[PDF] Module 4: Epidemiology InvestigationEpidemiology Investigation



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1

Module 4:

Epidemiology InvestigationEpidemiology Investigation

Epidemiology Division

Analysis and Reporting Branch

www.adph.org/epi

Module Learning Objectives

Develop a case definition

Explain an epidemic curve

Develop an initial hypothesis

List three types of study design and a method of

2 statistical analysis

Calculate measures of association

Interpret significance of data

Determine if hypotheses are confirmed or

rejectedwww.adph.org/epi

Estimated Annual U.S. Foodborne

Disease Burden, 2011

Foodborne Illnesses

48 million

Hospitalizations

3

128,000

Deaths

3,000 Source: http://www.cdc.gov/foodborneburden/2011-foodborne-estimates.html#annual 2 www.adph.org/epi

Estimated Percents of Foodborne

Illnesses in U.S., 2011

4

Norovirus

58%

Staph. aureus

3%other

9%

Salmonella

11%Clostridium

perfringens

10%Campylobacter

9% www.adph.org/epi

Salmonellosis

56%

Cryptosporidiosis

6%E.coli (STEC)

Other *

1%5

AL 2011 Reported Diseases

Total = 2,260

3%

Individual norovirus

cases are not

Shigellosis

14%

Campylobacteriosis

12%Giardiasis

8% * Incudes Hep A, HepE, Listeriosis, and Vibriosis reportable to EPI, just if part of an outbreak www.adph.org/epi

SalmonellaOutbreak Timeline

Example

6

SMT WThFS

PatientEats

Contaminated

FoodBecomesIllVisits

Doctor

(Stool

Sample

Incubation timeDelay seeking

medical care

Source: CDC

Collected)

Salmonella

identifiedPublic

Health

receives sample

Serotyping

andDNA fingerprintingCase

Confirmed

asPartof

Outbreak

Specimen delivered

and growing

Uploaded

3 www.adph.org/epi

When two or more persons (from different

households) experience a similar illness resulting from the ingestion of a common food.

AL Foodborne Outbreak

(FBO) Definition 7 from the ingestion of a common food.

Exceptions: botulism and chemical poisoning

(1 case = outbreak) www.adph.org/epi

Make Epidemiologic Associations

Person, place, time

Systematically organize key information

8

Develop initial hypothesis

www.adph.org/epi Agent • Recently recognized pathogens • New FB modes of transmission

Foodborne Illness: Changing

Epidemiology

9 Host • Increasing elderly, immunocompromised • New eating habits • Increasing immigration, international travel

Environment

• Globalization of food supply • Centralization of food processing, large producers 4 www.adph.org/epi

Develop Initial Case Definition:

Counting Apples and Oranges

Set of criteria for deciding whether an individual should be classified as "a case"

Objective criteria

10 j

Links person to place and time

Outbreak-associated vs.normal background

Value of routine surveillance data

Primary vs.secondary cases

www.adph.org/epi

Revise Case Definitions

Precise definitions reduce

potential for misclassification:

Estimated 41% of enteric infections in U.S.

are foodborne; 11

Incomplete case history can haunt you;

Incorrectly classifying individuals can bias

results;

Make it harder to detect true associations.

www.adph.org/epi

Person: AL Outbreak Examples

12 5 www.adph.org/epi

Place: Common Exposure Location

Case 1 - restaurants A, B, C, D

Case 2 - restaurants B, C, E, F

Case 3 - restaurants A, B, G, H, I

13

Case 4 -restaurants B, J, K

What is the common exposure location?

www.adph.org/epi

Place: Common Exposure

Location (cont.)

Restaurant

Single restaurant location

Multiple restaurants (chain or same owner)

14

Multiple chains with a common distributor

Banquets, Birthday Parties, Wedding

Receptions, Conferences, Basketball Game,

School Field Trip, Summer Camp, etc.

www.adph.org/epi

Point-Source Exposure

15 6 www.adph.org/epi

Ongoing Exposure

16 www.adph.org/epi

Propagated or Person-to-Person

17 www.adph.org/epi

Hypothesis

18 "An unproved theory ...tentatively accepted to explain certain facts or to provide a basis for further investigation"provide a basis for further investigation

Source: Webster's New World

Dictionary, 3rd Edition

7 www.adph.org/epi

Example of Hypothesis

Food item consumed at the Smith Wedding

reception caused illnesses

Data needed to test information

What kind of food items were eaten?

19

Who ate the food item? Who did not eat?

How much did each person eat?

Illness onset (date and time)?

www.adph.org/epi

Develop Initial Hypothesis

Multiple hypotheses may be compatible with data

initially

Helps clarify

What is known

20

Wats ow

What is missing

Actions needed to gather

missing information www.adph.org/epi

Case Definition vs.Hypothesis

Case Definition

Classify cases vs.

controls

IncludesHypothesis

•Describe exposure to test analytically •Theory 21

Person

Place Time

SymptomsDo NOT include

hypothesis in case definition! 8 www.adph.org/epi

Unknown Causative Agent

Review what is known about cases

Symptoms, severity of disease

Events attended or anything unusual

Foods consumed and methods

22
of food preparation

Identify most likely agent(s)

Review references

Consultation

www.adph.org/epi 23
www.adph.org/epi

Known Causative Agent

Review what is known about the agent

Typical signs and symptoms

Modes of transmission

Foods in past outbreaks

I thi it ti i il t th i l

24

Is this situation similar to other previously

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