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Analytical Perspectives

Budget of the U.S. Government

Office of Management and Budgetwww.budget.gov

Fiscal Year 2011

Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal

Year 2011 contains the Budget Message of the President, information on the President"s priorities, budget over- views organized by agency, and summary tables. Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United

States Government, Fiscal Year 2011

contains analy- ses that are designed to highlight speci ed subject ar- eas or provide other signi cant presentations of budget data that place the budget in perspective. This volume includes economic and accounting analyses; information on Federal receipts and collections; analyses of Federal spending; information on Federal borrowing and debt; baseline or current services estimates; and other techni- cal presentations. The Analytical Perspectives volume also contains sup- plemental material with several detailed tables, including tables showing the budget by agency and account and by function, subfunction, and program, that is available on the Internet and as a CD-ROM in the printed document. Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2011 provides data on budget receipts, outlays, surpluses or de cits, Federal debt, and Federal employment over an extended time period, gener- ally from 1940 or earlier to 2011 or 2015. To the extent feasible, the data have been adjusted to provide consistency with the 2011 Budget and to provide comparability over time.

Appendix, Budget of the United States

Government, Fiscal Year 2011

contains detailed in- formation on the various appropriations and funds that constitute the budget and is designed primarily for the use of the Appropriations Committees. The Appendix con-

tains more detailed nancial information on individual programs and appropriation accounts than any of the other budget documents. It includes for each agency: the proposed text of appropriations language; budget sched-

ules for each account; legislative proposals; explanations of the work to be performed and the funds needed; and proposed general provisions applicable to the appropria- tions of entire agencies or group of agencies. Information is also provided on certain activities whose transactions are not part of the budget totals.

AUTOMATED SOURCES OF

BUDGET INFORMATION

The information contained in these documents is avail- able in electronic format from the following sources: Internet. All budget documents, including documents that are released at a future date, spreadsheets of many of the budget tables, and a public use budget database are available for downloading in several formats from the Internet at www.budget.gov/budget. Links to documents and materials from budgets of prior years are also provided.

Budget CD-ROM. The CD-ROM contains all of the

budget documents in fully indexed PDF format along with the software required for viewing the documents. The CD-ROM has many of the budget tables in spreadsheet format and also contains the materials that are included on the separate

Analytical Perspectives

CD-ROM.

For more information on access to electronic versions of the budget documents (except CD-ROMs), call (202)

512-1530 in the D.C. area or toll-free (888) 293-6498. To

purchase the budget CD-ROM or printed documents call (202) 512-1800.

THE BUDGET DOCUMENTS

GENERAL NOTES

1. All years referenced for budget data are scal years unless otherwise noted. All years referenced for economic data are calendar years un-

less otherwise noted.

2. Detail in this document may not add to the totals due to rounding.

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON 2010

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Charts and Tables ........................................................................

Introduction

1. Introduction ........................................................................

Economic and Budget Analyses

2. Economic Assumptions ........................................................................

3. Interactions Between the Economy and the Budget ...............................................................19

4. Financial Stabilization Efforts and Their Budgetary Effects .................................................27

5. Long Term Budget Outlook ........................................................................

...............................45

6. Federal Borrowing and Debt ........................................................................

.............................55

Performance and Management

7. Delivering High-Performance Government ........................................................................

.....73

8. Program Evaluation ........................................................................

9. Benet-Cost Analysis ........................................................................

10. Improving the Federal Workforce ........................................................................

.....................99

Budget Concepts and Budget Process

11. Budget Concepts ........................................................................

12. Coverage of the Budget ........................................................................

...................................137

13. Budget Process ........................................................................

Federal Receipts

14. Governmental Receipts ........................................................................

...................................159

15. Offsetting Collections and Offsetting Receipts ......................................................................193

16. Tax Expenditures ........................................................................

Special Topics

17. Aid to State and Local Governments ........................................................................

..............247

18. Strengthening Federal Statistics ........................................................................

....................315

19. Information Technology........................................................................

...................................321

20. Federal Investment ........................................................................

21. Research and Development........................................................................

.............................339

22. Credit and Insurance ........................................................................

23. Homeland Security Funding Analysis........................................................................

............379

24. Federal Drug Control Funding ........................................................................

.......................387 ii

25. California-Federal Bay-Delta Program Budget Crosscut (CALFED) ...................................389

Technical Budget Analyses

26. Current Services Estimates ........................................................................

............................393

27. Trust Funds and Federal Funds ........................................................................

.....................417

28. National Income and Product Accounts ........................................................................

.........433

29. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals ........................................................................

.....439

30. Budget and Financial Reporting ........................................................................

....................447

31. Social Indicators ........................................................................

iii

LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES

v

LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES

LIST OF CHARTS

2-1. Relative House Prices Stopped Falling in 2009 ........................................................................

.9

2-2. The One-Month LIBOR Spread over the One-Month Treasury Yield has

Returned to Pre-Crisis Levels

..........................10

2-3. The Personal Saving Rate has Risen Sharply since 2008 .......................................................11

2-4. The Lag between the Turnaround in Real GDP and the Turning Point for

Payroll Employment and the Unemployment Rate

2-5. Real GDP Growth Following a Recession: Five-Year Averages...............................................14

3-1. Forecast Alternatives: Real GDP ........................................................................

......................22

3-2. Range of Uncertainty for the Budget Decit ........................................................................

...24

4-1. Proposed Federal Financial Reforms........................................................................

................43

5-1. Sources of Projected Growth in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security .............................46

5-2. Health Care Cost Alternatives ........................................................................

.........................48

5-3. Alternative Discretionary Projections ........................................................................

..............49

5-4. Alternative Revenue Projections ........................................................................

......................49

5-5. Alternative Productivity Assumptions ........................................................................

.............50

5-6. Alternative Fertility Assumptions ........................................................................

....................50

5-7. Alternative Immigration Assumptions ........................................................................

.............51

5-8. Alternative Mortality Assumptions ........................................................................

..................52

10-1. Federal Civilian Workforce as Share of U.S. Population .........................................................99

10-2. Pa y Raises for Federal vs. Private Workforce ........................................................................

100

10-3. Education Level Distribution in Federal vs. Private Workforce ...........................................100

10-4. Federal Age Distribution in 1970 and 2009 ........................................................................

...101

10-5. Federal vs . Private Age Distribution in 2009 ........................................................................

.102

10-6. Actual and Projected Federal Employee Retirements ...........................................................102

10-7. Federal General Sc hedule Distribution in 1953 and 2009 ....................................................103

10-8. Federal vs . Private Turnover Before and During Recession .................................................103

11-1. Relationship of Budget Authority to Outlays for 2011 ..........................................................126

19-1. Totals for F ederal IT Spending, Infrastructure Share of Spending and

Data Center Growth

19-2. Components of Federal IT Spending - Mission Support and Infrastructure .......................323

22-1. Face Value of Federal Credit Outstanding ........................................................................

.....363

30-1. Net Federal Liabilities ........................................................................

vii

LIST OF TABLES

Economic and Budget Analyses

Economic Assumptions

2-1. Economic Assumptions ........................................................................

............................ 13

2-2. Comparison of Economic Assumptions ........................................................................

.... 16

2-3. Comparison of Economic Assumptions in the 2010 and 2011 Budgets ......................... 17

Interactions Between the Economy and the Budget

3-1. Sensitivity of the Budget to Economic Assumptions ...................................................... 21

3-2. GDP Forecast Errors, January 1982-Present ................................................................. 22

3-3. Budget Effects of Alternative Scenarios ........................................................................

.. 23

3-4. The Structural Balance ........................................................................

............................ 25 Financial Stabilization Efforts and Their Budgetary Effects

4-1. Costs of Troubled Asset Relief Program Actions (Excluding Debt Service) ................. 35

4-2. Troubled Asset Relief Program Current Value as Reected in the Budget .................. 35

4-3. Troubled Asset Relief Program Face Value of TARP Outstanding ................................ 36

4-4. Troubled Asset Relief Program Effects on the Decit and Debt

as Reected in the Budget ..................... 37

4-5. Troubled Asset Relief Program Effects on the Decit and Debt

Calculated on a Cash Basis ........................................................................ .................... 38

4-6. Troubled Asset Relief Program Reestimates................................................................... 39

4-7. Detailed TARP Program Levels and Costs .................................................................... 40

4-8. Comparison of OMB and CBO TARP Costs .................................................................... 41

Long Term Budget Outlook

5-1. Long-Run Budget Projections ........................................................................

................. 47

5-2. Fiscal Gap under Alternative Budget Scenarios............................................................. 52

5-3. Intermediate Actuarial Projections for OASDI and HI .................................................. 53

Federal Borrowing and Debt

6-1. Trends in Federal Debt Held by the Public ..................................................................... 55

6-2. Federal Government F inancing and Debt ....................................................................... 58

6-3. Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets and Liabilities................................... 61

6-4. Agency Debt ........................................................................

.............................................. 63

6-5. Debt Held by Government Accounts ........................................................................

....... 64

6-6. Federal Funds F inancing and Change in Debt Subject to Statutory Limit .................. 68

6-7. Foreign Holdings of F ederal Debt ........................................................................

............ 69

Performance and Management

Program Evaluation

8-1. Funded Program Evaluation Initiative Proposals ........................................................ 91

Benet-Cost Analysis

9-1. Estimates of the Total Annual Benets and Costs of Major Rules

Reviewed by OMB in Fiscal Year 2008

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