Keywords: Argentina, currency crises, speculative attacks JEL Codes: and analyse its causes and consequences, we examine the entire record of a country that If MTI is greater than m plus two s, we say that the crisis is «very deep» or a
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Keywords: Argentina, currency crises, speculative attacks JEL Codes: and analyse its causes and consequences, we examine the entire record of a country that If MTI is greater than m plus two s, we say that the crisis is «very deep» or a
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CRISES AND CRASHES: ARGENTINA 1825-2002*
ANA MARI´A CERRO
Universidad Nacional de Tucuma´n, Argentina
aOSVALDO MELONI
Universidad Nacional de Tucuma´n, Argentina
aABSTRACT
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables in the neighbourhood of crises by means of graphic analysis, non-parametric and econometric techniques. We found that expansions in public expenditures as well as increases in the debt to GDP ratio and falls in the rate of growth of bank deposits contribute to spur the probability of crisis. Unfavourable external conditions, jointly with domestic imbalances, help to explain very deep crises or crashes. Keywords:Argentina, currency crises, speculative attacksJEL Codes:E32, N26
Received 21 August 2012. Accepted 13 May 2013. The authors thank Manuel Luis Cordomı´, Vı´ctor Elı´as, Sau´l Lizondo, Jose´Pineda, two anonymous referees of this journal and participants of
the 14 th IEA World Congress, the XXXVIII Annual Meeting of the Argentine Economic Association and the Workshop at the University of Tucuma ´n for valuable comments and suggestions to earlier versions of this paper and Juan Dip, Santiago Ruiz Nicolini and Sergio Sanso´n for their research
assistance. All remaining errors are ours. They gratefully acknowledge the support of the Consejo de Investigaciones de la Universidad Nacional de Tucuma´n (CIUNT) Grants 26/F 403 and 26/F408 and
the Agencia de Promocio ´n Cientı´fica y Tecnolo´gica, Project 21226-PICT 2004. The views expressed herein are those of the authors. a Professor of Economics, Universidad Nacional de Tucuma´n, Este 135, (4107) Yerba Buena,Provincia de Tucuma
´n, Argentina.
acerro@herrera.unt.edu.ar andomeloni@herrera.unt.edu.ar Revista de Historia Econo´mica,Journal of lberian and LatinAmerican Economic HistoryVol. 31, No. 2: 219-252. doi:10.1017/S021261091300013X&Instituto Figuerola, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 2013.219brought to you by COREView metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.ukprovided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid e-Archivo