[PDF] The 2017-19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia) : intense





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The 2017-19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia) : intense www.nature.com/scientificreports D. K. s L. s ;withaVolcanicExplosivity th

Century.?ird,lackofinstrumental

eruption.

center for Volcanology and Geological Hazards Mitigation, Geological Agency, Ministry of energy and Mineral

R esources, Bandung, i nd onesia. U.S. Geological Survey, Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, Vancouver, WA,

USA. ͹

institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (iPGP), Paris, france. institut des Sciences de la terre (iSterre/iRD),

Grenoble,

f ran ce. and requests for materials should be addressed to D.K.S. (email: devy.syahbana@gmail.com)Received: 11 January 2019 A ccepted: 29 May 2019 P ublished: xx xx xxxx sionsaround19February 1 k mdownthenorth?ank.Pyroclastic 1,2 .On17March1963,amonth ple 1,2 (Fig. 1A).OtherdeadlyparoxysmsoccurredagaininMay,ejectingballisticsto8km 3 andproducingaddi k m 3 2 ma?cmagma 4 lavaissuedfromaconeinthenearbyBaturCaldera(Fig. 1),only18 k mNWofMountAgung'ssummit 5 .Batur 6 2-3 7 .Satelliteinterferometry 8 ,whichcatalyzedourinstallation eruptions. the CVGHMnetworkatMountAgung,andseismicenergywasdominatedbyculturalnoisefromthesouth thesouth andsouthwest?anksofMountAgung~4and5 k theBaturCaldera(Fig. 1A).?roughoutthecrisis,theprimarydatastreamsusedtomonitorunrestwerereal- seismicityfromalldatasources. ofearthquakesperday(Fig. 2).Feltreportsandseismic-wave-arrivaltimesonlocalstationssuggestedthatthe closertoMountAgung(Fig. 3).Seismicitypeakedon22Septemberwith800earthquakesofmagnitude1 recordedbytheCVGHMseismicnetwork(Fig. 2B).Earthquakemagnitudesalsoincreased,withaM4.2(BMKG) VTeventratesdecreasedsigni?cantlyon20October(Fig. 2B)andcontinuedtodecreasethroughearly andlocationsacrossthenetwork(Fig. 1A). daywithlargeM3 eruptionsinlateNovember(Fig. 3).On8November,2017~22:00UTC,BMKGrecordedaM4.9andaseries ofa?ershockslocated~10 k mNEofMountAgung(Fig. 3).Shortlya?erwards,small,low-frequency(LF)and s econd duration;broadband1-10 H 5 k seismically. episodeslasting30-90 m

Figure 1

features(redtriangles),locationsoftheobservatories(pos,greensquares),andrelevanttowns(blue crosses) mD

EM.?e1963lava?ow,pyroclasticdensity

current,andlahardepositsaremodi?edfrom 2 B) 39
are exclusionzones(inblue)arethesame.

Figure 2

A )Alertlevelchanges;( B

4earthquake

C )GNSSdisplacementsandbaselinelength betweenYHKRandREND (alsoknownasRNDG)stations;( D )SO 2 emissionratesfromground-basedmobile

DOAS;(E)CO

2 andSO 2 F CO 2 /SO 2 ratios(molar)fromMulti-GAS;( G )BrO/SO 2 ratiofrommobileDOAS;( H )AdvancedSpaceborne unrestmaximumradiance(8.7 W/m 2 m/sr)plottedasdashedline(seealsoSupplementalFiguresFig. S1);and I k msummit).Runningacrosstheentiregraphare andintermittentashpu?ng(purple). explosiveactivitycontinuedthroughthepresent(June 2019). (Fig. 1A)thatwasinstalledin2012.By2014,allofthesiteshadceasedtransmittingdata,buttheywererevived

115.3 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.7

8.58.48.38.28.1

a) 2017/01/15≥ 2017/09/21 TMKS PSAG

115.3 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.7

b) 2017/09/21≥2017/11/21

115.3 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.7

c) 2017/11/21≥2018/07/01

201001020

Displacement (mm)

Jan Ma

rMay Jul Sep NovJan MarMay d)REND

0400800120016002000

RSAM

Jan Ma

rMay Jul Sep NovJan MarMay

20172018

e)TMKS

012345

RSAMRatio

25RSep 02ROct 09ROct 16ROct 23ROct 30ROct 06RNov 13RNov 20RNov 27RNov

f)PSAG/TMKS

0.5-3Hz6-24Hz

REND

20 cm20 cm

1stDeepIntrusion

2ndDeepIntrusion

Deflationof

DeepSource

Figure 3

.Reg ionalBMKGEarthquakelocationsfor(A) 2017/01/15-2017/09/21,(B) 2017/09/21-

2017/11/21,and(

C ) 2017/11/21-2018/07/01.Earthquakecirclesizeisscaledbymagnitude(rangeM2.2 appearance.M4 A B

Nocleardeformationsourcewasseenin(

C D )DetailedGPStime-seriesand( E )RSAMdata(1 h our)for F )Frequency?lteredRSAM(12 h our)ratiosbetweenseismic k m,respectively)totheAgungsummit,which H z(black)and6-24 H z(gray)areshownin H E F )representtimes ofM4 earthquakesshownin( B ).Redlinesin( D F F )showsthetimingofalarge changesinanalogtelemetry.SeetextandFig. 1forotherdetails. stationREND(Figs 2Cand3Dlocated~12kmsouth-southwestofthevolcano'ssummit.Priortotheonsetof Agung(Fig. 3A),withthelaterin?ationaryepochbeingthelargerofthetwo(forinstance,southwardmotionof

RENDwas~5

mm inFebruary-Marchand~20 mm 9 at10-20 k 10 sites(Fig. 3B).StationREND,forexample,beganmovingnorthtowardsthevolcano'ssummit.InSARresults k mdepthbetweenAgungandBatur 10 whileGNSSstations - particularlyREND - areconsistentwithacombinationofdikeintrusiontothenorth frequencyinlate-JunetoJuly2018. butaredominatedbyremobilizededi?celithicmaterial(Fig. 4D,E).Collectedbulkashsampleswereanalyzed increasefrom55to59wt.%SiO 2

Figure 4

.Im agesfromtheNovembervolcaniceruptions.(A)LookingnortheastfromBesakihTempleduringeruptionon26November2017.PhotobyJohannesP.Christo.(B)VieweasttowardMt.Agungon27November 2017fromCulikmarketplace.Darkash-richandwhitesteam-richplumesemergesimultaneously.PhotobyFirdiaLisnawati.(C)Juvenilescoriafragmenteruptedon21November 2017.(D,E)Lithicfragmentseruptedon21Novemberand25November,respectively.(F)Laharon28November2017atTukadYehSah river.PhotobyJohannesP.Christo.

observedwithinthiscrateron25Novemberandby27Novemberhadcoveredthecrater?oor(Fig. 5).Whenlava amaximumthicknessofabout121 m andavolumeofabout24millionm 3 .Atthispoint,thelavahadreached additional~10 mt oitsthickness. uresulfurdioxide(SO 2 11 campaigns 2 withaminiaturizedmulti-GAS 12 ,13 in situmeasurementsof plumeH 2

Ovapor,CO

2 ,SO 2 ,andH 2 ofthesummitandclimbedto~3,300 mf orsampling(Fig. 6).?e?rstsuccessfulmeasurementswereobtained 2 anomaly(CO 2 36
2 wasbelow thesensordetectionlimit(~0.05ppmv;Fig. 2E).Whilenopriorbaselinegasmeasurementswereavailablefor 2 anomaliesofthismagnitudeareuncommon

12,14-17

and h ourslater,the?rstphreatomag SO 2 emissionrateof660t/d(Fig. 2D).?reedi?erentdrone?ightson23and24NovemberfoundlargeCO 2 anomalies( CO 2

49-98pp mv),verylowSO

2 mixingratios(SO 2,MAX

0.55pp mvon23November;0.05ppmv

on24November),andtraceH 2 S(

Figure 5

.Im agescapturedbydrone?ightsoverMt.Agungcrateron20October2017and16December2017.(A)Recti?edphotomontageofpre-eruptionconditionswithsteamingintheeasternwall.(B)Hillshadedigitalelevationmodelwithfalsecolorsshowingrelativeelevation(yellowtored).(C)Post-eruptionphotomontagethatshowsthelava?ow.(D)Hillshadedigitalelevationmodelasin(B),wherethelava?owcontainsconcentricpressureridgescreatedduringoutward?owfromthecentralvent.Cracksarevisiblepropagatingfromthecenterventregion.

veryCO 2 -richandS-poor,andaveragemolarCO 2 /SO 2 Novemberpriortothestartofthemainmagmaticexplosivephaseat9:20UTCon25November(Fig. 2F). ?ehighestSO 2 2

140-1500t/d;monthly

median

390t/d

,n 14)a withclearH 2 O,CO 2 ,andSO 2 peaks(H 2 O/CO 2 21,CO
2 /SO 2

3.2;SO

2,MAX

26.1pp mv).?eDOASmeas-

2

3E-5).Subsequent

datashowedanincreasingtrenduptoBrO/SO 2

1.8an d1.9E-4detectedon17and18December,respectively

(Fig. 2G).?eincreasingBrO/SO 2 toBrO 18 2 emissionsweredecreasing (medianJanuarySO 2

230t/d ,n12;February220t/d,n4).SO

2 emissionsbrie?yjumpedtomorethan

200t/d)bythebeginningofAugust 2018.

date.

14 September 2017-- Upgrade to Level 2:

Baturseismicnetworkinmid-May2017.Figure 2presentsatimelineofobservationalandgeophysicalmeas- urementsfromJuly2017toAugust2018.Bymid-July2017 - aroundthetimethatasmallthermalanomalywas detected(Fig. 2H,SupplementalFiguresFig. S1) - RSAMvaluesatAgunghaddeviatedfrombaselinelevels (Fig. 2B),andbymid-August,VTearthquakeswereoccurringdaily,increasingsigni?cantlyinSeptember.In wellasbyInSAR 10 seismicity,promptedanalertlevelchangetoWaspada(Level2)on14September(Table 1,Figs. 1Band2A).

18 September 2017-- Upgrade to Level 3

toSiaga(Level3)on18September.

22 September 2017-- Upgrade to Level 4

on22September(Figs 2Band3),promptinganotheralertlevelchange.Inretrospect,weknowtherewasalsoa changeintherelativemotionofGNSS-stations(Figs 2Cand3).GNSSstationssouthofthevolcanoregistered (1) launch @ 530 m elevation (3) transit ~11 km @ 3300 m altitude (2) climb (5) return

Denpasar

Mount Agung

(3031 m) (4) plume measurement

020406080

400500600700800

8:50 :158:50:25 8:50:35

Localtime(UTC+8)

SO 2 ppmv H 2

O/25,CO

2 ppmv H 2

O/25CO2SO2

Figure6

.Per spectivedigitalelevationmodel(fromGoogleEarth)thatdisplaysdrone?ightpathon19 2

O/25andCO

2 signalsonthe le?ordinate,andSO 2

December2016.

plumerosefromthenortheastcrater?oor~1500 ma detectedseismically(Fig. 3F).?iswasthetallestplumeobservedbeforetheeruption.Unauthorizedclimbers 2 k mdistance(Fig. 2E).

29 October 2017-- Downgrade to Level 3:

November,RSAMvaluesbegantoincreaseslowly(Figs 2Band3).On8November,anM4.9earthquakewas k mfromthevolcano.?is wasthelargestrecordedVTeventduringthecrisisperiod(Figs 2Band3).

26 November 2017-- Upgrade to Level 4:

detectedaCO 2 -richplumeearlyon21November(Fig. 2E,F).?e2017Agungeruptionbeganwithasmall ma bovethesummit(Figs. 2I and4).AmoderateamountofSO 2 magmadegassing(Fig. 2D).Multi-GASdroneflightsdetectedelevatedlevelsofCO 2 on23-24November (Fig. 2F).Larger,continuousexplosionsbeganon25Novemberat9:20UTCandsatelliteobservationsdetected k mabovethesummit(~9 k masl)by26 November(Fig. 2I)andtraveledESEresultinginclosureofthePrayaairportinLombok(~95 k mSEofAgung crater)on26-27,30Novemberand1December.On26November23:00 UTC,thealertlevelwasraisedtoAwas k mSWofAgungcrater)during26-29November.

HighSO

2 Lightning,loudrumblings,andlaharswereproduced(Fig. 4F)asaresultofrainfallmobilizingashdeposits fromlateNovember.Twoplumeswereemittedon26-27November(Fig. 4B),withadark,ash-richpartema- November,lavacoveredthecrater?oor(Fig. 5C,D)andbegantorapidly?llthesummitcrater,untilslowingon DateAlert LevelObservations leading to alert level changeObservations leading to retaining alert levelExclusion zone

Outcomes

9/14/2017Waspada(2)

thermalanomalies fumarolicactivity increaseinVTseismicity3km

9/18/2017Siaga(3)

increaseinfumarolicactivity increaseinfeltearthquakefreq.andM increaseinVTseismicity6/7.5km

9/22/2017Awas(4)

increaseinfumarolicactivity increaseinthermalanomalysz. peakinseismicity increaseinfeltseismicity eventtreeon9/20/2017 modelingshowedthatlargePDCscould travel*10 kmin3 min utes;andthata

VEI3eruptioncouldresultin1.6

mo fash within15 km highdisasterpotential;manylocalpeople hadnomemoryof1963eruption

VTsclosertothesummit

appearanceofLFs increasingfeltseismicity (M4.3on9/27/2017) eventtreeson9/23,10/02and

10/17/20179/12km

~140kpeopleevacuated(inc.~70k self-evacuatedfromoutsidethe exclusionzone) protectiveeyewearandmasks recommended communicationnetwork establishedthroughWhatsApp groupsandradio fundingmadeavailablefor evacuationexpenses

10/29/2017Siaga(3)

decrease,followedbywaxingandwaning seismicity lackoffurtherlg.changesindeformationquotesdbs_dbs30.pdfusesText_36
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