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Costs of

Generating

Electricity

2020 Edition

Generating Electricity

2020 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The IEA is at the heart of global dialogue on energy, providing authoritative analysis, data, policy recommendations, and real-world solutions to help countries provide secure and sustainable energy for?all. The IEA was created in 1974 to help co-ordinate a collective response to major disruptions in the supply of oil. While oil security this remains a key aspect of our work, the IEA has evolved and expanded signi?cantly since its foundation. Taking an all-fuels, all-technology approach, the IEA advocates policies that enhance the

reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy. It examines the full spectrum issues including

renewables, oil, gas and coal supply and demand, energy ef?ciency, clean energy technologies, electricity systems and markets, access to energy, demand-side management, and much more. Since 2015, the IEA has opened its doors to major emerging countries to expand its global impact, and deepen cooperation in energy security, data and statistics, energy policy analysis, energy ef?ciency, and the growing use of clean energy technologies. IEA member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, New?Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The?Netherlands, Turkey, United Kingdom and the United States. IEA association countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore, South Africa and?Thailand. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEAmember- ship consists of 33 countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Korea, Romania, Russia, the Slovak? Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency also take part in the work of the Agency.

The mission of the NEA is:

-? to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co-operation, the scienti?c, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally sound and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes; to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD analyses in areas such as energy and the sustainable development of low-carbon economies. Speci?c areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management and decommissioning, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries.

This document, as well as any statistical data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of

or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name

of any territory, city or area. The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 37 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international?policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the?Czech?Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the?United?Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation"s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily re?ect the of?cial views of the member countries of the OECD or its Nuclear Energy Agency or the International Energy Agency.

Copyright © 2020

International Energy Agency

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and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency

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No reproduction, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without prior written permission.

Requests should be sent to: rights@iea.org

Foreword

At a moment when the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet subsided, creating the appropriate frameworks for ensuring adequate investment in the power sectors of OECD and non-OECD countries alike is of paramount importance. This is especially relevant at a moment where many governments are initiating targeted stimulus packages to support the economy. Many of these packages include measures to accelerate the countries" clean energy transitions - a shift from carbon-intensive electricity generation to low-carbon technologies, setting all areas of the economy and society on a more sustainable path. Affordability will be a key consideration in designing those transitions. Decision makers in policy and industry, assisted by modellers and energy experts, will have to chart a way forward in increasingly complex contexts. Doing so will require reliable and relevant information. This is where this joint publication by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the OECD Nuclear Energy

Agency (NEA) comes in. Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - 2020 Edition is the ninth edition of

their joint report on electricity generating costs by the major power generation technologies in

24?different countries.

Any comparison of generation costs today must also consider our rapidly changing power

systems. As in previous editions, this edition uses the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) as a well-

established, uniquely transparent and intuitive metric, widely used in policy making, modelling and public discussion. As the shares of wind and solar PV in our power systems grow, the value of the electricity generated by a particular technology in a particular power system also changes. Thus, this report also presents a new complementary metric, the “value-adjusted" LCOE to account

for these impacts. In addition, ?ve “boundary chapters" take a step back to discuss different aspects

of the evolving electricity systems of today and tomorrow in a broad and dynamic long-term perspective. Altogether, the different elements of Projected Costs of Generating Electricity - 2020 Edition aim at contributing to a sound informational infrastructure for forward-looking decision making in decarbonising energy sectors. In this context, knowing the costs and system value of different electricity generation options and, in particular, of low-carbon generation, is indispensable.

Acknowledgements

The lead authors and co-ordinators of this report were Dr Stefan Lorenczik, Electricity Markets Analyst, IEA, and Professor Jan Horst Keppler, Senior Economic Advisor, NEA. Effective managerial oversight was provided by Mr Peter Fraser, Head of the IEA Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division and Dr Sama Bilbao y León, Head of the NEA Division on Nuclear Technology Development and Economics (NTE). Mr Lucas Mir and Mr Gabriel Sousa, both of the NEA, and Ms Sunah Kim, IEA, provided valuable help with the analysis and preparation of the LCOE country data. Mr Brent Wanner, Lead of Power Generation Modelling and Analysis for the IEA World Energy Outlook,

wrote Chapter 4 on “The value-adjusted levelised costs of electricity (VALCOE)", with support from

Mr?Connor Donovan. Dr Lorenczik prepared the “Sensitivity analysis" in Chapter 5. The IEA and NEA Secretariats would like to acknowledge the essential contribution of the Expert Group on Projected Costs of Generating Electricity (EGC Expert Group), which assisted in the sourcing of data, provided advice on methodological issues and reviewed successive drafts of the report. The EGC Expert Group was effectively chaired by Professor William D"haeseleer from Belgium and co-chaired by Dr Yuhji?Matsuo (Japan) and Mr Thomas J. Tarka (United States). The full list of the members of the EGC Expert Group can be found at the end of this publication. Five “boundary chapters" in Part II of this publication provide context and perspective for the LCOE data presented in Chapter 3. Professor D"haeseleer, Professor Erik Delarue and Mr?Tim?Mertens (KU?Leuven) wrote Chapter 6 on “The levelised cost of storage (LCOS)". Professor?Keppler and Dr?Klaus Hammes (Swedish Environment Agency) authored Chapter?7 on “Carbon pricing". Dr?M ichel?Berthéle my and Mr Antonio Vaya Soler (NEA) are responsible for Chapter?8, “A?Perspective on the costs of existing and new nuclear power plants". Mr Olivier Houvenagel,

Dr?Cédric?Léonard and Dr?Thomas?Veyrenc (all three of Réseau de Transport d"Electricité [RTE],

France) contributed Chapter?9 on “Sector coupling: Understanding how the electricity sector can drive the decarbonisation of the overall economy". Finally, Dr Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez, Dr?Uwe?Remme and Mr?Taku?Hasegawa (IEA) contributed Chapter?10 on “Hydrogen: An opportunity for the power sector." Mr Christopher Gully, Ms Astrid Dumond and Mr Jon Custer of the IEA Digital News and Information Unit contributed to the preparation of the website for this report. Mr Andrew Macintyre and Ms Elisabeth Villoutreix (NEA) edited the report. Ms Fabienne Vuillaume (NEA) provided assistance with the ?nal preparation of the report layout.

Table of contents

Foreword ..........................................................................................................................................

.................................................. 5 Acknowledgements ........................................................................ ............................................................................................. 6

List of tables .........................................................................................................

............................................................................ 9 List of gures ........................................................................

........................................................................................................... 10

Executive summary ........................................................................ ............................................................................................ 13 METHODOLOGY AND DATA ON LEVELISED COSTS FOR GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES

Chapter 1

Introduction and context ........................................................................ .................................................... 25

Chapter 2

Methodology, conventions and key assumptions ...................................................................... 33

2.1 The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ........................................................................

.............. 33

2.2 Methodological conventions and key assumptions .......................................................... 36

2.3 Conclusions ........................................................................

........................................................................ 41

Chapter 3

LCOE Values by technology and country ........................................................................

................... 43

3.1 Overview and summary statistics ........................................................................

................................... 43

3.2 Technology-by-technology data on overnight and investment costs .................... 48

3.3 Technology-by-technology LCOE data at standard capacity factors ....................... 55

3.4 Technology-by-technology LCOE data for exible technologies

at lower capacity factors ........................................................................ ............................................ 68

Chapter 4

The value-adjusted levelised cost of electricity (VALCOE) ..................................................... 75

4.1 Motivations for looking beyond the LCOE ........................................................................

....... 75

4.2 Key elements of VALCOE ........................................................................

............................................ 77

4.3 Sample results ........................................................................

.................................................................. 80

Chapter 5

Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................ .................................................................. 83

5.1 Discount rate sensitivity ........................................................................

............................................ 84

5.2 Load factor sensitivity ........................................................................

................................................. 85

5.3 Lifetime sensitivity ........................................................................

........................................................ 86

5.4 Fuel cost sensitivity ........................................................................

...................................................... 88

5.5 Carbon price sensitivity ........................................................................

.............................................. 89

BOUNDARY CHAPTERS

Chapter 6

The levelised cost of storage (LCOS) ........................................................................

............................. 93

6.1 Introduction ........................................................................

....................................................................... 93

6.2 A primer on electricity storage: applications, available technologies,

current and estimated future costs ........................................................................

..................... 93

6.3 The levelised cost of storage (LCOS) ........................................................................

.................... 99

6.4 Arbitrage cost metrics for storage technologies: The normative approach ........ 100

6.5 Arbitrage price-based metrics for storage technologies:

The empirical approach........................................................................ .............................................. 105

6.6 Combining all normative and empirical metrics:

Storage costs and price arbitrage in practice ........................................................................

110

6.7 Beyond arbitrage storage services or applications ........................................................... 112

6.8 Concluding remarks ........................................................................

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