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The Global Risks

Report 2020

Insight Report

15th Edition

In partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group

Source:

World Economic Forum 2007-2020,

Global Risks Reports

Note:

Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as denitions and the set of global risks have evolved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and unemployment entered the set of global risks in 2012.

Some global risks have been reclassied: water crises and income disparity were recategorized as societal risks in the 2015 and 2014

Global Risks Reports

, respectively.

Figure I:

The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2020

1s t 2n d 3r d 4t h 5t h1st 2n d 3r d 4t h 5t hTop 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood

Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact

E co no mic

Environmental

Geopolitical

Societal

T echnological

Weapons of

mass destruction

Weapons of

mass destructionAsset price collapse

Fiscal crisesFinancial failureFinancial failure

Climate action

failure

Deglobalization

(developed)Climate change Water crises Water crises

Extreme

weather Extreme weather Oil price spikesGeopolitical conflict Food crises

Water crises

Water crises Chronic disease

Asset price

collapse

Natural

disasters

Fiscal crises

Asset price

collapse

Deglobalization

(developed)

Oil and gas

price spike

Chronic

diseases

Fiscal crises

Blow up in

asset prices

Deglobalization

(developed)

China hard

landing

Oil price shock

Pandemics

Blow up in

asset prices

Deglobalization

Interstate

and civil wars

Pandemics

Oil price shockEnergy

price volatility Energyprice volatility Weapons of massdestruction FiscalimbalancesFiscal crises

Climate action

failure

Infrastructure

breakdownWater crises

Unemployment Water crises

Infectious

diseases

Weapons of

mass destruction

Interstate

conflictWeapons of mass destruction

Energy price

shockWater crises

Involuntary

migrationWeapons of mass destruction

Extreme

weather

Water crises

Natural

disastersWeapons of mass destruction

Extreme

weather

Water crises

Natural

disasters

Fiscal

imbalances

Climate action

failure

Climate action

failureClimate action failure

Climate action

failure

Climate action

failure

Extreme

weather

Extreme

weatherAsset price collapseStorms and cyclones Income disparity Income disparity

China economic

slowdown

Flooding

Fiscal

imbalancesFiscal imbalances

Natural

disastersNatural disastersBiodiversity lossBiodiversity lossHuman-made environmental disastersChronic disease

CorruptionGreenhouse gas emissions

Data fraud

or theft Fiscal crisesBiodiversity lossCyberattacksWater crises CyberattacksGlobal governancegaps Climate change Water crisesPopulation ageingIncome disparity

Unemployment

Climate action

failure

Cyberattacks Extreme

weatherInterstate conflict

Failure of

national governance

State collapse

or crisis

UnemploymentExtreme

weatherInvoluntary migration

Interstate

conflict

Natural

catastrophes Extreme weather

Extreme

weather

Natural

disasters

Terrorist

attacks

Data fraud

or theftInvoluntary migration

Extreme

weather

Cyberattacks

Data fraud

or theftNatural disasters

Greenhouse gas

emissions

Climate action

failure

Climate action

failureClimate action failureClimate action failure

Infrastructure

breakdownOil price shockChina hard landingBlow up in asset pricesChronic diseases

Climate action

failure

Blow up in

asset pricesFailed and failing statesOil price shockChronic diseasesMiddle East instability

Asset price

collapseChronic diseasesGlobal governance gapsDeglobalization (emerging)China economic slowdown

Figure II: The Global Risks Landscape 2020

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks

Perception Survey 2019-2020.

Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of

1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They

also assessed the impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a

catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for

the full name and description. Figure III: The Global Shapers Risk Landscape 2020 Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2019-2020.

The Global Shapers Community is the World

Economic Forum"s network of young people

driving dialogue, action and change. Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the Global Shapers as to the multistakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks

Perception Survey and Methodology).

We received 236 responses for Part 1 “The World in 2020" and 190 for Part 2 “Assessment of Global Risks". The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections" were not used. Figure IV: The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2020

Note: Survey respondents were asked to select up to six pairs of global risks they believe to be most

interconnected. See Appendix B of the full report for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the

global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.

Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks

Perception Survey 2019-2020.

The Global Risks

Report 2020

15th Edition

Strategic Partners

Marsh & McLennan

Zurich Insurance Group

Academic Advisers

National University of Singapore

Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford

Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania

Contents

Preface

By Børge Brende 4

Executive

Summary 6

CHAPTER 1

Global Risks 2020:

An Unsettled World 8

CHAPTER 2

The Fraying

Fundamentals

Risks to Economic Stability

and Social Cohesion 18

CHAPTER 3

A Decade Left

Confronting Runaway

Climate Threat

In collaboration with the Platform

for Global Public Goods 28

CHAPTER 4

Save the Axolotl

Dangers of Accelerated

Biodiversity Loss

In collaboration with the Platform

for Global Public Goods 44

CHAPTER 5

Wild Wide Web

Consequences of

Digital Fragmentation

In collaboration with the Platform

for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Platform for Cybersecurity and Digital Trust 60

CHAPTER 6

False Positive

Health Systems under

New Pressures

In collaboration with the Platform

on Health and Healthcare 72

Appendices

Appendix A: Descriptions of

Global Risks 2020

Appendix B: Global Risks Perception

Survey and Methodology 84

Acknowledgements 92

4Preface

The 15

th edition of the World Economic

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