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MAIN REPORT

RÉPUBLIQUE DE

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

Sustaining High, Inclusive, and

Resilient Growth Post COVID19

A World Bank Group Input to the 2030 Development Strategy

République de Côte d"ivoire 20212030

Sustaining High, Inclusive, and

Resilient Growth Post COVID19

A World Bank Group Input to the

2030 Development Strategy

Main Report

CONTENTS

Task team composition

x

Abbreviations

xi

At a glance

xiv Building on recent strong growth and poverty reduction and closing remaining gaps ...............................xv

Challenges to continuing growth

...........................xv COVID-19 shocks .......................................xvi Resuming dynamic growth and social development ..........xvii The three I's and three T's for accelerating shared growth .....xvii

Chapter 1.

Sustain inclusive growth

2 1 .1?Introduction ..........................................3 1

2?Côte d'Ivoire's economy today ..........................3

1.2.1 High but slowing economic growth ...................3 1.2.2 Solid macroeconomic stability ......................5 1.2.3 Improving social indicators ........................6 1.2.4 Challenges ahead ...............................6 1

3?Economic impact of COVID-19 ..........................8

1.3.1 Channels of transmission and their economic impact. . . .10 1.3.2 Macroeconomic impact ...........................11 1.3.3 Sectoral impact ..................................11 1.3.4 Incomes impact .................................11 1

4?Long-term growth of the economy ......................12

1.4.1 No-COVID-19 reference path .......................14 1.4.2 High-growth scenario .............................15 1.4.3 Requirements of high-growth scenario ...............15 1.4.4 Implications for poverty reduction ...................18 1.4.5 Low-growth scenario .............................18 1.4.6 COVID-19 implications for long-term growth ..........19 1

5?Conclusions and recommendations

.....................21

Annex 1

A?Assumptions of the growth analysis

24
For long-term growth scenarios with the CGE model .......24 For the short-term analysis of the eects of COVID-19 ......24 Notes

References

Chapter 2.

Realize human potential

28
2 .1?Introduction .........................................29 2.2.1

Child survival: Will children born today survive

toschoolage? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.2.2 Healthy start: Will children stay healthy as they grow? ...33 2.2.3

Schooling: How much schooling will children

complete? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 2.2.4 Will children learn the basics while in school? .......36 2.2.5 A healthy life: Will youth experience a lifetime of goodhealth? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2

3?Drivers of human capital formation in Côte d'Ivoire

........41 2.3.1

Demography—the backdrop to human capital

formation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 2.3.2 The health system ...............................41 2.3.3

Education sector—access soars but learning

is in crisis 47
2.3.4 Enabling environment ............................51 2

4?Addressing systemic weaknesses ......................53

Notes .55 References .............................................56

Chapter 3.

Leverage digital technology

58
3 .1?Introduction .........................................59 3

2?Digital infrastructure .................................60

3.2.1 Current state of digital infrastructure ................61 3

3?Digital skills and literacy ..............................67

3.3.1 Current state of digital skills .......................67 3.3.2

Recommendations

..............................68 3

4?Entrepreneurship

.68 3.4.1

Background

....................................68 3.4.2 The digital entrepreneurship ecosystem ............68 3.4.3

Recommendations

...............................71 3

5?Digital financial services ..............................73

3.5.1

The current state of digital nancial services in

Côted'Ivoire

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 3.5.2

Recommendations

...............................76 3

6?Digital platforms ....................................77

3 .7?Cybersecurity .......................................77 3.7.1

Current state of cybersecurity in

Côte d'Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.7.2

Recommendations ...............................79

3

8?Summary of key recommendations .....................79

VI Notes References .............................................84

Chapter 4.

Nurture private investment

86
4 .1Fast-changing economy ...............................87

Strong growth in recent years

...........................87 Nascent export crop diversification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Improving infrastructure ..............................88

But weaknesses persist

...............................89

Private sector: The backbone of growth

...................91 4

2Investment opportunities and constraints ...............92

4.2.1 Agriculture and agribusiness ......................92 4.2.2

Manufacturing .................................95

4

3Five gaps

.98 4.3.1 Business environment ...........................98 4.3.2 Policy recommendations .........................101 4.3.3 Access to finance ...............................102 4.3.4 Policy recommendations ........................104 4.3.5 Transport and logistics ..........................106 4.3.6 Policy recommendations ........................108 4.3.7 Digital connectivity ..............................109 4.3.8 Policy recommendations ........................110 4.3.9

Skills

4.3.10

Policy recommendations ........................113

Annex 4

A Notes .117 References ............................................120

Chapter 5.

Harness global value chains

122
5 .1Structure of the economy .............................123 Strong, broad-based economic recovery .................123 5

2Global value chain integration ........................124

5.2.1 Global value chain integration at the aggregate and sectoral levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 5.2.2 Global value chain integration at the firm level ......127 5

3Global value chain integration and jobs

.................132 Positive contribution to job creation by manufacturing firms ...........................................132 5.3.1 Employment ...................................132 5.3.2

Wages .......................................133

5

4Policy implications .................................133

Annex 5

A Notes References ............................................139

Chapter 6.

Urbanize e ciently and

sustainably 140
6 .1Context and challenges ..............................141 6.1.1 Types of cities ..................................143 6

2Priorities: Financing, planning, connecting, and greening ..145

6

3Financing, the weakest area

..........................145 6.3.1 Financing distortions and constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .147 6

4Planning ..........................................148

6.4.1 Reform in planning ..............................149 6

5Connecting

6.5.1 Reform in connectivity ...........................151 6

6Greening

6.6.1 Reform in greening ..............................152 6 .7Conclusion ........................................153 References ............................................155

Spotlight.

Raise agricultural productivity

156

Agriculture, income growth, and poverty reduction

...........157 Productivity constraints and public spending in agriculture ....157 Public investment in agriculture ........................158 Investment in extension services .......................158 Notes References ............................................161

Chapter 7.

Empower women and girls

162

7.1Introduction ........................................163

7.2Key trends in gender equality over the past decade .......164

7.2.1 Human capital ..................................164 7.2.2 Economic opportunities .........................166 7.2.3 Voice and agency ...............................168

7.3Recent eorts to empower women ....................169

7.3.1 Legal and policy reforms targeting women and girls ...169 7.3.2 Programming to support women and girls ...........170

7.4Remaining challenges, opportunities, and future priorities ...170

7.4.1 Enhancing Ivorian women's human capital ...........171 7.4.2

Strengthening Ivorian women's economic

opportunities and property rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172 7.4.3

Reinforcing Ivorian women's agency and

reducing?violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172

7.5Conclusion .........................................174

Annex 7.A Innovative, evidence-based policy options for accelerating progress toward gender equality .....175

Human capital

Economic empowerment

..............................175

MAIN DOCUMENTContents

VII

Voice and agency

....................................175 Legal reform and enforcement .........................175 Notes References ............................................179

Chapter 8.

Include youth

182
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