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Chauffour

Morocco 2040

Morocco 2040

Emerging by Investing in

Intangible Capital

Jean-Pierre Chauffour

DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT

Countries and Regions

Morocco 2040

DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT

Countries and Regions

Morocco 2040

Emerging by Investing in Intangible Capital

Jean-Pierre Chauffour

© 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

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Attribution

—Please cite the work as follows: Chauffour, Jean-Pierre. 2018.

Morocco 2040

: Emerging by

Investing in Intangible Capital.

Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4. License:

Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO

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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1066-4

ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1077-0

DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4

Cover design:

Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc.

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© iStock.com/Saiko3p (http://www.istockphoto.com/photo/hassan-mosque-design-gm622427052 -108980593). Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested. v

Contents

Foreword xiii

Preface

xv

Acknowledgments

xvii

About the Author

xxiii

Overview

xxv

Introduction

A Youth in Search of Opportunities 1

Amine: Young and Unskilled

6

Nisrine: Young and Low-Skilled

7

Kawtar: Young and Skilled

8

Réda: Young and Highly Skilled

9

Amine, Nisrine, Ka

wtar, and Réda 10 Notes 11

References

12

Part I Morocco Today and Tomorrow 13

Chapter 1 Morocco in 2016 15

The Start of Economic and Social Convergence

15

A Slow and Incomplete Convergence Process

29

The Flagging Development Model

43
The Challenges of a Slow Structural Transformation 65
Notes 86

References

88

Chapter 2

Morocco in 2040 93

A Window of Opportunity

94

Morocco at a Crossroads

105

Changing the Development Paradigm

113
Notes 124

References

125
vi Part II Intangible Capital: The Pathway to Economic

Emergence 129

Chapter 3 Investing in Market Support Institutions 131

Allocating Capital More Competitively

132

Allocating Labor More Efficiently and Inclusively

153

Integrating Morocco More Closely with the

International Economy

166
Notes 182

References

184

Chapter 4

Investing in Institutions and Public Services 189

Strengthening the Rule of Law and Justice

190

Modernizing the Civil Service

199

Improving Public Service Governance

209
Notes 219

References

220

Chapter 5

Investing in Human Capital 225

Placing Education at the Heart of Development

225

Investing in Health for Improved Well-Being

245

Prioritizing Early Childhood as the Foundation of

Human Capital

262
Notes 269

References

271

Chapter 6

Investing in Social Capital 275

Contribution of Social Capital to Development

276

Achieving Gender Equality

278
Fostering Interpersonal Trust and Civic Responsibility 298
Notes 311

References

312

Epilogue

The Political Economy of Change—An

Essential Transition

317

Improve Information Sharing with Actors

320

Change and Comply with the Rules of the Game

325
Notes 330

References

330
Boxes

1.1 From the Concept of GDP to the Notion of Wealth 20

1.2

The Total Wealth of Nations and Its Components 22

1.3

Growth in Morocco's Wealth and Its Components,

1999-2013

24
1.4

Modeling the Components of Intangible Capital 26

vii

1.5 What Is the Middle-Class Income Threshold? 41

1.6

Growth Accounting 44

1.7 A Brief History of Productivity in the Moroccan Economy,

1960-2015

50
1.8 Economic Contribution of Overexploitation of Groundwater in Morocco 58
1.9 Is Morocco the Only Country Concerned by Premature

Deindustrialization?

72
2.1 Even in Morocco, a Degree Is the Best Insurance against

Unemployment

104
2.2

Avoiding the “Middle-Income Tr

ap" in a Context of Slower

Growth

106
2.3

Morocco at a Crossroads 107

2.4 Growing Consensus around Key Reforms to Strengthen

Institutional and Human Capital

116
2.5

Institutional School of Development Economics 119

2.6 Definition, Characteristics, and Consequences of an

Open Society

120
2.7 The “Desirable Morocco" Scenario Goes Back 10 Y ears 123
3.1 European Experience with the Liberalization of the

Broadband Sector

140
3.2 Measuring the Effects of Market Distortions in Morocco"s

Manufacturing Sector on Potential T

otal Factor Productivity 142
3.3 Conditions for Renault"s Installation in Tangier 144 5.1 Origins of “Limited Literacy" in Moroccan Society,

Extracts

from Janjar, 2016 229
5.2

Measuring “Total Income" 247

6.1

Morality and Religion in an Open Society 279

6.2 Government Equality Plan and Gender Responsive Budgeting 282 6.3 Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies on Gender

Inequalities and Growth in Morocco

294
6.4 Notions of Bonding Social Capital and Bridging Social Capital 302 6.5

Status of Social Cohesion in Morocco 304

E.1

Game Theory 318

E.2 Characteristics of Extractive and Inclusive Institutions 319 E.3

Information Theory 322

E.4 Institutionalization of Public Policy Experimentation in China 324 E.5 New Rules of the Game and the 2011 Constitution 327 E.6

The New Rules of the Game Imported from the

European Union

329

Figures

I.1 What Are Morocco"s General Issues and Development Priorities? 4 1.1

Morocco: Per Capita GDP 16

viii

1.2 Economic Convergence of Morocco with Southern Europe 17

B.1.2.1

The Components of the Wealth of Nations 22

1.3

Morocco: Growth in Total W

ealth per Capita and

Components, 1990-2013

23
1.4 Breakdown of Middle-Income Countries' Intangible Capital,

2005-11

25
1.5 Morocco: Per Capita GDP in 2015, International Comparison 30 1.6

The Economic Miracles' 30-Year Boom Periods 30

1.7 Per Capita GDP in Morocco and Middle-Income Countries,

1990-2015

31
1.8

Per Capita GDP in Morocco, the Republic of Korea,

and Turkey, 1990-2015 32
1.9

Per Capita Wealth Growth and Composition, 2000 vs

. 2011 33
1.10 Morocco: Per Capita Wealth Growth and Composition, 2011
33
1.11

Share of Intangible Capital in Total Wealth,

2000-11

34
1.12

Child Mortality in 2015 35

1.13

Share of Food in the Household Budget, 2010 36

1.14

Reading Literacy Inequalities 37

1.15

Morocco: Gini Coefficient, 1985-2014 37

1.16

Ten-Year-Old Students (Grade 4) with Basic Liter

acy Skills 39
1.17

World Happiness Index Country Rankings, 2017 40

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