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Urbanization

Prospects

The 2018 Revision

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Department of Economic and Social Affairs

World Urbanization Prospects

The 2018 Revision

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between

global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works

in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and

environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common

problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many

intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it

advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United

Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps

build national capacities.

The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides the international community

with timely and accessible population data and analysis of population trends and development outcomes for all

countries and areas of the world. To this end, th e Division undertakes regular studies of population size and

characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). Founded

in 1946, the Population Division provides substantive support on population and development issues to the

United Nations General Assembly, the Economic and Social Council and the Commission on Population and

Development. It also leads or participates in various interagency coordination mechanisms of the United

Nations system. The work

of the Division also contributes to strengthening the capacity of Member States to monitor population trends and to address current and emerging population issues. Notes The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any

opinions whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any

country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The term "country" as used in this report also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.

This report is available in electronic format on the Division's website at www.unpopulation.org. For further

information about this report, please contact the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social

Affairs, United Nations, Two United Nations Plaza, DC2-1950, New York, 10017, USA; phone: +1 212-963-3209;

email: population@un.org.

Suggested citation:

United Nations, Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, Population Division (201

9). World Urbanization

Prospects: The 2018 Revision (ST/ESA/SER.A/420). New York: United Nations.

Official symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with numbers, as

illustrated in the above citation.

Cover photo credit: Bogotá, Colombia

, by Dominic Chavez/World Bank, 2016, used under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0, cropped from original.

Published by the United Nations

Sales no.: E.19.XIII.

7 ISBN: 978
-92-1-148319-2 eISBN: 978-92-1-004314-4

Copyright © 2019 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO:

iii United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

PREFACE

This report presents the results of the

official United Nations estimates and projections of urban and

rural populations for 233 countries and areas of the world and for close to 1,900 urban settlements with

300,000 inhabitants or more in 2018, as published in .

The data in this

revision are consistent with the total populations estimated and projected according to the medium variant of the of the United Nations global population estimates and projections, published in . This revision updates and supersedes previous estimates and projections published by the United Nations.

Other products

presenting the results of the include a Highlights publication. 1 a methodological report, 2 among others. In preparing the , particular attention was given to the

production of detailed documentation on the data sources and definitions used at the country level, as well

as for cities and urban agglomerations. The full metadata compiled in this regard are accessible on the

Population Division"s website.

3 The site also includes useful figures and maps illustrating the results obtained. Responsibility for the rests with the Population Division. In preparing the 2018 revision,

the Population Division relied on the collaboration of the Statistics Division of the Department of Economic

and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat; its and its accompanying databases have provided access to official national population statistics used in the preparation of the 2018 revision. The Population Division also acknowledges the use of information accessible via the website citypopulation.de and the support of national statistical offices that made

available data and reports from recent censuses and surveys. The Population Division is grateful for the

contributions made by all these entities.

This report

and/or the underlying datasets were prepared by a team led by François Pelletier, that includ ed Lina Bassarsky, Danan Gu, Sara Hertog, Mun Sim Lai, Cheryl Sawyer, Thomas Spoorenberg and Guangyu Zhang. Igor Ribeiro contributed programming and data processing, and Neena Koshy provided formatting and editorial support. Frank Swiaczny provided comments and inputs on the draft report.

This publication is accessible on the website of the Population Division at www.unpopulation.org. For

further information about the 2018 Revision, please contact the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, Two United Nations Plaza, DC2-1950, New York, NY

10017, USA; tel.: +1 212

-963-3209; email: population@un.org. 1

United Nations (2019). (ST/ESA/SER.A/421).

2 United Nations (2018a). . Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.252. 3 http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

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v

United Nations

Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

CONTENTS

PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................................................... iii

E

XPLANATORY NOTES ................................................................................................................................................ viii

C LASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION, INCOME GROUP AND GEOGRAPHIC SUBREGION OF THE WORLD

.................................................................................................................................................................... x

E

XECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ xix

INTRODUCTION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS .................................................................................................................... 1

A. Urbanization and sustainable development ...................................................................................................... 3

B. Data and methods ............................................................................................................................................. 5

I. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION GROWTH AND WORLD URBANIZATION PROSPECTS .............................................. 9

A. Overview of world urbanization trends ............................................................................................................ 9

B. Contrasting urbanization trends in the less developed regions and the more developed regions ................... 12

C. Patterns of urban and rural growth by income group ..................................................................................... 21

D. Patterns of urban and rural growth in the six geographic regions of the world .............................................. 23

II. URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH AT THE COUNTRY LEVEL .................................................. 33

A. The level of urbanization ................................................................................................................................ 33

B. The size and growth of the urban and rural populations ................................................................................. 43

C. The rate of urbanization .................................................................................................................................. 47

III. PATTERNS OF CITY GROWTH.................................................................................................................................. 55

A. The Hierarchy of cities and urban system ...................................................................................................... 55

B. Patterns of city growth over time ................................................................................................................... 71

IV. SOURCE OF DATA ON URBAN AND CITY POPULATION ............................................................................................ 81

REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................................. 101

T ABLES

Table 1. Number of countries according to the criteria used in defining urban areas, ......................... 6

Table 2. Number of countries according to the criteria used in defining city populations, .................. 7

Table I.1. Total, urban and rural populations and their average annual rates of change, for the world and

development groups, selected years and periods, 1950 -2050 ....................................................................... 9

Table I.2. Milestones in world total and urban populations ......................................................................................... 11

Table I.3. Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, by development group, selected years and

periods, 1950

-2050 ..................................................................................................................................... 11

Table I.4. The total, urban and rural populations of the world, the more developed regions and the less

developed regions, 1950, 1970, 1990, 2018, 2030 and 2050 ...................................................................... 13

Table I.5. Percentage urban and average annual rate of change of the urban and total population of China,

1950

-2050 ................................................................................................................................................... 18

Table I.6. Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, the more developed regions and the less

developed regions, 1950

-2050 .................................................................................................................... 21

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision

Table I.8. Evolution of the urban, rural and total populations of the world, by geographic region, selected years,

1950

-2050 ................................................................................................................................................... 25

Table I.9. Average annual increment of the urban population and distribution of that increment by geographic

region, selected periods, 1950-2050 ........................................................................................................... 26

Table I.10. Percentage urban and rate of urbanization of the world, by geographic region, selected periods,

1950

-2050 ................................................................................................................................................... 26

Table II.1. Countries or areas with more than 90 per cent of their population residing in urban areas, in 1950,

1990, 2018 and 2050* ................................................................................................................................ 39

Table II.2. The ten least urbanized countries or areas in 1950, 1990, 2018 and 2050* ............................................... 40

Table II.3. The 30 countries with the largest increases and declines in rural population projected between 2018

and 2050 ..................................................................................................................................................... 46

Table II.4. The ten fastest urbanizing countries or areas, 1950-1990, 1990-2018, and 2018-2050, by rank order ...... 52

Table II.5. Countries or areas with declining percentage urban, 1990-2018* ............................................................. 53

Table III.1. Population distribution of the world, by rural/urban area of residence and size class of urban

settlement, 1970, 1990, 2018 and 2030 ...................................................................................................... 55

Table III.2. Population distribution and number of urban agglomerations of the world and its geographic

regions, ....................................................................................................................................................... 59

Table III.3. Population and number of urban agglomerations of the income groups and development groups by

size class of urban settlement, 1970, 1990, 2018 and 2030 ........................................................................ 66

Table III.4. Population of urban agglomerations with the highest degrees of primacy, urban population and

percentage urban by countries, 2018 .......................................................................................................... 70

Table III.5. Population size and average annual rate of change of the fastest-growing urban agglomerations in

1990

-2018 and 2018-2030 .......................................................................................................................... 74

Table III.6. Urban agglomerations with 5 million inhabitants or more, 1970, 2018 and 2030 .................................... 77

F

IGURES

Figure I.1. Estimated and projected urban populations of the world, the more developed regions ............................. 13

Figure I.2. Annual increment of the urban population of the more developed regions and the less developed

regions, ....................................................................................................................................................... 14

Figure I.3. Annual increment of the world's population, annual increment of the urban population of the less

developed regions and urban increment of the less developed regions as a percentage of the world

total increment ............................................................................................................................................ 15

Figure I.4. Average annual rate of change of the urban populations of the world, the more developed regions

and the less developed regions, 1950

-2050 ................................................................................................ 16

Figure I.5. Average annual rate of change of the urban population, China and the less developed regions

excluding China, 1950-2050....................................................................................................................... 17

Figure I.6. Average annual rate of change of the urban, rural and total population of China, 1950-2050................... 17

Figure I.7. Average annual rate of change of the rural populations of the world, the more developed regions and

the less developed regions, 1950

-2050 ....................................................................................................... 19

Figure I.8. Estimated and projected rural populations of the world, the more developed regions and the less

developed regions, 19 50

-2050 .................................................................................................................... 20

Figure I.9. Percentage of population residing in urban areas by income group, 1950-2050........................................ 22

Figure I.10. Average annual rate of change of the urban population by geographic region, 1950-2050 ..................... 24

Figure I.11. Percentage of population residing in urban areas by geographic region, 1950-2050 ............................... 27

Figure I.12. Rate of urbanization by geographic region, 1950-2050 ........................................................................... 28

Figure I.13. Rate of urbanization, China and Asia excluding China, 1950-2050 ........................................................ 29

Figure I.14. Average annual rate of change of the rural population by geographic region, 1950-2050 ...................... 30

Figure II.1. Percentage of population residing in urban areas for all countries of the world, by geographic region

and population size, 1950, 2018 and 2050 ................................................................................................. 34

Figure II.2. Association between levels and rates of urbanization and gross national income (GNI) ......................... 42

Figure II.3. Urban population size in 2018 and increase in the projected urban population between 2018 and

2050 by countries ....................................................................................................................................... 44

vii

United Nations

Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

Figure II.4. Rural population size in 2018 by countries............................................................................................... 45

Figure II.5. Average annual rates of change of urban and rural populations in countries by geographic region,

1990

-2018* ................................................................................................................................................. 48

Figure II.6. Rate of urbanization and percentage urban in countries by geographic region, 1950-1990 and 1990-

2018 ............................................................................................................................................................ 49

Figure II.7. Rate of urbanization in countries by geographic region, 1950-1990, 1990-2018 and 2018-2050 ............ 51

Figure III.1. Population of the world, by area of residence and size class of urban settlement, 2018 ......................... 56

Figure III.2. Population and number of cities of the world, by size class of urban settlement, 1970, 1990, 2018

and 2030 ..................................................................................................................................................... 58

Figure III.3. Urban population of the world and geographic regions and number of cities, by size class of urban

settlement, 2018 .......................................................................................................................................... 62

Figure III.4. Urban population of the income groups and development groups, by size class of urban settlement,

2018 ............................................................................................................................................................ 64

Figure III.5. Urban agglomerations by average annual rate of change of the population, 1970-1990, 1990-2018

and 2018

-2030 ............................................................................................................................................ 72

Figure III.6. Population of the world's urban agglomerations with 15 million inhabitants or more in 2018, 1970-

2030 ............................................................................................................................................................ 76

B OX ES

Box I.1. What is urbanization? .................................................................................................................................... 10

Box I.2. Sources of urban growth ................................................................................................................................ 12

Box III.1. The definition of city ................................................................................................................................ 57

Box III.2. Definition of Cities and City population in China ................................................................................. 61

M APS

Map II.1. Percentage of population residing in urban areas, 1950, 2018 and 2050 ..................................................... 36

Map III.1. Cities by size class of urban settlement, 1990, 2018 and 2030 ................................................................... 65

World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision

EXPLANATORY NOTES

The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout this report:quotesdbs_dbs25.pdfusesText_31

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