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The Crisis That Was Not Prevented:

Lessons for Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation

From: The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation,

FONDAD, January 2003, www.fondad.org

31068-The Crisis 14-03-2003 13:30 Pagina i

Forum on Debt and Development (FONDAD)

F ONDADis an independent policy research centre and forum for international discussion established in the Netherlands. Supported by a worldwide network of experts, it provides policy-oriented research on a range of North-South problems, with particular emphasis on international financial issues. Through research, seminars and publications,

FONDADaims to provide factual

background information and practical strategies for policymakers and other interested groups in industrial, developing and transition countries.

Director: Jan Joost Teunissen

From: The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation,

FONDAD, January 2003, www.fondad.org

31068-The Crisis 14-03-2003 13:30 Pagina ii

The Crisis That Was

Not Prevented

Lessons for Argentina,

the IMF, and Globalisation

Edited by

Jan Joost Teunissen and

Age Akkerman

FONDAD

The Hague

From: The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation,

FONDAD, January 2003, www.fondad.org

31068-The Crisis 14-03-2003 13:30 Pagina iii

ISBN: 90-74208-20-7

Copyright: Forum on Debt and Development (

FONDAD), 2003.

Permission must be obtained from

FONDADand the contributing authors prior to

any further reprints, republication, photocopying, or other use of this work. This publication was made possible thanks to the support of the Departme nt for Development Cooperation of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Additional copies may be ordered from

FONDADat

Noordeinde 107 A, 2514 GE The Hague, the Netherlands Tel: 31-70-3653820 Fax: 31-70-3463939 E-Mail: info@fondad.org From: The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation,

FONDAD, January 2003, www.fondad.org

31068-The Crisis 14-03-2003 13:30 Pagina iv

Contents

Acknowledgements vii

Notes on the Contributors viii

Abbreviations xi

Preface by José Antonio Ocampo xiii

1Introduction 1

Age Akkerman and Jan Joost Teunissen

An Overview of Some Studies on the Argentine Crisis 2

The Studies in this Book 10

The Role of the IMF 12

The Politics of Crisis Prevention and Management 13

2Argentina: A Case of Globalisation Gone Too Far

or Not Far Enough? 15

Dani Rodrik

The Too Simple Idea of Sovereign Risk Reduction 16

An Alternative Vision 19

3The Mistaken Assumptions of the IMF 22José Antonio Ocampo

Wrong Assumptions 25

Lessons 27

Current Conditions and Outlook 28

4Growth, Instability and the Crisis of Convertibility

in Argentina 32

José María Fanelli

Structural Breaks, Volatility, and the Macroeconomy 36

Asymmetries, Rigidities, and Dynamic Effects

as Sources of Instability 50

Concluding Remarks 61

From: The Crisis That Was Not Prevented: Argentina, the IMF, and Globalisation,

FONDAD, January 2003, www.fondad.org

31068-The Crisis 14-03-2003 13:30 Pagina v

5The Regional Fallout of ArgentinaÕs Crisis 68

Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Rogério Studart

Building Up Vulnerabilities 69

Investor Con"dence, Domestic Policies and

External Support 77

6The Puzzle of ArgentinaÕs Debt Problem: Virtual Dollar Creation? 81

Bernardo Lischinsky

Composition and Evolution of the Argentine Debt 82

When and Why Did the Debt Become a Problem? 93

Debt in the Context of a New Development Agenda 96

Argentina and Globalisation 98

7The Argentine Drama: A View from the IMF Board 101J. Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds

Argentina and the IMF: 1980-1991 102

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