ICRC: 150 years of humanitarian action
Speech by Peter Maurer president of the International Committee of the Red Cross
Gazette Part I September 14
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INNOVATION: MANAGING RISK NOT AVOIDING IT Evidence and
A Recent Chronology Of Public Risk Management In Government Mike Esbester. Senior Lecturer ... 3-D printers are machines that print out physical objects.
Innovation: Managing risk not avoiding it – Evidence and Case
A Recent Chronology Of Public Risk Management In Government Mike Esbester. Senior Lecturer ... 3-D printers are machines that print out physical objects.
Gazette Part I November 21
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CRIME PREVENTION AND COMMUNITY SAFETY:
while the police are judged positively by 80% of the population police services are also confronted with the same need to.
Liber Amicorum Antonio La Pergola
13. Annarosa La Pergola. 15. Jan Helgesen. 19. Ergun Özbudun. 21. Renato Cianfarani. 23. Pieter van Dijk. 25. THE FOUNDING OF THE VENICE COMMISSION.
One Hundred Years of Chemical Warfare: Research Deployment
service of the military—in the course of and as a consequence of World War I. This symbiosis was also a consequence of feedback effects between German and
Piloter et catalyser la transition vers une économie circulaire
Michael started in September 2015 his Ph.D. thesis in the fields of circular economy and sustainability of heavy vehicles at CentraleSupélec Université Paris-
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Evidence and Case Studies
fi fiflflfiflflfiflfiflfififlfi This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Advisor's Annual Report 2014, together with illustrative case studies. It should be cited as:Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and
Case Studies.
The Government Office for Science would like to thank the authors who contributed chapters, case studies and their time
towards this report and gave it freely. A full list of authors can be found on pages 6-8.This report is intended for:
Policy-makers, legislators, and a wide range of business people, professionals, researchers and other individuals whose
interests relate to the link between risk and innovation.The report project team was David Bennett, Graeme Collinson, Mike Edbury, Elizabeth Surkovic and Jack Wardle.
This report consists of contributions received from academia and industry and others outside of government. The views
expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation.Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014.
Evidence and Case Studies
fl A dvances in science and technology can yield significant societal benefits and drive economic growth. The challenge for society is to channel evidence about innovative technologies and their risks to improve decision making in the area of regulation and policy making. My annual report sets out my response as Chief Scientific Adviser to the challenges faced by decision makers when determining policy. It considers the different perspectives through which risk is viewed by members of the public, business and policy-makers. The report also seeks to understand the bases for individual and collective decisions on when and how to innovate. To produce my report I have drawn on the expertise of a broad range of experts and academics, who have set out the evidence about the challenges faced by policy makers and regulators. I have also sought and included notable case studies which illustrate the perspectives in the core of the report. This volume comprises that body of evidence and associated case studies. I am indebted to the authors of this volume for their contribution. The chapters and case studies represent the authors' personal views rather than those of the Government Office for Science but their wide ranging perspectives have provided important evidence for this project, and so have helped me develop the themes and conclusions of my own report.Mark Walport
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
November 2014
fiflfiflflfiflflfi1. Innovation, Risk And Government: Perspectives And Principles From The Social Sciences (pg. 13)
2. Future Global Trends In Innovation (pg. 25)
3. A Recent Chronology Of Public Risk Management In Government (pg. 35)
fiflfifl fi fifl fl fifl4. Making Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty: Strengthening Innovation Democracy (pg. 49)
5. Holding A Wider Conversation (pg. 63)
6. The Need For A Common Language (pg. 71)
fiflfiflfi fl fl7. How People Estimate Risks In Everyday Life (pg. 87)
8. Perceptions Of Risk (pg. 93)
fifl flfl9. Context Matters To Human Perception And Response (pg. 107)
10. Managing Existential Risk From Emerging Technologies (pg. 115)
fiflfifl fiflflfl fl fififl fifl11. Bringing It All Together (pg. 129)
12. Ultimately A Decision Has To Be Made (pg. 137)
flflfiflflfifl flfififl flCONTENTS
(pg. 145) (pg. 156)Nicholas Stern
I.G Patel Professor of Economics and Government, London School of Economics, President of the British Academy and
Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the EnvironmentRodney Boyd
Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political ScienceFergus Green
Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political ScienceReuben Finighan
Independent Consultant, Melbourne, Australia
Ian Goldin
Professor of Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, and Director of the Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford.
Simon Pollard
Pro-Vice-Chancellor, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Cranfield UniversityProfessor of Environmental Risk Management
Sophie Rocks
Lecturer in Emerging Risks, Cranfield University Institute for Environment, Health, Risks and Futures
Andy Stirling
Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) and Co-Director of the ESRC STEPS
Centre, University of Sussex
Tim O'Riordan
Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, NorwichDavid Spiegelhalter
Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk University of CambridgeDavid Halpern
Chief Executive, The Behavioural Insights Team
Owain Service
Managing Director, The Behavioural Insights Team
Nick Pidgeon
Professor of Environmental Psychology at Cardiff University, and Director of the Understanding Risk Research Group
Karen Henwood
Professor of Social Sciences at Cardiff UniversityJudith Petts
Professor of Environmental Risk Management and Pro-Vice-Chancellor, University of SouthamptonToby Ord
Research Fellow in the Oxford Martin School at the University of OxfordNick Beckstead
Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute and the Department of Philosophy at the University of Oxford
Joyce Tait
Professor, University of Edinburgh and Director of the Innogen InstituteLisa Jardine
Professor of Renaissance Studies at UCL
Former Chair of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology AuthorityMark Peplow fiflEditor
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
High Level Case Studies
Synthetic Biology
Lionel Clarke
co-Chairman UK Synthetic Biology Leadership CouncilRichard Kitney
Professor of BioMedical Systems Engineering at Imperial College, and Co-Director of The EPSRC National Centre for Synthetic Biology and Innovation and National Industrial Translation Centre for Synthetic Biology (SynBICITE) at Imperial CollegeRoland Jackson
Executive Chair of Sciencewise
Hydraulic Fracturing
Stephen Elliott
Chief Executive, Chemical Industries Association
Harry Huyton
Head of Climate Change, RSPB
Robert Mair
Sir Kirby Laing Professor of Civil Engineering, CambridgeUniversity
Flooding
Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Professor of Geography at the Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University and Distinguished Research Associate at theUniversity of Oxford
Paul B Sayers
Partner, Sayers and Partners LLP, UK and Senior Fellow, Environmental Change Institute, University of OxfordAndrew Watkinson
Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of EastAnglia
Natural Disasters and the Insurance Industry
Rowan Douglas
CEO Capital Science & Policy Practice, Willis Group & Chairman,Willis Research Network
Julia Slingo
Met Office Chief Scientist
Trevor Maynard
Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance, Lloyd's ofLondon
Innovation and Risk
Fukushima
Anthony Carrigan
Lecturer in Postcolonial Literatures and Cultures at University of LeedsThe High Value Manufacturing Catapult
Dick Elsy
Chief Executive, High Value Manufacturing CatapultL'Aquila
Chris Whitty
Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for InternationalDevelopment
Marcus Besley
Government Office for ScienceCommunicating the risk of climate changeJames LyonsSenior Lecturer, University of Exeter
Risk and Innovation in Developing Countries: A NewApproach to Governing GM Crops
Phil Macnaghten
Professor of Geography at Durham University, and Visiting Professor at University of Campinas - UNICAMP, BrazilSusana Carro-Ripalda
Senior Research Fellow at Durham University
Consistency and transparency in evidence-based
regulation: risk and precaution in regulation of bisphenol APatrick Miller
Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food StandardsAgency
Financial Crisis
Tom Sorell
Professor of Politics and Philosophy, University of WarwickMaking Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty
Neonicotinoid Insecticides and Insect Pollinators
Charles Godfray
Hope Professor at Oxford University and Director of the OxfordMartin Programme on the Future of Food
Angela McLean
All Souls Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University and Director of the Oxford Martin School Institute for EmergingInfections
Nanomaterials
Kamal Hossain
Director, Research and International at the National Physical Laboratory and Chair of the European Metrology ResearchAssociation (EURAMET)
Human Rights and Risk
Sabine Michalowski
Professor of Law, University of Essex, Director of the EssexTransitional Justice Network
Karen Hulme
Professor of Law, University of Essex, Consultant with the EssexBusiness and Human Rights Project
Nuclear: The Submariner's Perspective
Rear Admiral Nigel Guild
Chairman, Engineering Council
Adapting regulation to changing evidence on risks: delivering changes to pig inspectionPatrick Miller
Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food StandardsAgency
Accurate Communication of Medical Risk
Chris Cummins
Chancellor's Fellow in Linguistics and English Language at theUniversity of Edinburgh
Framing Risk - The Human Element
Social Machines: Managing Risk in a Web Enabled
WorldNigel Shadbolt
Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of Southampton and Chairman of the Open Data Institute, London Electronic Cigarettes: Trade-Offs and EstablishingAcceptability Thresholds
Fabian Schuppert
Research Fellow, Institute for Collaborative Research in theHumanities at Queen's University Belfast
Aum Shinrikyo and the Move to Violence
Matthew Francis
S enior Research Associate at Lancaster University, and Editor ofRadicalisationResearch.org
Kim Knott
Professor of Religious and Secular Studies at Lancaster University, and Global Uncertainties Leadership FellowManaging Risk Perception of Autonomous
Technologies: the Docklands Light Railway
Mike Esbester
Senior Lecturer in History at the University of Portsmouth and Co-Principal Investigator on the Institution of Occupational Safety and Health-funded project 'The Changing Legitimacy of Health and Safety at Work, 1960-2013'Telling the Stories of Climate Change
Esther Eidinow
Assistant Professor in Ancient Greek History, University ofNottingham
Nicky Marsh
Professor of English at the University of SouthamptonPatricia Waugh
Professor in the Department of English Studies at Durham University and also Principal Investigator on the 'Tipping Points' project located in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience,Durham University
Context and Futures
MMR, Bowel Disease, Autism and Measles
David Salisbury
Former Director of Immunisation, Department of Health, andVisiting Professor, Imperial College, London
Policy, Decision-Making and Existential Risk
Huw Price
Bertrand Russell Professor of Philosophy and Academic Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University ofCambridge
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
Executive Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of CambridgeMoving Things Forward - Governance and
Decision-making
A Case History on GM Crops
David Baulcombe
Royal Society Edward Penley Abraham Research Professor andRegius Professor of Botany at University of CambridgeStandards: Supporting emerging technologies as an
accelerator of innovationScott Steedman
Director of Standards, BSI
Innovation involves more than
just physical products. Some 78% of the UK economy is in services, where innovation plays a key role.Technological improvements will increase
productivity by as much as 25% and will generate a predicted $3.7 to $10.8 trillion for the world economy by 2025.The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
system in Bogota, Colombia is a good example of (city) government-led institutional innovation.East Asian economies such as Japan, Korea and China experienced major economic growth in the second half of the twentieth century, driven partly by 'catch-up innovation'. fiflfiflflfiflflfi fiflfifl fiflfiflfiflTwenty years ago,
there were fewer than 3 million people with internet access; now there are nearly 2.5 billion. JAPANSOUTH KOREA
CHINAAs digital access
increases , it is estimated that four billion people will be online by 2020, using up to 50 trillion gigabytes of data.Industrial processes will need to make
technological changes in order to meet domestic and regional targets on carbon emissions reductions. The EuropeanUnion aims to reduce carbon
emissions by 80% by 2050 from1990 levels. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisations (GAVI) and the Global Fund have worked to prevent 5.5 million and 6.5 million
deaths respectively since their inception.There were 200 million people
over the age of 60 in 1950. Today, that number has grown to nearly 800 million. By 2050, it is projected to stand at 2 billion.When Iceland's
erupted in 2010 it caused several of the largest global airports to shut down, resulting in anestimated $5 billion in losses.The African continent has twice as many mobile phones as the United States.
Students are not only attaining higher
levels of education, they are also moving to access this education. Growing numbers of people will have access to the best academic institutions. fi fl fi fiflRodney Boyd, Reuben Finighan,Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern (London School of Economics and Political Science)
The interplay between innovation and risk, and the social interactions between public and private sectors, are critical in fostering innovation and determining its effectiveness. 1TABLE 1
In today's globalized, rapidly-changing world, innovation is becoming ever more important as changes in technology, skills and knowledge increasingly affect countries' competitiveness externally and the well-being of their people internally. In the UK, innovation will continue to be a key source, perhaps the key source, of economic growth. However, competition is becoming ever more fierce, vital global resources are dwindling, and environmental problems are mounting, making innovation an ever-present challenge. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that the UK is falling behind many of its major trade competitors when it comes to research and development, which is closely linked to innovation (see Table 1). In shaping growth, innovation touches on all sectors and institutions. It is sometimes portrayed as the process of going from research laboratory to physical product, but that is much too narrow a view, particularly in advanced countries where the service sector is 70-80% of the economy.We can hope to sustain economic growth, and
continue improving quality of life, by changing the way we do things. But doing things differently involves embracing risk and uncertainty - risk of failure is an intrinsic aspect of innovation - and numerous market failures constrain potential innovation. Yet policies to foster innovation can be hard to get right and interpreting evidence about what works can be difficult; governments can fail, too. Nevertheless, through good theory, rigorous analysis and rich examples, we have learnt much that can provide useful guidance. By examining some important lessons and insights from economics and other social sciences, this chapter looks at the interplay between innovation and risk, and how social interactions between public and private actors are critical in fostering innovation and determining its effectiveness. Part A is conceptual in nature. It contains an overview of the defining characteristics of innovation, and its relationship to economic growth and to risk. In Part B, we discuss insights into innovation from the social sciences, providing real-world examples as much as possible. Finally, in Part C, we set out some broad recommendations for UK government policy that draw on the insights discussed. From our analysis, we identify pillars or foundations for first-class 'innovation infrastructure': a high-quality, merit-based system of education and training; substantial investment in basic research; a system of government-managed incentives that promote innovation via markets and entrepreneurship; and setting and investing in national innovation priorities. We also suggest associated policymaking guidelines. (i) Defining Innovation Innovation is about changing the way we do things. It is about pushing the frontier of what we know in the hope of generating new and useful ideas, and then putting them into practice. Successful innovation raises productivity and living standards, expanding the range of goods and services available for individuals and society as a whole, and allowing us to live longer, healthier lives. Joseph Schumpeter provides a classic definition of innovation as the development of new ideas (which he called "inventions") into products and processes, which are then spread across the market in a process he called diffusion 2 Innovation, as we shall use the term, encompasses the full chain from basic research to the diffusion of ideas, goods or services across an economy. Schumpeter envisaged this occurring in a linear way, in the sense of a distinct time sequence. In reality, these different stages overlap and interweave, as parts of a complex system that feeds back to and influences future developments 3 . Nonetheless, this model provides one starting point for thinking about innovation. Some additional features of the definition and scope of innovation, as we understand it, are as follows 4 Innovation is more than invention alone. Some of the greatest innovators imitate, borrow or adapt new ideas from other people, firms or places. The ideas that are put fiUNITED KINGDOM
OECDAVERAGE
EU-28AVERAGEUNITED
STATES
JAPAN KOREA1.73%2.40%
1.98%3.35%
2.79%4.36%
(% OF GDP, 2012) to work may not be individually original. Innovation is about putting new ideas into practice, not just creating or inventing them. Innovation is also more than just physical products, and takes place over all sectors of activity. As an example, 78% of the UK economy is services 5 , and many traditional products and associated industries are becoming turned into services (e.g. recorded music; private vehicle transport).Not all innovation is about making breakthroughs.
Incremental innovation
is the making of small improvements to existing technologies and practices. Such innovation often occurs through the process of practice, and while it is sometimes predictable in the short term it can lead to immense changes in the long term 6Radical (or
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