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DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES

POLICY DEPARTMENT C: CITIZENS' RIGHTS AND

CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS

CIVIL LIBERTIES, JUSTICE AND HOME AFFAIRS

Counter-Terrorism

Relevance, Coherence and Effectiveness

STUDY

Abstract

Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the LIBE Committee, identifies (counter-) terrorism trends, threats and policies in the EU, focussing particularly on seven themes, including database access and interoperability, measures on border security, criminal justice and prevention of radicalisation. It also analyses the coherence and effectiveness of the counter-terrorism policy (architecture), and issues of cooperation, oversight and implementation, in particular of seven focus Member States: Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Spain. Moreover, this study addresses future scenarios and formulates concrete policy options and recommendations.

PE 583.124 EN

ABOUT THE PUBLICATION

This research paper was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and was commissioned, overseen and published by the Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs. Policy departments provide independent expertise, both in-house and externally, to support European Parliament committees and other parliamentary bodies in shaping legislation and exercising democratic scrutiny over EU external and internal policies. To contact the Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs or to subscribe to its newsletter please write to: poldepc-citizens@ep.europa.eu

Research Administrator Responsible

Kristiina MILT

Policy Department C: Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs

European Parliament

B-1047 Brussels

E-mail: poldepc-citizens@ep.europa.eu

AUTHORS

Wim WENSINK, PwC

Bas WARMENHOVEN, PwC

Roos HAASNOOT, PwC

Rob WESSELINK, PwC

Dr Bibi VAN GINKEL, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Stef WITTENDORP, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Dr Christophe PAULUSSEN, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Dr Wybe DOUMA, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Dr Bérénice BOUTIN, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Onur GÜVEN, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague Thomas RIJKEN, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) ± The Hague With research assistance from: Olivier VAN GEEL, Max GEELEN, Geneviève GIRARD, Stefan HARRIGAN, Lenneke HUISMAN, Sheila JACOBS and Caroline TOUSSAINT.

LINGUISTIC VERSION

Original: EN

Manuscript completed in January 2017

© European Union, 2017

This document is available on the internet at:

DISCLAIMER

The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 6

LIST OF TABLES 12

LIST OF FIGURES 12

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14

1. INTRODUCTION 21

1.1. Objectives and research questions 22

1.2. Outline of the report 23

2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY 25

2.1. Theoretical framework for the assessment of the effectiveness of the EU

policy architecture on counter-terrorism 25

2.2. Scope of the study 28

2.2.1. Policy measures 28

2.2.2. Focus on binding measures 28

3. THE EU AND COUNTER-TERRORISM: THREATS, TRENDS AND ITS

IMPACT ON POLICY DEVELOPMENT 30

3.1. The EU and counter-terrorism: a historical perspective on threat

perceptions 30

3.1.1. 9/11: terrorism as an external threat 32

3.1.2. Madrid and London: the threat of home-grown terrorism and terrorism

as an internal threat 33

3.1.3. The Syrian civil war and ISIS, the foreign (terrorist) fighters

phenomenon, and the attacks on Charlie Hebdo, the Bataclan and

Brussel/Zaventem 34

3.1.4. The Nice and Berlin attacks and a series of small-scale attacks:

rise of the lone actors and the weaponisation of ordinary life 36

3.2. Long-term trends and future developments 39

4. MAPPING OUT THE EU COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY ARCHITECTURE

43

4.1. Counter-terrorism strategy as presented in general communications of the

EU 44

4.1.1. Predecessors 44

4.1.2. The 2005 Counter-Terrorism Strategy 45

4.1.3. Overarching and sub-strategies 46

4.2. Actors and mandates 48

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 4

4.3. Exploring the policy developments on seven themes 54

4.3.1. Fora, measures and tools for operational cooperation and intelligence/law

enforcement and judicial information exchange 54

4.3.2. Data collection and database access and interoperability 56

4.3.3. Measures to enhance external border security 56

4.3.4. Combating terrorist financing 58

4.3.5. Firearms and explosive weapons 59

4.3.6. Criminal justice measures 62

4.3.7. Prevention of radicalisation 63

5. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ON RELEVANCE, POLICY COHERENCE AND

EFFECTIVENESS 65

5.1. Institutionalising long-term future foresight or connecting threat

assessment to policy design 68

5.2. EU counter-terrorism and differentiated Member State priorities 70

5.3. Fast versus slow track policy 71

5.4. Objectives and assumptions 73

5.5. Effectiveness and oversight 74

5.6. Information exchange (systems and people) 76

6. CONCLUDING REMARKS, GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND POLICY

OPTIONS 79

6.1. Improving the policy cycle and effectiveness of EU counter-terrorism

policies: recommendations and policy options 80

6.2. Improving legitimacy, coherence and effectiveness on specific policy

themes: recommendations and policy options 82

6.2.1. Recommendations concerning operational cooperation and

intelligence/law enforcement and judicial information exchange 82

6.2.2. Recommendations on data collection and database access and

interoperability 82

6.2.3. Recommendations on policies on countering the financing of terrorism 82

6.2.4. Recommendations on policies regarding firearms and explosive

weapons 83

6.2.5. Recommendation on criminal justice measures 83

6.2.6. Recommendations on policies concerning prevention against

radicalisation 84

7. REFERENCES 85

7.1. Relevant literature and reports 85

7.2. EU Policy documents, and other international agreements and policy

documents 90

7.3. Existing evaluations 109

5

ANNEX I: FACTSHEETS BY THEME 112

THEME A: FORA, MEASURES AND TOOLS FOR OPERATIONAL COOPERATION AND INTELLIGENCE/LAW ENFORCEMENT AND JUDICIAL INFORMATIONEXCHANGE 112 THEME B: DATA COLLECTION AND DATABASE ACCESS AND INTEROPERABILITY 119 THEME C: MEASURES TO ENHANCE EXTERNAL BORDER SECURITY 128

THEME D: COMBATING TERRORIST FINANCING 143

THEME E: FIREARMS AND EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS 152

THEME F: CRIMINAL JUSTICE MEASURES 161

THEME G: PREVENTION AGAINST RADICALISATION 168

ANNEX II: MAPPING OF MEASURES 175

ANNEX III: METHODOLOGY 191

Phasing of the study and practical approach 191

Selection of Member States 191

Methodology for the mapping of measures 195

ANNEX IV: INTERVIEWS AND POLICY LAB WORKSHOP 197

Experts interviewed for this report 197

Policy Lab workshop 199

Overall summary of points discussed during the round table discussion with regards to the EU counter-terrorism policy architecture 200

ANNEX V: DATA FOR GRAPHS 212

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 6

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AFSJ Area of Freedom, Security and Justice

AIVD Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst, General Intelligence and Security Service (of the Netherlands)

AML(D) Anti-Money Laundering (Directive)

API Advanced Passenger Information

AVE Against Violent Extremism

AWF Analytical Working File

C4C Counter-Narration for Counter-Terrorism

CATS Clearance Audit Trail System

CATS Coordinating Committee in the area of police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters CENAA Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs

CFR Charter of Fundamental Rights

CFR-CDR EU Network of Experts on Fundamental Rights

CFT Countering the Financing of Terrorism

CJEU Court of Justice of the European Union

CNN Central News Network

COCOP The Working Party on the Application of Specific Measures to

Combat Terrorism

COCORA Community Counteracting Radicalisation

CoE Centre of Excellence

CoE Council of Europe

COPPRA Community Policing and the Prevention of Radicalisation 7 COSI Standing Committee on Operational Cooperation on Internal

Security

COTER The Working Party on Terrorism (International Aspects) CSFP/CSDP Common Security and Foreign Policy / Common Security and

Defence Policy

CTC UN Counter-Terrorism Committee

CTG Counter Terrorism Group

CVATF Comisión de Vigilancia de Actividades de la Financiación del Terrorismo (Commission for Terrorist Financing, Spain)

CVE Countering Violent Extremism

DG Directorate General

DNB De Nederlandsche Bank, the Dutch Central Bank

EAS Europol Analysis System

EAW European Arrest Warrant

EBCG European Border and Coast Guard

EBF External Borders Fund

EC European Commission

EC European Community

EC European Council

ECRIS European Criminal Records Information System

ECTC European Counter Terrorism Centre

EEAS European External Action Centre

EES EU Entry-Exit System

EFP European Firearms Pass

EIS Europol Information System

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 8

EIXM European Information Exchange Model

EP European Parliament

EPPO European Public Prosecutor's Office

ESTA European System for Travel Authorisation

ETIAS EU Travel Information and Authorisation System

EU European Union

EU INTCEN European Union Intelligence and Situation Centre

EURODAC European Dactyloscopy

EUROPOL European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation

EUROSUR European Border Surveillance System

FATF Fight Against Terrorism Financing

FD Framework Decision

FF Foreign (terrorist) fighter(s)

FIU Financial Intelligence Unit

FPT Focal Points Travellers

GCC Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

GCERF Global Community Engagement Resilience Fund

GCTF Global Counter-Terrorism Forum

GTD Global Terrorism Database

HLEG High Level Expert Group on Information Systems and

Interoperability

ICCT International Centre for Counter-Terrorism ± The Hague

ICSP Instrument to Stability and Peace

IMF International Monetary Fund

9

IMS Council Information Management Strategy

INSPEC2T Inspiring Citizen's Participation for enhanced Community Action

IntCen EU Intelligence and Situation Centre

INTERPOL International Criminal Police Organisation

IPCR Integrated Political Crisis Response

IRU EU Internet Referral Unit

ISDEP Improving Security By Democratic Participation

ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria

ISS Internal Security Strategy

JHA Justice and Home Affairs

JIT Joint Investigation Team(s)

LIBE Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs Committee

MENA Middle East and North Africa

MS Member State(s) (of the EU)

MSECU Market and Supervision of Explosives for Civil Uses

NCB National Central Bureau

NCTV Nationaal Coordinator Terrorismebestrijding en Veiligheid (Netherlands National Coordinator for Security and

Counterterrorism)

OJ Official Journal of the European Union

OLAF Office de Lutte Anti-Fraude (European Anti-Fraud Office) OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe

P2P Peer-to-Peer

PCTF Police Chiefs Task Force

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 10

PNR Passenger Name Records

PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers

PWGT Police Working Group on Terrorism

R&R Action

Plan EU Action Plan on Combatting Radicalisation and Recruitment to

Terrorism

RABIT Rapid Border Intervention Teams

RAN Radical Awareness network

ReCoRa Recognising and Responding to Radicalism

RELEX Working Party of Foreign Relations Counsellors

REP Regulation on Explosive Precursors

RFF Returning foreign (terrorist) fighters

RFF Returning Foreign (terrorist) Fighters

SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons

SEESAC South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of

Small Arms and Light Weapons

SIENA Secure Information Exchange Network Application

SIS (II) Schengen Information System (II)

SLTD Stolen and Lost Travel Documents

SMART Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound SMN Partnership of Moroccan Communities in the Netherlands SRIEU Special Representative of INTERPOL to the European Union SSCAT Syria Strategic Communications Advisory Team STRIVE Strengthening Resilience to Violence and Extremism

TCM Terrorism Convictions Monitor

TE-SAT Europol's annual EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 11

TEU Treaty on European Union

TFEU Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union

TFTP Terrorist Finance Tracking Programme

TFTS Terrorist Finance Tracking System

ToR Terms of Reference

TracFin Traitement du renseignement et action contre les circuits financiers clandestins (French FUI)

UK United Kingdom

UN United Nations

UNSC United Nations Security Council

US United States

VE-TCN Visa-Exempted Third Country National

VIS Visa Information System

WomEx Women / girls in violent extremism

WTC World Trade Centre

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 12

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1

Overview of implementation of Council Directive 2004/82/ EC on the obligation of carriers to communicate passenger data in seven focus Member States ........ 140

Table 2

Overview of implementation of legislation to fight terrorism financing in seven

focus Member States ................................................................................. 148

Table 3

National implementation of the Firearms Directive ......................................... 157

Table 4

Overview of implementation of existing and envisaged criminal justice

measures in seven focus MS ....................................................................... 164

Table 5

Overview of prevention programmes for each of the seven Member States ....... 174

Table 6

Overview of measures that have been referred to in the context of counter-

terrorism .................................................................................................. 175

Table 7

Experts interviewed for this study ............................................................... 198

Table 8

Data used for compiling graphs ................................................................... 212

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1

The EU Policy Cycle for counter-terrorism policy development ........................... 25

Figure 2

Strategies, action plans, measures etc. adopted per year, 1996-2017 ................ 31

Figure 3

Number of deaths by terrorism in EU, 2001-2015 ............................................ 32

Figure 4

Figure 5

Lone wolf attacks in Europe, 2004-2015 ......................................................... 37 13

Figure 6

Average number of deaths per terrorist attack worldwide, lone wolves vs.

multiple perpetrators, 2004-2015 .................................................................. 38

Figure 7

Number of terrorist attacks in EU, 2001-2016 ................................................. 39

Figure 8

Terrorist targets in the EU, 2004-2015 ........................................................... 40

Figure 9

Type of terrorist attacks, 2004-2016 .............................................................. 41

Figure 10

Type of weapons used in terrorist attacks, 2004-2016 ..................................... 42

Figure 11

Selected actors in EU counter-terrorism policy ................................................ 53

Figure 12

Timeline of terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism strategies and measures,

2000-2016 ................................................................................................. 67

Figure 13

Monitoring implementation and evaluations of policies compared to strategies

and measures, 2001-2016 ............................................................................ 75

Figure 14

Selected Members States ........................................................................... 193

Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs 14

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background and aim

The series of recent terrorist attacks, as well as the various foiled and failed terrorist plots on European soil, have more than ever reinforced the popular awareness of the vulnerabilities that go hand-in-hand with the open democracies in the European Union (EU). The fact that these attacks followed each other with short intervals, but mostly due to the fact that they often did not fit the profile and modus operandi of previous attacks, have significantly contributed to the difficulty for security agencies to signal the threats as they are materialising. The modi operandi used showed a diversity of targets chosen, were committed by a variety of actors including foreign fighter returnees, home-grown jihadist extremists, and lone actors, and were executed with a variety of weapons or explosives. Furthermore, another complicating factor is the trend towards the weaponisation ofquotesdbs_dbs28.pdfusesText_34

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