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KINGDOM OF MOROCCO

GOVERNING TOWARDS EFFICIENCY, EQUITY,

EDUCATION AND ENDURANCE

A Systematic Country Diagnostic

Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized

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Contents

Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... vi

Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ vii

Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. ix

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... x

1.1. Successes in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity ............................................................. 1

1.1.1 Elimination of extreme poverty and poverty reduction ................................................................... 1

1.1.2 Increased shared prosperity ............................................................................................................. 4

1.1.3 Other improvements in social and human development indicators ................................................ 7

1.2. Factors behind poverty reduction and improvements in social indicators ............................................... 8

1.2.2. Investment in education, health and other social services ............................................................. 10

1.3. Challenges to further reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity ....................................................... 16

1.3.1. Reducing inequalities ...................................................................................................................... 16

1.3.2. Attenuating the sentiment of poverty ............................................................................................ 22

1.3.3. Meeting the aspirational gap .......................................................................................................... 24

1.3.4. Growing the middle class ................................................................................................................ 26

2.1. Economic Sustainability ........................................................................................................................... 28

2.2. Financial sustainability ............................................................................................................................. 33

2.3. Infrastructure service delivery sustainability........................................................................................... 35

2.4. Territorial sustainability ........................................................................................................................... 39

2.5. Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability .................................................................................. 45

2.6. Social sustainability ................................................................................................................................. 49

3.1. More inclusive market institutions .......................................................................................................... 54

3.1.1. For the business environment ........................................................................................................ 54

3.1.2. For SMEs and entrepreneurship ..................................................................................................... 63

3.1.3. For labor market inclusion .............................................................................................................. 64

3.1.4. For competitiveness and diversification ......................................................................................... 70

3.2. More inclusive public governance ........................................................................................................... 77

3.2.1. In elaborating and implementing the rule of law ........................................................................... 77

3.2.2. In administrating the state .............................................................................................................. 80

3.2.3. In delivering public services ............................................................................................................ 82

3.3. More inclusive human capital formation ................................................................................................ 85

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3.3.1. Via education .................................................................................................................................. 85

3.3.2. Via healthcare ................................................................................................................................. 88

3.3.3. Via early childhood development ................................................................................................... 91

3.4. More inclusive social capital .................................................................................................................... 92

3.4.1. For women: the agency factor ........................................................................................................ 93

3.4.2. For all citizens: the trust factor ....................................................................................................... 94

Priority pathways to sustained inclusive development .................................................................... 98

4.1. Pathway 1: Getting closer to the efficiency frontier ............................................................................. 103

4.1.1. Through competition and innovation ........................................................................................... 103

4.1.2. Through favorable business conditions and improved access to finance ..................................... 104

4.1.3. Through improved public policy formulation and coordination ................................................... 105

4.1.4. Through access to quality public services ..................................................................................... 106

4.2. Pathway 2: Leveraging the efficiency frontier ....................................................................................... 109

4.2.1. Through labor market reforms ..................................................................................................... 109

4.2.2. Through targeted social protection programs .............................................................................. 110

4.2.3. Gender Mainstreaming ................................................................................................................. 111

4.3. Pathway 3: Pushing the efficiency frontier ............................................................................................ 112

4.3.1. Via early childhood development ................................................................................................. 112

4.3.2. Through quality of education ........................................................................................................ 113

4.3.3. Through urban and territorial development ................................................................................. 115

4.4. Pathway 4: Greening the efficiency frontier.......................................................................................... 116

4.4.1. Through integrated climate adaptation and water management ................................................ 116

4.5. Governance as the overarching cross-cutting pathway ........................................................................ 118

4.5.1. Through access to information and accountability ....................................................................... 119

4.5.2. Through voice, participation and engagement ............................................................................. 120

4.5.3. Through rule of law and justice..................................................................................................... 121

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 123

In-depth research ......................................................................................................................... 124

Annex 1. Data diagnostics ............................................................................................................ 125

References ................................................................................................................................... 128

iii Boxes

Box ES.1 Key findings of the Commission on Growth and Development ......................................................... xiv

Box ES.2 Promoting youth opportunities and participation in Morocco ......................................................... xvi

Box 1.1 Efforts toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC) ............................................................................... 12

Box 1.3 The composition and development of cash transfers ........................................................................ 14

Box 1.4 Inequalities of opportunities in early childhood development .......................................................... 17

Box 2.1 Strengthening the governance of SOEs .............................................................................................. 37

Box 2.2 The economics of cities ...................................................................................................................... 40

Box 3.1 Corruption across economic sectors in Morocco ............................................................................... 62

Total Factor Productivity .................................................................................................................... 69

Box 3.5 Poor public education service delivery ............................................................................................... 87

Box 3.6 Alleviating constraints to affordable quality healthcare .................................................................... 91

Box 3.7 Explanation of interpersonal trust in Morocco .................................................................................. 95

Box 3.8 Alleviating constraints to interpersonal trust ..................................................................................... 96

Box 4.1 The official calls for a new reform momentum .................................................................................. 98

Figures

Figure ES.1 GDP per capita growth rate, 1980-2015 ............................................................................................... x

Figure ES.2 Economic convergence between Morocco and Southern European countries (in percentage of

Moroccan GDP per capita, PPP in constant US dollar) ....................................................................... xii

Figure ES.3 Structural transformation in Morocco and in other middle-income countries .................................. xv

Figure ES.4 Share of those younger than 15 years of age relative to those older than 65 years of age in the

working-age population, 1950-2100 ................................................................................................. xvi

Figure ES.5 Economic growth of Moroccan cities sluggish compared with global comparators ........................ xvii

Figure ES.6 Reform pathways ............................................................................................................................... xix

Figure 1.1 Poverty and vulnerability rates by urban/rural, 2001-2014 ................................................................. 2

Figure 1.2 Poverty reduction between 2001-2014 by region ................................................................................ 2

Figure 1.3 Depth of poverty: evolution of the poverty gap ................................................................................... 3

Figure 1.4 Severity of poverty: evolution of the poverty gap squared .................................................................. 3

Figure 1.5 Annual growth rate B40 and T60 2001-07 et 2007-14 ......................................................................... 5

Figure 1.6 Inequality across regions 2001 and 2014 ............................................................................................. 5

Figure 1.7 Growth rate in expenditure and initial level of expenditure ................................................................ 6

Figure 1.8 Rural poverty to total by region, 2001-2014 ........................................................................................ 6

Figure 1.9 Multidimensional poverty .................................................................................................................... 7

Figure 1.10 Human Development Index 2000-2015 ................................................................................................ 8

Figure 1.11 Growth Incidence Curve in urban and rural areas ................................................................................ 9

Figure 1.12 Growth of per capita GDP and poverty reduction 2001-2014.............................................................. 9

Figure 1.13 Financial Inclusion Challenges ............................................................................................................ 10

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Figure 1.14 Share of households receiving transfers by source ............................................................................ 13

Figure 1.15 Average amount of transfers by quintile ............................................................................................ 15

Figure 1.16 Benefit incidence by quintile .............................................................................................................. 16

Figure 1.17 Density of primary health care inputs, 2013 ...................................................................................... 19

Figure 1.18 Geographical and socioeconomic disparities in health, 2011 ............................................................ 19

Figure 1.19 Gender disaggregated indicators of financial inclusion ...................................................................... 21

Figure 1.20 Degree of access to economic, social and cultural rights by region ................................................... 22

Figure 1.21 Subjective poverty 2007 and 2014 ..................................................................................................... 23

Figure 1.22 Subjective poverty by quintiles, 2007 and 2014 ................................................................................. 24

Figure 1.23 Share of food expenditure in budget ................................................................................................. 25

Figure 1.24 Share of the middle class .................................................................................................................... 26

Figure 2.1 Investment rate between 2000 and 2014 .......................................................................................... 29

Figure 2.2 Morocco Contribution of Capital, Labor, and Total Factor Productivity to Growth ........................... 30

Figure 2.3 GDP growth rate, 1999-2006 and 2007-2016 ..................................................................................... 31

Figure 2.4 Decomposition of the contributing factors to growth (demand side) ............................................... 33

Figure 2.5 Credit to the non-Financial Private sector (% of total) ....................................................................... 35

Figure 2.6 Private Sector Participation in infrastructure and infrastructure quality ........................................... 36

Figure 2.7 Subtype of private sector investment in infrastructure (2007-2015) ................................................. 38

Figure 2.8 Primary source of revenue for infrastructure projects with private sector participation .....................

(2007-2015) ........................................................................................................................................ 38

Figure 2.9 Economic activity geography in Morocco ........................................................................................... 39

Figure 2.10 Economic activity geography in Europe and North Africa .................................................................. 41

Figure 2.11 Urbanization versus development...................................................................................................... 42

Figure 2.12 Shares of employment and value-addition in cities by sectors .......................................................... 43

Figure 2.13 Labor productivity in Moroccan cities in international comparison ................................................... 44

Figure 2.14 Formal employment rate in Moroccan cities in international comparison ........................................ 44

Figure 2.15 Evolution of built-up areas against population growth rates in the three main agglomerations ...... 45

Figure 2.16 Cost of environmental degradation in Morocco in 2014.................................................................... 46

Figure 2.17 Youth unemployment and the nature of competitive advantage ...................................................... 49

Figure 2.18 Percentage of respondents reporting payment of bribes, by service ................................................ 50

Figure 2.20 Doctor absenteeism in Morocco by region ........................................................................................ 51

Figure 3.1 Morocco 2017 Doing Business Rank ................................................................................................... 54

Figure 3.2 Breakdown of Moroccan Investments ............................................................................................... 55

Figure 3.4 Enterprises that consider regulatory policy uncertainty to be an obstacle for their operations ....... 56

Figure 3.7 Ratio of the sectoral credit allocation to the nonfinancial private sector over the contribution ..... of

the nonfinancial sector to GDP and employment outside the nonfinancial private sector (2014) .... 59

Figure 3.8 Banking Sector Concentration ............................................................................................................ 59

Figure 3.9 Enterprises identifying corruption as a major obstacle ...................................................................... 61

Figure 3.10 Corruption obstacles .......................................................................................................................... 62

Figure 3.11 Access to Credit by Enterprise Size ..................................................................................................... 63

Figure 3.12 Net creation of jobs relative to the size of the working-age population (2014, in %) ........................ 65

Figure 3.13 Education level of employed persons (% of total - 2012) ................................................................... 67

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Figure 3.14 Workplace skills .................................................................................................................................. 67

Figure 3.15 Hiring and firing difficulties ................................................................................................................ 68

Figure 3.18 Number of exporters .......................................................................................................................... 72

Figure 3.19 Exporter concentration....................................................................................................................... 73

Figure 3.20 Rule of Law Index for Morocco, the Middle East and North Africa Region, and Lower-Middle .............

Income Countries................................................................................................................................ 78

Figure 3.22 Transparency and accountability legal framework and implementation score (2013-2017) ............. 80

Figure 3.23 Civil Service Wage Bill, including Local Governments, 2012, Percentage of GDP .............................. 81

Figure 3.24 Perceptions of how well the (central) government is performing ..................................................... 83

Figure 3.25 Share of private sector in enrolment in secondary school 1998/99 and 2013/14 ............................. 84

Figure 3.26 Causes of death (% of total) ʹ International comparisons (2015) ...................................................... 89

Figure 3.27 Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) ................................................................................................. 89

Figure 3.28 Health expenditure, public (% of total health expenditure) ............................................................... 90

Figure 3.29 Parent knowledge of early childhood development .......................................................................... 92

Figure 3.30 Rate of Participation by Women in the Labor Force .......................................................................... 94

Figure 3.31 Rate of Voluntary Membership of an Association .............................................................................. 95

Figure 4.1 Reform pathways ................................................................................................................................ 99

Figure 4.2 From the long list to the short list of key binding constraints .......................................................... 101

Figure 4.3 Phased Reform for of the SSN Delivery System in Morocco ............................................................ 110

Figure B1.1.1 Social health insurance schemes and coverage ................................................................................. 12

Figure B1.1.2 Share of households receiving transfers by quintile and source ........................................................ 14

Tables

Table ES.1 Critical areas and key binding constraints to reach the twin goals ................................................... xxi

Table 1.1 Impact of transfers on poverty ........................................................................................................... 16

Table 4.1 Critical areas and key binding constraints to reach the twin goals .................................................. 102

Table B3.2.1 Level of Market Distortion and Potential TFP Gains ........................................................................... 69

Maps

Map 1.1 Poverty rates by commune, 2014 ......................................................................................................... 4

Map 1.2 Number of poor by commune, 2014 .................................................................................................... 4

vi

Abstract

Over the last 15 years, thanks to pro-poor growth performance, investment in education, health and

other social services, and the deployment of social safety nets, Morocco has succeeded in eliminating

extreme poverty, reducing poverty and to a lesser degree sharing prosperity. Yet, to make further

poverty reduction progress, grow the middle class and meet the economic, social and societal aspirations

of Moroccan youth, women and other vulnerable segments of society, Morocco needs to pursue a higher and more sustainable and inclusive pattern of economic growth that promotes job creation. The current growth model, however, shows signs of weaknesses as it is confronted with a series of

sustainability issues (from economic to financial, territorial, environmental or social) that risk, with

varying degrees of intensity, impeding progress toward emergence. Growth in the past two decades has

been mainly based on public capital accumulation that will be difficult to maintain without higher total

factor productivity gains in the future.

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) identifies the multifaceted lack of inclusion as the central factor

preventing the emergence of a more dynamic private sector and the realization of higher productivity

gains. This entails the lack of inclusive market institutions, lack of inclusive public institutions, lack of

inclusive human capital formation, and lack of inclusive social capital and opportunities for the youth,

women and citizens in general.

The SCD then proposes four pathways to govern toward greater efficiency, equity, education and

endurance. These pathways aim at getting Morocco closer to its efficiency frontier (through competition

and innovation, a more business-friendly environment, improved public policy formulation and

coordination, and better access to quality public services); leveraging the efficiency frontier for all

(through labor market reforms, better targeted social protection and increased gender equity); pushing

the efficiency frontier (through successful human capital formation and better management of

urbanization), and greening the efficiency frontier (through integrated water management and climate change adaptation). In the spirit of the 2011 Constitution, the SCD then considers that a change in

participation, and rule of law and justice) is required as the overarching cross-cutting pathway to make

all the others possible. vii

Acknowledgements

The Morocco Systematic Country Diagnostic was led by Jean-Pierre Chauffour (Lead Economist, IBRD)

with Rapti A. Goonesekere (Principal Economist, IFC) and the support of Kamel Braham, Fadila Caillaud,

Andrea Liverani, Philippe de Meneval, Jaafar Sadok Friaa and Gabriel Sensenbrenner (Program Leaders)

under the guidance of Eric Le Borgne, Kevin Carey and Benu Bidani (Practice Managers). The core team

practices (GPs), cross-cutting solutions areas (CCSAs), as well as from the International Monetary Fund.

The following table identifies team members representing these various units, who had specific

knowledge of and experience in Morocco and who provided expert input throughout the SCD process

under the guidance of Practice Managers Najy Benhassine (currently Director), Benoit Blarel, Hana Brixi,

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