[PDF] What role for cars in tomorrows world?

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REPORT

Social cohesion (primary and secondary education, youth and older people's employment, corporate governance, equal opportunity, social mobility, housing) Modernising public action (pension system, legal system, healthcare system) Economic competitiveness (entrepreneurship, energy & climate change, emerging states, corporate financing, intellectual property, transportation)

Public fina nce

(Tax system, social protection) Thanks to both its associated experts and its study groups, the Institut Montaigne produces practical long-term proposals on the substantial challenges that our contemporary societies are facing. It therefore helps shaping the evolutions of social consciousness. Its recommendations are based on a rigorous and critical method of analysis. These recommendations are then actively promoted to decision- making governmental officials. Throughout its publications, lectures and conferences, the Institut Montaigne aims to be a key contributor to the democratic debate. The Institut Montaigne ensures the scientific validity, accuracy and the quality of the work that it produces, yet the opinions portrayed by the authors are those of their own and not neces- sarily the Institut"s. The authorial opinions are therefore not to be attributed to the Institut nor to its governing bodies.

FOREWORD

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7

OPINION SURVEY ON CARS AND THEIR USES

25

INTRODUCTION

31
I -

THE SOCIETAL CHALLENGE

37

1.1. Bolstered by technological innovations and new uses,

cars remain an essential component of our mobility policies 39

1.2. Digital technology is revolutionising our behaviour towards cars,

but raises questions on the respect of privacy and computer security 59

1.3. Connected vehicles may improve road safety, but they also raise ethical issues

66
II -

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGE

75
2.1. Citizens have high expectations concerning air quality and climate protection, which must be treated differently 75

2.2. Public authorities' response remains uncoordinated

82

2.3. Aside from regulations concerning new vehicles, action

must be taken with respect to driver behaviour, in particular via new technologies 90

2.4. The emissions reduction of the new vehicles will benet from

the technological progress made by car manufacturers (and not only in terms of engine design) 100

CONTENTS

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III - THE ECONOMIC CHALLENGE

115

3.1. The development of the car of the future will transform the

value chain and help new stakeholders emerge 117

3.2. France has all the assets to invent the mobility of tomorrow

131

CONCLUSION

139

ANNEXES

141

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

169
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FOREWORD

The future of mobility:

from the car of "passion" to the car of "reason" by Luc Ferry As the son of a small racing car manufacturer, who was also one of the best drivers of the pre-war period, it could be said that cars are "in my blood". I grew up in a garage where dozens of Bugatti 35Bs, Cisitalias and Maserati 1500s lined up among the magnificent competition racing cars that my father used to build. I became an amateur racing driver and a tester for Car Life, a prestigious publi cation on sports cars. I do not mention this to boast, merely to point out that I am far from indifferent to the future of the cars. When I was young, cars had a whole range of characteristics that are now becoming more or less extinct. Cars were, first and foremost, a question of passion, a symbol of freedom and adventure. Buying a second-hand 2CV as soon as you passed your driving test and setting out alone (certainly not car-pooling!) with your girlfriend, was our dream. In the racing world, risk, and even the risk of death, reigned over the circuits. Until the end of the seventies, car racing was almost certainly one of the most dangerous sports in the world. I remember being with my dad in Montlhéry, in Reims, in Pau, and seeing a number of accidents that put an end to the lives of some of the best racing drivers of the 1960s. But cars were also about beauty: some of them can even be considered as the most beautiful works of art of the 20th century. The prices fetched by certain vintage models today certainly support this claim, since these cars have nothing to do with usefulness, and are all about aesthetic magnifi cence. Then came the quest for performance. Each year brought more powerful engines, more aerodynamic bodywork, more efficient brakes, and innovation of the competitive world gradually trickled www.institutmontaigne.org

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through to the general public"s consumption behaviour. Finally, cars were also a means of seduction. This passion has almost disappeared and the key words used to define today"s ideal car express more rational concepts. Reliability, comfort, safety, silence, ecology, and economy have taken priority, accompanying the move from the symbolic to the real, from the emotional to the reasonable. Three major innovations can be added to this mix, directly related to the third industrial revolution: car- pooling (as the French company, Blablacar offers), car-sharing (e.g. Autolib in Paris) and, most importantly, self-driving cars. This last innovation will bring undeniable progress: no need for a driving license, traffic lights, information signs, speed limits, as well as the end of drunk driving (since there is no driver), almost no more road accidents and out-of-town car parks, where cars will go and park themselves. Connected cars will become mobile offices, helping to save vast amounts of time, the most precious of all possessions. These revolutions come hand in hand with the younger generation"s relative disinterest in cars. Many young adults will prefer to spend their money on smartphones, video games and computers rather than the equivalent of the 2CV of my teenage dreams. One of the reasons is obviously that the multiplication of vehicles, combined with urbanisation, has made cars infinitely less mobile than what its less used title of “automobile would" suggests. In fact, it has become more of a burden than anything else in city centres: finding and paying for parking is now a headache in our major cities, wee kend trips a nightmare of overcrowded motorways and traffic jams in and out of the urban centres. We have experienced what Hegel might have called a “dialectic of mobility", a reversal of mobility into its opposite, with the slowness of heavy traffic eliminating any sense www.institutmontaigne.org

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of freedom. For all these reasons, it is obvious that the “office-car" will ultimately replace the original passion for cars - it is merely a question of time. Fluidity will return to the roads, accidents will almost cease to exist and vehicles will be able to transport people and goods without needing a driver, before taking themselves off to park on the outskirts of the cities. Huge progress indeed, but also the extinction of a dream that today"s under twenties will never have known. The present report explores these innovations, which will change our relationship to cars much faster that we might believe. It identifie s the major categories of problems that these changes will bring about, notably the societal, economic and ecological challenges. Reaching beyond simple theory, it offers a series of interesting proposals to stimulate the essential public debate on the future of mobility. I am sure that it will be of great interest to many. www.institutmontaigne.org

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

What role for tomorrow"s cars?

What lies ahead for cars? The need to improve air quality and the quest for more fluid means of mobility, and sometimes dogmatic viewpoints have led some to want to exclude cars from towns. Despite the undeniable progress that has been made to mitigate its impact, cars remain a source of undesirable externalities. In France, transport represented 26.9% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2013 1 and 28% of particulate emissions in the Île-de-France region. 2 Congestion in city centres leads to increase in both of these emissions and a considerable loss of time (estimated at 38 minutes per day in Paris 3 ) and money for those who drive. The recent, repeated scandals involving automobile manufacturers' efforts to falsify emission testing results have contributed to tarnishing the image of this industry. This lack of transparency increases nega- tive feelings towards a mode of transportation that is already the target of numerous criticisms. Cities' prohibition of certain types of vehicles and pedestrianisation of urban areas illustrate large cities' 1 Road transport of passengers and goods represents 95% of traffic. Source: European Environment Agency, October 2015. However, it should be noted that greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in the region have decreased 7.3% between 2004 and

2015 (source: The 2015 transport accounts, French Ministry of the Environment,

August 2016).

2 “Inventaire régional des émissions en Île-de-France" (Regional Emissions Inventory in

Île-de-France)

, Airparif, 2012. At the national level, concentrations of particles, in close proximity to road traffic and in urban settings, have been decreasing: P

M10 levels have

been going down since 2007, and PM2.5 since 2009 (source: "Les particules atmos phériques : la connaissance progresse", Datalab, February 2017, Ministry of the

Environment).

3

Source: TomTom Telematics, 2016 Traffic Index.

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“anti-car" dynamic. Today, this orientation appears to be the public authorities" preferred solution for overcoming the challenges faced by the future of mobility. But are cars really doomed to become a relic of the past, to disappear from our streets and our thoughts? To answer this question, the Montaigne Institute commissioned an in-depth survey 4 carried out not only in France, but also in Germany and in California, thereby providing the Institute with two additional sets of data to which data collected in France can be compared to. This survey concluded that cars remain a crucial social object for a very large part of the French population. It still enjoys a positive image for more than three quarters of the French: it is, above all, a source of independence and freedom (56%) and of pleasure (20%). Only 22% of those surveyed hold an unfavourable view of cars, regarding them as a source of expenditure (17%), a constraint (3%), or harmful to the environment (2%). It is certainly no coincidence that 99.2% of respondents do not consider giving up their car in the medium term, even in the most dense urban areas. Such attachment is identical in the two other geogra phical areas surveyed: Germany (98.7%) and California (99.5%). Moreover, cars are essential to a large proportion of the French population. More than 60% of them drive their car to work, 43.7% of whom have no alternative means of transportation. This proportion is greater than in Germany (35%) and in California (41%). Cars are more than just a gadget: they are a daily life necessity. This finding must be taken into consideration when reflecting on the automobiles" future. 4 Survey conducted by Kantar for Institut Montaigne in December 2016 in France, in Germany, and in California, with approximately 1,000 people surveyed per country. www.institutmontaigne.org

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Beyond cars" social, and even emotional, importance, is its funda mental economic role: in 2015, the French automotive industry employed 440,000 people 5 (full-time equivalents), almost half of whom work in the core business sector (car manufacturers, equip ment manufacturers, designers). It indirectly led to 2.1 million additional jobs according to the

Comité des Constructeurs Français

d"Automobiles (CFFA, Committee of French Automobile

Manufacturers)

6 , including via the trades related to using a car (sales, after-sales service, rental, etc.) and trades involved in mobility (road transport of goods, transport of passengers, etc.). The automotive sector generates 16% of the turnover of the French manufacturing industry as a whole, and is one of the leading patent-producing fields in France. Today, policies prioritise the fight against pollution over mobility issues, which are vital nonetheless. How can these two approaches be reconciled while maintaining ambitious economic and ecological objectives? Numerous innovations - both recently released and those still under development - show the real efforts being made by the automotive ecosystem both to respond to criticism and to meet citizens" needs. Whether by means of cars" new uses (carpooling, car hire between private individuals, private hire, etc.), the considerable progress made in engine design, or, of course, autonomous vehicles, in the future cars could optimise mobility and make a significant contribu tion to reducing pollution. 5

French Ministry of the Economy and Finance, 2016.

6 CCFA,

Analyses et statistiques 2016".

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However, cars have not yet reached this point: they generate both fascination and hostility, they are still indispensable but threatened, and run the risk of being driven out before being able to keep all its promises. And time is not on its side, since updating the fleet of cars on the road is slow work: it takes an estimated 20 years for an innovation to spread to half of the vehicles in circulation. The future of cars relies on overcoming three challenges: • A societal challenge: the revolution of connected and autonomous cars will make it possible to significantly develop multimodal transport policies and thus respond to communities" various chal- lenges involving mobility (safety, congestion, environment); • An environmental challenge: while the goals are known - improving air quality and fighting climate change - the strategy to achieve them can no longer be limited to imposing ever stricter standards on only new vehicles, it must be comprehensive (European harmo- nization, actions applicable to the entire fleet of cars, etc.); • An economic challenge: the automotive industry is innovating at a hectic pace, bolstered in part by newcomers (Tesla, Apple, Google), who are a direct threat to the sector"s traditional players. For France to produce the car of the future, cooperation between businesses and public authorities is crucial. In all these areas, close partnerships must be formed between public authorities, industry, and society. The future of the car depends on their collective capacity to respond to this threefold challenge and to ensure a fluid transition towards a new model of mobility. As such, to respond to these three challenges, the work group formu lated ten proposals. They are based on the following guiding principles: www.institutmontaigne.org

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Incentive measures, based on market mechanisms, are preferable to a coercive approach; Experimentation must be encouraged, starting with tests at the local level before considering a rapid, large-scale deployment; • Regulations must be guided by a results-based approach rather than a means-based approach, and allow actors enough latitude when making technological choices; they must consider the pro- blems in a comprehensive manner, to limit possibilities for circumvention; Standards harmonized at the European level allow the market to reach critical mass, without impeding local variations that take territories" specific characteristics into account; • All actors - public and private, established and new, large and small - can contribute to innovation, and progress by working collaboratively. www.institutmontaigne.org

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PROPOSALS

Responding to the societal challenge by making

cars a safer means of transport and improving links with other mobility solutions Proposal no. 1: Encourage public and private mobility players to develop intelligent and intermodal transport solutions to adapt supply to demand in real time ("group private hire», notably in low density areas). A large proportion of the country has little access to public transport because of profitability reasons. The development of connected vehicles offers a possible way out of this deadlock. Based on the private hire model, passenger transport services can be developed based on low capacity vehicles (minibus, etc.), whose routes would be adapted to real-time user requirements. This would represent a true revolution in the economics of public transport in low density areas. In addition to buses with fixed timetables and routes, an on-request shuttle system or "micro-transits" could be created, which would only run if enough users were interested. This solution, largely facilitated by current technologies, has already been launched in Canada, via Uber Hop, and could be implemented in France to good effect. The development of these solutions should associate the various parties involved: local governments, public transport companies, private mobility companies, etc. The role of the public authorities www.institutmontaigne.org

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13 could be both financial - invitation to tender, innovation competition, etc. - and regulatory - introducing some flexibility into the standards governing passenger transport. These services must be financially affordable for users to offer better mobility to as many people as possible. Proposal no. 2: Adopt common normative principles for the regulation of traffic at a European level, so as to reduce both congestion and pollution. While it is important to develop new means of transport in less well serviced areas, it is natural to seek to regulate traffic in areas sufferin g from congestion, usually located in city centres. However, to facilitate the implementation of such schemes without obstructing mobility, it is essential to homogenize norms governing mobility from one city to another and from one country to another. Traffic regulation will be increasingly reliant on “intelligent" systems: dynamic micro-tolls requiring the installation of a specific device inside cars, connected information signs, etc. Harmonizing regula tions would ensure the interoperability and compatibility of these schemes throughout the European Union (e.g.: an automatic toll device recognised in all cities and on all roads applying a toll). This would also be beneficial to citizens, whose travels around the cities of Europe would be facilitated, as well as to industrial firms, opening up a vast market to which adapted technological solutions could be proposed at reasonable costs. Similarly, a harmonised environmental categorisation of vehicles could be set up as a basis for traffic restriction measures decided locally (e.g. an interoperable

European sticker).

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The legal and regulatory framework, once harmonised, would serve as a toolbox, enabling local and national authorities to adapt regu lations to the particularities of their territories. Simple recommenda- tions (presentation of a range of incentive measures, notably in relation to urban tolls) could be combined with elements that would ultimately become mandatory (e.g. the harmonised environmental certificate, which could be part of a directive). Proposal no. 3: Develop the collection and collective use of data from on-board computers to maximise joint benefits: at a European level, this will involve defining the concept of mobility data of common interest and the rules of accessing, sharing and exploiting such data to stimulate innovation while guaranteeing security and confidentiality. The harmonisation of norms must also include the numeric aspects of mobility. The use of driving data represents a hoard of new services and is therefore a leverage of competitiveness for the French industry. However, it also represents a potential risk requiring reassuring and protecting the population. The definition of data access rules must be combined with the development of dynamic traffic regulation mechanisms (micro-tolls, reserved lanes), whose operation depend upon the collection of data related to cars and their usage (number of occupants, vehicle type, etc.). The notion of “data of general interest" could also be taken into account: information collected by a vehicle - an accident detected by on-board cameras, for example - could be useful to other vehicles, for example to warn drivers approaching an accident zone. www.institutmontaigne.org

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Proposal no. 4: Accelerate the generalisation of the most effec tive new safety systems (emergency braking and drowsiness detection systems in particular), as soon as their efficiency has been demonstrated by independent studies, to enable exploita tion of the full potential improvement in road safety offered by such systems. Personal safety could be considerably improved by adopting major innovations that are currently under-exploited. Technologies such as emergency braking or attention systems are successfully used on certain premium vehicles, but are slow to be installed on bottom- range cars: many lives could be saved if the distribution of such technologies was accelerated. Once their efficiency has been proved by independent studies, a possible approach could be to make these systems mandatory on new vehicles, or even on all vehicles if it is possible to adapt them to existing models. This could be the case of drowsiness detection systems, notably. It would also be possible to adopt an incentive scheme for users, based on financial benefits for example, such as modulating the price of urban tolls for cars equipped with certain safety features.quotesdbs_dbs27.pdfusesText_33

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