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FEBRUARY 2017

DOWNTOWN ATLANTA

REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS

PRESENTED BY:

CENTRAL ATLANTA PROGRESS, INC. | ATLANTA DOWNTOWN IMPROVEMENT DISTRICT FINAL

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

The Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysisprovides an assessment of current trends and future real estate development potential for

Downtown Atlanta.

This assignment was conducted in 2016 & 2017 for Central Atlanta Progress by Bleakly Advisory Group and its sub consultant, Key Advisors.

Contents

Executive Summary

Study/Market Area Description

Major Trends Impacting Downtown Development

Future Real Estate Demand Potential

Development Proforma Analysis

Demographic/Economic/Real Estate Baseline Analysis

Bleakly Advisory Group ʹKen Bleakly, President

404.845.3550 www.blagroup.com

INTRODUCTION

2

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis3

Executive Summary

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

urban environment with 26,000 residents, 150,000 employees and millions of visitors annually. core of a larger 170,000 person three-mile market area that encompasses all or some over 20 separate neighborhoods that ring the Downtown Core. Participation in the accelerating future growth of the city of Atlanta Once in a generation development momentum in Downtown spurred by catalytic projects. The emergence of Downtown as a hub for next generation businesses/start-ups and technology Opportunities to capitalize on the transit-rich infrastructure environment. The Downtown Core has the potential to see significant population and Over the next 15 years the Downtown Core has the potential to add over 15,000 residents Over the next 15 years it can add 30,000 jobs to its current employment base. 4

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DOWNTOWN MARKET ANALYSIS

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

Downtown will experience significant demand for additional residential, retail, office and aggressive growthscenarios*--

Residential demand for over 14,000 rental units

Residential demand for over 1,000 owner-occupied units Demand for an additional 1 million SF of retail development Demand for an additional 3.5 million SF of office space. Additional demand sufficient for over 3,000 hotel rooms, or approximately 10-15 hotels.

historic growth rates over the past decade projected forward. The aggressive growth scenario assumes over

the next the City captures a higher percentage of regional growth and Downtown is a key beneficiary of that

5

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DOWNTOWN MARKET ANALYSIS

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

Downtown is experiencing a once in a generation rate of growth with a development pipeline of over $4.6 billion in new projects either under construction, approved or planned. A redevelopment of Underground Atlanta and the Atlanta Civic Center

Over 7,500 new residential units

Nine new hotels with over 2,300 additional rooms

Mercedes-Benz stadium and related development

Field redevelopment, the Stitch, Post Centennial Apartments, etc. This new development will provide another wave of catalytic projects similar to what Downtown experienced in the pre-and post Olympic period and will position Downtown well for additional growth projected for the next 15 years. 6

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DOWNTOWN MARKET ANALYSIS

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis7

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DOWNTOWN MARKET ANALYSIS

An analysis of five prototype developments in Downtown yielded the following key observations.

Residential

Achievable rents in Downtown dictate a maximum of 5-story stick-built units over a two story platform. High land and development costs require public subsidy for financial feasibility. Moderate land costs outside the central Downtown Core, e.g. South Downtown, offer strong potential for additional residential development but financing is challenging due to a lack of existing support for higher market rents. Creating residential in emerging areas will depend on success of catalytic pipeline projects (Underground, Civic Center, Turner Field) to validate these submarkets, much like Olympic subsidies did for initial loft projects in the 1990s. Hotel Hotel development in Downtown has been strong due to several factors: Achievable room rates support higher density construction, which lessens the impact of high land costs. This is particularly true for select service hotels that have proliferated in Downtown, particularly in and around the Centennial Park District. Full service hotels continue to be a difficult product to finance nationally and would likely require a public subsidy for financial viability in Downtown.

Office

The greatest hurdle to future office development in Downtown is achievable rent levels. The current top of the market is in the $25 to $28 PSF range, which is insufficient to support the very high cost of new construction ($375 to $425 PSF). Rent levels in the $38 to $42 PSF level would be necessary to support new constructionroughly

50% higher than current rents.

more than doubled former rent levels in its submarket.

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

8

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE DOWNTOWN MARKET STUDY

capitalize on its unique attributes and provide the option of reaching a higher level of growth and development--as represented by the aggressive growth scenario--by focusing on four central themes or objectives:

Downtown as a place where more residents

and students live

Downtown as a place where its residents,

surrounding neighbors and workers want to shop

Downtown as a cutting edge office

location, aligned with the new world of work in Downtown.

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

Study/Market Area Description

9

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

The Downtown Core

is the focus of this real estate market analysis and represents the principal geography under CAP influence.

This area includes

the historic economic center of the city of Atlanta and the metropolitan region.

Boundaries:

North: North Avenue

South: I-20

East: Boulevard

West: Northside

Drive

STUDY AREA

10

Downtown Core

Study Area

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

11

Reynoldstown

Glenwood

ParkGrant ParkSummerhillMechanicsville

Pittsburgh

Peoplestown

West End

Atlanta University

Center

Oakland

City

Vine City

English Ave.

Georgia Tech

West MidtownMidtown

Virginia

Highland

Old

Fourth

Ward Inman Park

Candler

Park

Edgewood

The Greater Downtown

Atlanta area is used as

a comparison for the

Downtown Core study

area. This area includes many redeveloped and redeveloping areas of 37%
63%

Greater Downtown

& Core Combined

Greater

Downtown &

Core Share of

City of Atlanta

Population, 2016

City of

Atlanta

GreaterDowntown & Core Combined

2016 (Est.) Population:

169,748

2016 (Est.)Households:

78,052

Downtown Core Only

2016 Est. Population:

26,850

2016 Est. Households:

11,985

AREA

CONTEXT

11

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

AREA

CONTEXT

12

Informing the demand

forecasts, the market analysis compares relevant real estate supply and demand conditions in the Downtown

Core study area against the

background of:

Greater Downtownʹa larger 3

mile radius market area

The City of Atlanta

The Atlanta Metropolitan Area

Downtown Core

Study Area

Greater Downtown

3 Mile Market Area

City of Atlanta

Downtown Atlanta Real Estate Market Analysis

The Downtown Core

is home to many tax exempt organizations, such as government and religious entities, in addition to the

Georgia World

Congress Center,

major sports venues and Oakland

Cemetery.

While these types

of entities provide stability for the area, they are exempt from paying property taxes onquotesdbs_dbs14.pdfusesText_20