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AProgramofStudies

onthe

SocioeconomicEffectsof

EarthquakePredictions

COMMITTEEONSOCIOECONOMICEFFECTSOF

EARTHQUAKEPREDICTIONS

CommissiononSociotechnicalSystems

NationalResearchCouncil

Anyopinions,findings,conclusions

orrecommendationsexpressedinthis publicationarethoseoftheauthor(s) anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviews oftheNationalScienceFoundation. i.a..., Board theirspecialcompetences andwithregardtoappropriatebalance. toprocedures ofmembersoftheNationalAcademy

Library

ofCongressCataloginginPublicationData

NationalResearchCouncil.Committee

onSocioeconomicEffectsofEarthquakePredic tions.

Aprogram

Bibliography:p.

HC79.D45N37

1978309.178-23259

ISBN0-309-02789-6

Availablefrom

OfficeofPublications

NationalAcademy

ofSciences

2101ConstitutionAvenue,N.W.

Washington,D.C.

20418

PrintedinUnitedStatesofAmerica

•I it

Preface

of

Implications

cussesthelikelihood thefuture. andPublicPolicy, 2 Grow ingout researchagenda teetostudytheproblem.

TheCommittee

and quakes:AScientific

2PanelonthePublic PolicyImplicationsofEarthquakePredictionoftheAdvisoryCom

mittee iii ivPreface fulfilltheseobjectives. each of theCollege sultanttotheCommitteefromtheUniversity ofPennsylvania,inprepar 2) ofJack

M.Weller,

abreast totheCommittee throughoutitswork.

LAUNORF.CARTER

Chairman

COMMITTEEONSOCIOECONOMICEFFECTS

OFEARTHQUAKEPREDICTIONS

California,

Chairman

University

ofCalifornia,LosAngeles,California

University,FortCollins,Colorado

College,Portland,Oregon

University

ofOregon,Eugene,Oregon

WhartonSchool,University

ofPennsylvania,Philadelphia,

Pennsylvania

Washington,Seattle,Washington

University,FortCollins,Colorado

Angeles,California

University

ofMassachusetts,Amherst,Massachusetts

SouthernCalifornia,LosAngeles,California

California,SantaBarbara,California

STAFF

CHARLESE.FRITZ,ExecutiveSecretary

GARYA.KREPS,StaffOfficer

HELEND.JOHNSON,AdministrativeSecretary

SHAROND.CARPENTER,Secretary

LIAISONREPRESENTATIVES

Washington,D.C.

Survey,Reston,Virginia

Department

ofHousingandUrbanDevelopment,Washington, D.C. vi

Contents

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

11

AssessmentofPredictionTechnology12

CharacteristicsofPredictions14

SocioeconomicConsequencesofPredictions15

StatusofResearchontheSocialandEconomic

Consequences

ofEarthquakePredictions17

Report

oftheNAS-NRCPanelonthePublicPolicy

Implications

ofEarthquakePrediction17

SomeCurrentResearch17

2CONCEPTUALFRAMEWORK20

ApproachtotheProblem20

OverviewoftheFramework22

ElementsoftheFramework24

Nature

ofthePrediction(Box1)24

StructureoftheCommunity(Box2)25

LegalandPoliticalConstraints(Box3)and

Policies

andOptions(Box4)26

StakesandOpportunities(Box5)28

vii viii

ConsequencesofaPrediction

Notes onChapters3-7

Contents

34
35

TypesofPredictionsandTheirEffects37

EarthquakePredictions

43

Response

48

Responses

49

Stakes49

Resources52

4ECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEARTHQUAKE

PREDICTIONS:BUSINESSFIRMSAND

THE

REGIONALECONOMY55

BehavioroftheFirm56

Adoption

ofAdjustments56

OrganizationalConditions58

TheRoleofMarkets62

Housing62

Employment

64

Capital65

HowThen,WilltheRegionalEconomyRespond?66

ResearchRecommendations73

StudiesoftheBehaviorofFirms73

RegionalEconomicResponse75

5GOVERNMENT78

Action

79

AuthenticatingandIssuingWarnings79

SocialConsequencesofPredictions80

StagesofGovernmentalAction80

Contentsix

TheRole

GovernmentalTasks

86

ResearchPerspectives89

GeneralResearchStrategies89

ResearchTopics91

ResearchRecommendations95

6STUDIESOFLEGALPROBLEMSINEARTHQUAKE

PREDICTION

97

ARecommendedFocusonLaw-RelatedResearch98

PertainingtoPolicy104

TheStatusoftheLaw107

Summary114

7STUDIESOFTHEGENERATIONAND

DISSEMINATION

OFEARTHQUAKEPREDICTIONS116

onthePredictionProcess116

InvolvedinEarthquakePredictions

119

GroupCharacteristics119

CommunityandOtherComponents

oftheSystem120

Predictions

120

RelationshipwithGovernment121

RelationshipwiththePublic122

OrganizationofthePredictionProcess123

PredictionInformation

125

GeneralRationale125

PredictionsandWarnings

126

AnalysisoftheStructureandPoliciesofNews

Organizations

128

Conclusion130

8RESEARCH STRATEGIESANDPRIORITIES131

Effects

ofEarthquakePredictions132

Monitoring132

TheoryBuilding137

PolicyAnalysis138

TimingofMonitoringResearch142

Research

143
toPolicyAnalysis 144

ResearchRecommendations145

MonitoringResearch145

149

PolicyAnalysis152

REFERENCES157

AProgramofStudies

onthe

SocioeconomicEffects

of

EarthquakePredictions

Summary

future made.Constructiveuse abouthowpeople andwarnings.Inadequateattention tothesocialconsequencesofusinga

Publicannouncement

ofanimpendingearthquakewillbediffused rapidlyandmayhavesubstantialeffects onthesocialsystemand economy withpredictions behavior. callygroundedbody

Thepurpose

ingfromearthquakepredictions andtosuggesttheresearchnecessaryto gram

Inparticular,it

Policy,

1 groundinformationforthepresentvolume.

Thenature

nant dow(theperiodduringwhichtheearthquake isexpectedtooccur).Vari ationsinany ofapredictionfor a90percentchance thefirst3days chance months2yearshence. Many kind likelytoprevailintheearlystages ofadevelopingpredictiontechnol chiefly studieshaveshown peopleandorganizationshaveprovedtohavedifficultyindealing with (andthedetails announceddangerperiodapproaches,arrives, and-perhaps-passes withoutincident. One producedunheralded. Much ofearthquake predictions.Much thisemphasis,theexercise isintendednottocastdoubtonthevalueof

Chapter1

state quences 3-7

Summary3

totheprediction theprediction,thedegree forth.Theamount ownlevels earthquakes,andthetimingandmagnitude oftheexpectedearthquake.

Peoplemayreacttothepredictioninavariety

ofwaysrangingfrom tomovein).Thecourse ofactionchosen,itishypothesized,could depend

Peoplewhoselivesaretightlyboundtothe

community-eithereconomi cally,throughemployment orrealestate,orsocially,throughfriends, relatives, weightheir costs oftheactionsavailabletothem. of generalpublic arelikelytoswaytheopinions ofothers. workplaces productsandemployment orwilltheyattempttoavoidthethreatof willfirmshave limitthebehavior quakepredictions willtheregionaleconomyrespond?

Chapter4discussestherange

ofadjustmentsopentofirmsandthe adjustments. choices

Twokinds

behavior,andanalysis ofregionaleconomicresponsesintermsofeco nomicmodelingtechniques.

Information,

ofinformation, determiningtheaccuracy ofinformationtransmittedandreceived,and documentingtheinterpretation ofinformationbytheorganization's decisionmakers.

Thenatureandinterpretation

quotesdbs_dbs14.pdfusesText_20