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ihsmarkit.com

Presentation

© 2016 IHS Markit

Mark Eramo, VP Global Business Development ± Chemicals

Houston, TX

mark.eramo@ihsmarkit.com

Global Petrochemical Market Outlook

Planning For Growth Given Heightened Uncertainty In

Market Fundamentals

November 2016, Singapore

ASIA CHEMICAL CONFERENCE

© 2016 IHS Markit

Automotive /

transportation

Consumer products

Packaging

Building /

construction

Recreation / sport

Industrial

Medical

Pharmaceutical

Personal care

Textiles

Electrical /

electronics

Aircraft / aerospace

Business equipment

*I2%$I F+(0HF$I H1G8675K"B (1$%IH1* 02G(51 IH9H1*

CUSTOMERS

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN NATURAL

RESOURCES

Mining, drilling,

refining, gas processing Oil Gas Coal

Minerals

Renewables

2

Plastics and engineering

resins

Extruded films, pipe,

profiles, coatings, sheet, foams

Blow-molded parts

Composites

Synthetic fibers

Rubber products

Paints and coatings

Adhesives and sealants

Lubricants

Water treatment products

Cleaning products

Industrial chemicals

Flame retardants

Others

Formulated products /

performance materials

Commodities

Differentiated

commodities

Technical

specialties

Chemical

Intermediates

Olefins

(Ethylene, propylene, butylene)

Aromatics

(benzene, toluene, xylenes)

Chlor-akali

(chorine, caustic soda)

Others (ammonia,

phosphorous) Base

Chemicals

© 2016 IHS Markit

Planning For Growth Given

Heightened Uncertainty

AGENDA

3

Impact of Energy on Chemical

Investment Decisions.

Where are the major

investments in new capacity?

Energy extremes enabling

non-conventional capacity.

Declining CAPEX and rising

Mergers & Acquisitions

Strategic Considerations

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Energy & Economic Fundamentals Impact

Investment Decisions

Energy trends impact regional competitiveness and

profitability

Advantaged investments in North America and

China, see lower margins in low crude oil market.

Economy and energy assumptions drive key

decisions of location, feedstock, technology, VŃMOH"

Uncertainty results in delayed approvals; when

combined with steady growth leads to tighter market conditions in basic chemical value-chains

FUXGH RLO HQHUJ\ ³MP POH H[PUHPHV´ impacts

demand for chemicals and plastics. On the high end, LP ŃMQ ³GHVPUR\´ GHPMQG MQG RQ POH ORR HQG LP ŃMQ stimulate demand. 4

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Steady Increase In Crude Oil Price; Stable/Low Natural Gas In North America; Moderate Global Economic Growth 5 % Change, GDP

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1

United States 2.4 2.6 1.4 2.2 2.2

Canada 2.5 1.1 1.2 2.2 2.3

Eurozone 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6

United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.3

China 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.4

Japan -0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0

India 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.7

Brazil 0.1 -3.9 -3.2 0.6 2.2

Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.7 0.8 1.6

0 30
60
90
120
0 5 10 15 20

10111213141516171819202122

Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas

Natural GasWTIBrent

Global Crude Oil vs. USGC Natural Gas

Source: IHS © 2016 IHS

$/Barrel, Crude $/ MMBtu,

Natural Gas

$43.5/bbl

BASE CASE PLANNING SCENARIO:

© 2016 IHS Markit

Gas-to-Crude Ratio Favors North America

Investments Since 2010

0% 20% 40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0

90929496980002040608101214161820

Crude (WTI)Natural GasGas-to-Crude Ratio

USGC Natural Gas Versus WTI Crude Oil Pricing (US$ / MM BTU)

Source: IHS

Gas -to-Crude 6

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Impact of Changing Energy Dynamics On

Regional Chemical Capacity Additions

-30% 0% 30%
60%
90%
120%
-10 0 10 20 30
40

91939597990103050709111315171921

Gas -to -Crude Oil BTU Ratio, %

Million Metric Tons

ChinaAsia Less China (with India)

Middle EastNorth America

West EuropeGas-To-Crude BTU Ratio, %

Annual Change - Total Basic Chemicals Capacity:

Ethylene, Propylene, Methanol, Benzene, Paraxylene, Chlorine 7

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Impact of Changing Energy Dynamics On

Regional Chemical Capacity Additions

-30% 0% 30%
60%
90%
120%
-10 0 10 20 30
40

91939597990103050709111315171921

Gas -to -Crude Oil BTU Ratio, %

Million Metric Tons

ChinaAsia Less China (with India)

Middle EastNorth America

West EuropeGas-To-Crude BTU Ratio, %

Annual Change - Total Basic Chemicals Capacity:

Ethylene, Propylene, Methanol, Benzene, Paraxylene, Chlorine 8

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Impact of Changing Energy Dynamics On

Regional Chemical Capacity Additions

-30% 0% 30%
60%
90%
120%
-10 0 10 20 30
40

91939597990103050709111315171921

Gas -to -Crude Oil BTU Ratio, %

Million Metric Tons

ChinaAsia Less China (with India)

Middle EastNorth America

West EuropeGas-To-Crude BTU Ratio, %

Annual Change - Total Basic Chemicals Capacity:

Ethylene, Propylene, Methanol, Benzene, Paraxylene, Chlorine 9

Global Petrochemical Outlook / November 2016

© 2016 IHS Markit

Impact of Changing Energy Dynamics On

Regional Chemical Capacity Additions

-30% 0% 30%
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