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United Nations

United Nations

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United Nations

New York, 2016

For further information, see http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml or contact:

DESA

MR. WU HONGBO, Under-Secretary-General

Department of Economic and Social A?airs

Room S-2922

United Nations

New York, NY 10017

USA +1-212-9635958 wuh@un.org

UNCTAD

DR. MUKHISA KITUYI, Secretary-General

United Nations Conference on Trade

and Development

Room E-9042

Palais de Nations

1211 Geneva 10

Switzerland

+41-22-9175806
sgo@unctad.org ECA

DR. CARLOS LOPES, Executive Secretary

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

Menelik II Avenue

P.O. Box 3001

Addis Ababa

Ethiopia

+251-11-5511231
ecainfo@uneca.org ECE

MR. CHRISTIAN FRIIS BACH, Executive Secretary

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

Palais des Nations

CH-1211 Geneva 10

Switzerland

+41-22-9174444
info.ece@unece.org ECLAC

MS. ALICIA BÁRCENA, Executive Secretary

Economic Commission for Latin America

and the Caribbean

Vitacura

Santiago, Chile

Chile +56-2-22102000
secepal@cepal.org ESCAP

DR. SHAMSHAD AKHTAR, Executive Secretary

Economic and Social Commission for Asia

and the Paci?c

United Nations Building

Rajadamnern Nok Avenue

Bangkok 10200

Thailand

+66-2-2881234
unescap@unescap.org ESCWA

MS. RIMA KHALAF, Executive Secretary

Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

P.O. Box 11-8575

Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut

Lebanon

+961-1-981301
@ http://www.escwa.un.org/main/contact.asp

ISBN: 978-92-1-109172-4

eISBN: 978-92-1-057673-4

United Nations publication

Sales No. E.16.II.C.2

Copyright @ United Nations, 2016

All rights reserved

?e World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social A?airs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the ?ve United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Eco- nomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paci?c (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)). ?e United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) contributed to the report. ?e report also bene?ted from inputs received from the national centres of Project LINK and also from the deliberations in the Project LINK meeting held in New York on 21-23 October 2015. ?e forecasts presented in the report draw on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) of UN/DESA. ?is publication was coordinated by Hamid Rashid, Chief, Global Economic Moni- toring Unit, Development Policy and Analysis Division (DPAD), under the management of Pingfan Hong, Director, DPAD. Lenni Montiel, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic

Development in UN/DESA provided general guidance.

?e contributions of Grigor Agabekian, Hoi Wai Cheng, Yi Ho Chen, Anis Chowd- hury, Peter Chowla, Ann D'Lima, Myriel Frische, Cordelia Gow, Tim Hilger, Dawn Hol- land, Jiayin Hu, Jasmine Hyman, Matthias Kempf, Leah C. Kennedy, Mary Lee Kortes, Alex Kucharski, Michael Lennard, Hung-Yi Li, Ingo Pitterle, Daniel Platz, Vladimir Popov, Hamid Rashid, Gerard F. Reyes, Ilka Ritter, Gabe Scelta, Benu Schneider, Oliver Schwank, Nancy Settecasi, Krishnan Sharma, Shari Spiegel, Alex Trepelkov, Willem Van Der Geest, Sebastian Vergara, Sergio P. Vieira, Jie Wei and Jinyang Zhang from UN/DESA; Bruno Antunes, Alfredo Calcagno, Pilar Fajarnes, Samuel Gayi, Ricardo Gottschalk, Mina Mash- ayekhi, Nicolas Maystre, Alessandro Nicita, Janvier Nkurunziza, Romain Perez, Edgardo Torija Zane and Komi Tsowou from UNCTAD; Yesuf Mohammednur Awel, Adam Elhi- raika, Hopestone Chavula, Abbi Kedir, Heini Suominen from ECA; José Palacín from ECE; Esteban Perez Caldentey, Ramon Pineda and Daniel Titelman from ECLAC; Hamza Ali Malik, Shuvojit Banerjee, Daniel Jeongdae Lee, Oliver Paddison, Kiatkanid Pongpanich and Vatcharin Sirimaneetham from ESCAP; Mohamed El Moctar Mohamed El Hacene, Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Nathalie Khaled, Jose Antonio Pedrosa Garcia and Yasuhisa Yamamoto from ESCWA; Michel Julian, John Kester, and Javier Ruescas from UNWTO are duly acknowledged.

Explanatory notes

The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout the report:

Two dots

A dash

A full stop

A hyphen

A minus

A slash

Use of a hyphenbetween years

Reference to “dollars"

Reference to “billions"

Reference to “tons"

Annual rates

Details and percentages

Project LINK

country classi?cations Data

30 November 2015

AAAA ASEAN BEPS BIS bpd BoJ BRICS CIS CFC CPI DBs DFIs DFDQ ECB EU FDI Fed FSB G7 G20 GATS GATT GCC GDP GVCs ICT IFF ILO IMF INDC LDCs LME MDBs MDGs MFN MNEs MOM MTS NAMA NDBs ODA OECD OPEC pb QE REER RVCs RTAs SDGs SMEs SOEs SWFs TFA TISA TPP

UN/DESA

UN/ECA

UN/ECE

UN/ECLAC

UN/ESCAP

UN/ESCWA

UNCTAD

UNFCCC

UNWTO WGP WTO

Executive summary

Prospects for global macroeconomic development

?e world gross product is projected to grow by a mere 2.4 per cent in 2015, a signi?cant downward revision from the 2.8 per cent forecast in the World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2015. More than seven years after the global ?nancial crisis, policymak- ers around the world still face enormous challenges in stimulating investment and reviving global growth. ?e world economy has been held back by several major headwinds: per- sistent macroeconomic uncertainties and volatility; low commodity prices and declining trade ows; rising volatility in exchange rates and capital ows; stagnant investment and diminishing productivity growth; and a continued disconnect between ?nance and real sector activities. A modest improvement is expected to start next year, with global growth reaching 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. ?e anticipated timing and pace of normalization of the United States monetary policy stance is expected to reduce some policy uncertainties, while preventing excessive volatility in exchange rates and asset prices. While the normalization will eventually lead to higher borrowing costs, rising interest rates should encourage ?rms to increase investments in the short run. ?e improvement in global growth is also predicated on easing of downward pressures on com- modity prices, which should encourage new investments and lift growth, particularly in commodity-dependent economies. Growth in developed economies is expected to continue gaining momentum in 2016, sur- passing 2 per cent for the ?rst time since 2010. In developing and transition economies, growth slowed in 2015 to its weakest pace since the global ?nancial crisis amid sharply lower commodity prices, large capital outows and increased ?nancial market volatility. Growth is projected to reach 4.3 per cent in 2016 and 4.8 per cent in 2017, up from an estimated 3.8 per cent in 2015. Despite the slowdown in China, East and South Asia will remain the world's fastest-growing regions, with many of the region's commodity-import- ing economies bene?ting from low prices for oil, metals and food. GDP growth in the least developed countries is expected to rebound from 4.5 per cent in 2015 to 5.6 per cent growth in 2016, but will fall short of the Sustainable Development Goal target of at least 7 per cent GDP growth per annum in the near term. While developing countries have been the locomotive of global growth since the ?nancial crisis, the developed economies, particularly the United States of America, are expected to contribute more to global growth during the forecast period. Amid persistent output gaps, declining commodity prices and weak aggregate demand, global in?ation is at its lowest level since 2009. In developed-market economies, annual in?ation in 2015 is expected to average just 0.3 per cent. Ultra-loose monetary conditions have so far prevented de?ation from becoming entrenched in the developed countries. How- ever, low in?ation has been associated with higher levels of volatility in in?ation, growth, investment and consumption in a majority of large developed and developing countries and economies in transition. Signi?cant currency depreciations have o?set the disin?ationary pressures in several developing economies. ?e Brazilian real and the Russian rouble have recorded large depreciations, and both countries remain mired in severe economic down- turns, accompanied by elevated in?ation. Unemployment is on the rise in many developing and transition economies, especially in South America, while it remains stubbornly high in countries such as South Africa. At the same time, labour force participation rates, especially among women and youth, have been declining, and job insecurity has become more widespread, amid a shift from salaried work to self-employment. ?e declining employment intensity of growth in many countries, coupled with stagnant real wages, poses a challenge to promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment and decent work for all. Growth rates of ?xed capital formation have registered sharp declines in a majority of developed and developing economies since 2014, including negative investment growth in nine economies. ?e weak aggregate demand, falling commodity prices and persistent policy uncertainties constrained investment growth during 2014-2015. A modest pickup in investment is expected, provided commodity prices do not slide down further and the an- ticipated normalization of the United States monetary stance reduces policy uncertainties. However, coordinated e?orts are still needed at national and international levels to ensure that ?nancial sectors e?ectively intermediate savings and liquidity and also stimulate ?xed investments. ?e broad slowdown in economic growth in many developing economies and generally weak wage growth will restrain progress in poverty reduction in the near term. Further progress in poverty reduction will rely heavily on policies to reduce inequality, such as investment in education, health and infrastructure, and stronger social safety nets. Global energy-related carbon emissions experienced no growth in 2014 for the ?rst time in 20 years, with the exception of 2009 when the global economy contracted, suggesting that a delinking of economic growth and carbon emission growth is possible with appropriate policies and adequate investment. Low-carbon energy sources now account for over 50 per cent of new energy consumption worldwide.

International trade and financial flows

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