.
One aspect that has yet to be adequately addressed is the potential involvement of cognitive control processes in the resolution of uncertainty (Mushtaq et al., 2011).
Indeed, the ability to rapidly and flexibly adjust b.
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Computational Modeling of Unexpected Uncertainty and Volatility
Modeling human behavior using computational approaches has provided some important insights into the potential mechanisms involved in decision-making under uncertainty.
Such behavior can be modeled by Bayesian algorithms (Behrens et al., 2007; Nassar et al., 2010; Mathys et al., 2011).
Indeed, Bayesian statistical theory formalizes the notion that .
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Distinct Varieties of Uncertainty
Successful decision-making relies on one’s ability to form a stable representation of the underlying S-R-O rules learned from previous experience of gains and losses (e.g., Sutton and Barto, 1998; Ridderinkhof et al., 2004; Seymour et al., 2007).
As such, agents can learn that a specific association between a stimulus (S) and a response (R) is link.
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Exploitation Versus Exploration Dilemma
Some authors suggest that the distinction between expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty may be an important element in behavioral adaptation i.e., in choosing whether to explore or exploit the decision-making environment (Cohen et al., 2007a).
The exploitation versus exploration dilemma suggests a trade-off between persisting in our current .
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Introduction
Uncertainty is a common feature of many every day decisions.
Uncertainty typically arises in a situation that has limited or incalculable information about the predicted outcomes of behavior (Huettel et al., 2005).
Successfully detecting, processing and resolving uncertainty is important to successful adaptive behavior.
Recent years have seen a gro.
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Neuromodulators Associated with Uncertainty
Acetylcholine (ACh) and Noradrenaline (NA) may be critical neurotransmitters involved in signaling expected and unexpected sources of uncertainty (Phillips et al., 2000; Bouret and Sara, 2005; Yu and Dayan, 2005; Preuschoff et al., 2011; Avery et al., 2012).
Particularly, ACh is said to signal expected uncertainty due to known unreliability in the .
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Synthesis and Conclusions
We have reviewed existing empirical evidence and theoretical evidence in order to form a case for considering three distinct forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty, and volatility.
Whilst expected uncertainty has received much attention in the literature, the latter two forms of uncertainty are relatively less well explo.
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What is an example of a volatile market?
In a volatile market, for example, the prices of commodities can rise or fall considerably in a short period of time, and the direction of a trend may reverse suddenly.
Uncertainty occurs when events and outcomes are unpredictable.
The cause and effect are not well understood, and previous experience may not apply to the situation.
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What is the decision intelligence revolution?
I write about the decision intelligence revolution.
Coined by military strategists to describe the post-Cold War world, VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity.
I first learned of the concept as an Air Force captain in the early ‘90s, and it captured the massive visceral change when the Soviet Union collapsed.
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What is VUCA (volatility uncertainty complexity and ambiguity)?
What is VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity).
VUCA is an acronym that stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity -- qualities that make a situation or condition difficult to analyze, respond to or plan for.
Financial mathematical measure
In financial mathematics, the implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model, will return a theoretical value equal to the price of said option.
A non-option financial instrument that has embedded optionality, such as an interest rate cap, can also have an implied volatility.
Implied volatility, a forward-looking and subjective measure, differs from historical volatility because the latter is calculated from known past returns of a security.
To understand where implied volatility stands in terms of the underlying, implied volatility rank is used to understand its implied volatility from a one-year high and low IV.
