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Global

ChemicalsOutlook 2020

After an eventful 2019 featuring a global

manufacturing downturn, major supply disruptions in chemicals and energy, government policy changes, increased momentum in plastics recycling, and both escalation and de-escalation in the US-

China trade war, 2020 will be a pivotal year

for the global petrochemical sector.

The overall manufacturing outlook remains

challenging, but a phase one US-China trade deal and the start of a de-escalation in trade tensions between the world"s No 1 and No 2 economies could boost

The global petrochemical sector is also

grappling with overcapacity in key areas such as ethylene and derivatives - polyethylene (PE) in particular. See the

ICIS outlook for key product chains amid

the challenging but stabilising macroeconomic backdrop.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020

v

As supply outweighs demand, what

pressure will US benzene face?

US benzene will

likely face pressure in 2020 due to length in supply and slow downstream demand.

By Tarun Raizada

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GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

60%
account for around 60% of US benzene production

“There may be some seasonal

restocking in early 2020, but this

Rob Peacock, ICIS aromatics analyst

1.72.02.32.62.93.2

Nov 19Oct 19Aug 19Jun 19Apr 19Mar 19Jan 19

$/gal

Source: ICIS

Benzene DDP USG Spot

Benzene FOB USG Contract

US BENZENE PRICE HISTORY

back to contents

Key impacts to the US benzene market

New wave of steam crackers

Imports from Asia

Cents/gal

Source: ICIS

BENZENE-TOLUENE SPREAD

-80-60-40-200

204060

80

Nov 19Sep 19Jul 19Apr 19Jan 19

Current-month US spot benzene - US spot toluene

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

ICIS Supply & Demand

Database

Stay vigilant of situations like this

year"s outlook for benzene"s supply and demand imbalance.

Anticipate how global

petrochemical markets will evolve and be ready to optimize opportunities in 2020.

ENHANCE YOUR STRATEGY HERE

back to contents vv

Prices in late 2019 were soft, with spot export

prices at multi-year lows and domestic contracts at their lowest since June 2016. as has occurred over the past three years, according to ICIS price history. But it remains to be seen if that will be the case in 2020.

The US-China trade war is likely to continue

weighing on sentiment, but economists expect the

US economy to continue to expand, albeit at a

slower rate than hoped for.

GDP growth will slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.3%

this year and 1.8% in 2020, according to the latest economists" survey by the National Association for

Business Economics (NABE).

Supply tighter in 2020

planned turnarounds scheduled in 2020.

US producer AmSty will begin a planned

30-day turnaround at the end of

January, with one of its styrene lines

Little optimism for 2020 as US styrene

faces headwinds

As the US styrene

market enters 2020 from a global manufacturing persistently soft market participants are not optimistic for the coming year.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

down for two weeks and the other for 30 days.

The plant"s ethylbenzene (EB) unit will also be

down for 30 days. INEOS Styrolution is likely to have a turnaround at its 770,000 tonne/year plant at Bayport, Texas, year, although this has

The company last

conducted maintenance at the

The combined

capacity of the two plants is almost

30% of total North

American capacity,

according to the

ICIS Supply and

Demand Database.

Demand softens

The US styrene market has been pressured by soft

derivative demand, especially from polystyrene slow period much of 2019.

Demand for PS and other industrial raw materials

has also been pressured by a global manufacturing slowdown, which has lowered consumption rates.

US styrene exports surged in 2019 and are

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on planned in 2020 back to contents z

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Oct 19Sep 19Oct 18

expected to continue in 2020.

For example, US October exports rose by 11% year

on year and are up by 42% year to date.

Much of the material has found its way to Europe.

Exports to The Netherlands have more than

doubled in 2019, with material shipped to the country at the second highest volume after

Mexico. Exports to Belgium are almost nine times

higher than in 2018.

Benzene length remains

Styrene takes most of its pricing direction from

upstream benzene, which will likely face downward pressure in 2020 due to length in supply and slow downstream demand.ȴ

International Maritime Organisation

Ζregulations on bunker fuels, which

has increased benzene supply as a byproduct account for around 60% of US benzene production.

Styrene is a chemical used to make latex and

polystyrene resins, which in turn are used to make plastic packaging, disposable cups and insulation.

INEOS Styrolution, LyondellBasell Chemical,

Pemex, Shell Chemicals Canada, Total

Petrochemicals and Westlake Styrene.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

US styrene

exports in 2019 and are expected in 2020

Source: ICIS

2019
2018
$/lb

Cents/lb

0.300.340.380.420.460.50

Oct 19Aug 19Jun 19Ap 19Jan 19

525456586062

Styrene FOB US Contract

Styrene FOB US Spot

‘000 tonnes

1,454 2018

Year to date

2,064 2019

Year to date

US STYRENE PRICE HISTORYUS STYRENE EXPORTS

Source: ICIS

back to contents

Will increasing consumption bring

balance back into the Acetone market?

The US acetone

market remained lengthy heading into 2020 despite lower import levels and lower production, but increasing consumption may bring the market into a more balanced position.

By Jessie Waldheim

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Import levels fall

It"s down

not just 5%

Cents/lb

Tonnes

US ACETONE PRICE HISTORYUS ACETONE IMPORTS

2025303540

Nov 19Sep 19Jul 19May 19Mar 19Jan 19

Acetone MMA DEL US Contract Price

Acetone DEL Midwest Contract Price

Acetone DEL USG Contract Price

Acetone CFR Houston Assessment Main Ports All Origins Barges Spot

Source: ICISSource: ICIS

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

Sep 19Jul 19May 19Mar 19Jan 19Nov 18Sep 18

back to contents

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

ANTI-DUMPING DUTY RATES

28.17%

Belgium

45.85%

South Africa

7.67-47.70%

South Korea

66.42-131.75%

Singapore

137.39-171.81%

Spain

Final Deposit Rate

Preliminary Deposit Rate

Current operating rates in the US are estimated at

The automotive slowdown also is weighing on

back to contents

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

US PHENOL PRICE HISTORY

Phenol DEL USG Contract Price Assessment Contract Month Contract Survey Monthly (Mid)

Cents/lb

GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2020 - AMERICAS

Late 2019 contracts followed a similarly steep

decline for benzene contract prices, which fell 37 cents/gal. US benzene remains under pressure as supply outweighs demand.

US phenol contract prices are formula based and

set at benzene plus an adder, most of which are set on a quarterly or longer term basis.

Global demand to determine strength

of US phenol

US phenol

contract prices are under pressure from a well-supplied upstream benzene market and low demand, but lower production may keep the market balanced.

By Jessie Waldheim

Quarterly adders had climbed for several quarters

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